A value of information framework for assessing the trade-offs associated with uncertainty,duration, and cost of chemical toxicity testing

A number of investigators have explored the use of value of information (VOI) analysis to evaluate alternative information collection procedures in diverse decision-making contexts. This paper presents an analytic framework for determining the value of toxicity information used in risk-based decision making. The framework is specifically designed to explore the trade-offs between cost, timeliness, and uncertainty reduction associated with different toxicity-testing methodologies. The use of the proposed framework is demonstrated by two illustrative applications which, although based on simplified assumptions, show the insights that can be obtained through the use of VOI analysis. Specifically, these results suggest that timeliness of information collection has a significant impact on estimates of the VOI of chemical toxicity tests, even in the presence of smaller reductions in uncertainty. The framework introduces the concept of the expected value of delayed sample information, as an extension to the usual expected value of sample information, to accommodate the reductions in value resulting from delayed decision making. Our analysis also suggests that lower cost and higher throughput testing also may be beneficial in terms of public health benefits by increasing the number of substances that can be evaluated within a given budget. When the relative value is expressed in terms of return-on-investment per testing strategy, the differences can be substantial.     

Minority employment in the construction trades

This paper examines employment in the construction trades by race and skill level across 162 large U.S. metropolitan areas. The results reveal significant negative wage and positive scale effects on construction employment, especially for minorities and laborers, and thus imply that repeal of the Davis-Bacon Act, which requires “prevailing wages ” to be paid on federally funded construction projects, would yield substantial efficiency and equity gains. Conservative estimates suggest that Davis-Bacon repeal would increase construction employment by at least 36,000, including jobs for 27,000 minorities and 10,000 laborers. I am grateful to Burt Barnow, Barry Hirsch, and the anonymous referee for helpful comments on earlier drafts of this paper; Barry Hirsch and David Macpherson for preparing and thoroughly answering questions regarding their database provided to me through the Bureau of National Affairs; and Mindy Berry for careful research assistance.     

Factors that affect a victim's self-disclosure in father-daughter incest

Out of concern about the underreporting of father-daughter incest, the author has conducted a study in Virginia to test certain observations in the literature about the relatively small number of cases that come to light voluntarily. The findings point clearly to contributory case characteristics that can sensitize practitioners to the possibility of undisclosed incest.     

Political support for minimum wage legislation

Conclusion Even if minimum wage laws reduce employment opportunities for some workers, other individuals may benefit from their enactment. In particular, union members and residents of states with high wage levels would be expected to encourage their senators to vote in favor of minimum wage legislation. Examination of senators’ votes on the 1966 and 1974 minimum wage bills indicates that senators favoring passage of these bills are likely to come from states with high union membership and, to a lesser extent, high wage levels. The equations explaining senators’ votes on these bills were disaggregated by political party affiliation and length of membership in the Senate. Democrats were more likely than Republicans to support minimum wage bills. Virtually no difference was observed between senators who voted on both the 1966 and 1974 measures and those who voted on only one. Perhaps the most encouraging result reported is the similarity of coefficients generally observed for corresponding 1966 and 1974 equations. This similarity suggests that the equations reported herein could be used to predict votes on future minimum wage bills. The results suggest also that the general mode of analysis can be fruitfully applied to other economic legislation.     

Political support for minimum wage legislation: 1989

A model explaining senators’ votes on minimum wage increases in 1966 and 1974 was applied to the 1977 and 1989 votes with similar results. The extent of unionization in each state was positively associated with votes in favor of minimum wage increases. State wage levels were not significantly associated with senators’ votes. These results held for Republican senators as well as for all senators. However, neither wage levels nor unionization rates was a significant factor explaning Democrats’ votes on minimum wage increases.     

Legal Disposition of Inter-Group and Intra-Group Homicides

A study of the legal treatment of inter-group and intra-group homicides reveals that dispositional decisions are made on the basis of the sex and occupational prestige combinations of offender-victim pairs. Discriminant analysis of data concerning 444 defendants and 432 victims indicates that males accused of slaying females receive the most severe dispositions, while females held in the death of males are noticeably underpenalized. Final convictions are most severe for low status defendants alleged to have murdered high status victims. Contrary to earlier studies, there are no significant differences in legal treatment in terms of the racial combinations of the offender-victim pair. An interpretive approach to the legal process may explain these results: differential processing of homicides depends on the extent to which defendants and victims conform to the popular conception of violent criminality.     

Problem Gambling Within a Chinese Speaking Community

The purpose of this study was to obtain preliminary data on pathological gambling rates within a metropolitan Chinese community to determine if more costly extensive epidemiological surveys were justified. Two thousand survey questionnaires were distributed to parents through children attending a local Chinese speaking school. A response rate of 27.4% was obtained. Over a quarter of respondents were born overseas in either Mainland China or Hong Kong. Results indicated that gambling was not a popular activity with 60.0% of respondents stating that they never gambled. Of those who gambled, a third of respondents identified lotto as the preferred form. Using a Chinese translation version of the SOGS and a cut-off score of 10, a prevalence estimate of 2.9% for pathological gambling was found with males showing a higher rate (4.3%) as compared to females (1.6%). Respondents reporting a prior history of gambling in their country of origin were more likely to be classified as probable pathological gamblers. Despite the use of a sample of convenience, changes to the wording of two items in the Chinese translation of the SOGS and the possibility of false positive cases in the present study, it is concluded that further research into problem gambling in this community should be undertaken.