The variability of rainfall acidity

Two years of rainfall acidity data for the eastern United States were analyzed. The data consist of rainfall-event pH measurements from a nine station monitoring network. A spatio-temporal stochastic model, including deterministic components for seasonal variation and rainfall washout, and stochastic components for spatial, temporal, and measurement variation, was fitted to the data. The fitted autocorrelation structure from this model was used, in the process known as Kriging, to obtain BLUE contour maps of seasonal and rainfall adjusted yearly average pH over the monitoring region.     

The Concept of Oppression and the Development of a Social Theory of Disability

In this paper it is argued that a social theory of disability can best be developed through the use of the concept of oppression. This concept is outlined, and special emphasis is placed on the importance of the social origins of impairment in such an analysis. The ways in which this approach would utilise data gathered from other theoretical perspectives is indicated. General features of a theory of disability as oppression are specified.     

Integration of migrants — an extraordinary undertaking? An analysis of Swiss policy and handling of resident immigrants; a municipal example—Bern

Migration and multiculturalism are key topics in politics, in the media, in education and in the social sciences. It is a phenomenon that has been discussed again and again during the last fifteen years with the aim to find solutions. A theoretical set of points of consideration is established in the first chapter in order to understand how migration is running counter to the ‘normal’ condition and development of society, and tends to cause problems in various contexts. Case histories in the second chapter show how communities are handling the consequences of immigration in practice and in the framework of the specific prevailing national and welfare state structures, and especially how communities are meeting the challenge politically and with their system of social services. In the final chapter the most important findings are summarized.     

Stochastic blockmodels: First steps

A stochastic model is proposed for social networks in which the actors in a network are partitioned into subgroups called blocks. The model provides a stochastic generalization of the blockmodel. Estimation techniques are developed for the special case of a single relation social network, with blocks specified a priori. An extension of the model allows for tendencies toward reciprocation of ties beyond those explained by the partition. The extended model provides a one degree-of-freedom test of the model. A numerical example from the social network literature is used to illustrate the methods.     

Approximation spline de la prevision d'un processus fonctionnel autorégressif d'ordre 1

ABSTRACT We present a method to approximate and forecast, on an entire interval, a continuous-time process. For this purpose, we use the modelization of ARH(l) processes, defined by Bosq (1991). We deal with the practical problem of the discretization of the observed trajectories and approximate them by means of spline functions. We show by simulations that for well-chosen smoothing parameters, good prediction can be obtained in comparison with the “predictable” part of the process. Finally, we apply this model to forecast road traffic and compare it with a SARIMA model.     

Ill health and social conditions amongst migrants and refugees—the case of Sweden

The present article delineates the state of health and socioeconomic situation of migrants and refugees in Sweden. Special attention is given to refugees. Migrants appear to have more extensive health problems and a shorter longevity span than native Swedes. The refugees constitute an especially exposed group of migrants. Experiences in the home country that relate to organised violence is a specific problem for this group. It has been estimated that 20 to 25 per cent of all adult refugees who have arrived to Sweden during the recent years have experienced torture in their native countries. Swedish migrant and refugee policy operates according to a model of decentralisation, aiming to avoid ethnic segregation in the big city areas. However, the integration policy seems, in many instances, to have had a negative affect on the situation of the refugees. During the period of time, in which the refugees wait for a residence permit, they are not permitted to work. The long period of forced inactivity—in some instances up to a couple of years—seems frequently to have aggravated the health of the refugees. In addition it appears to contribute to the ever increasing animosity towards them.     

WHY FAMILY THERAPY SHOULD GO BEYOND HOMEOSTASIS: A KUHNIAN REPLY TO ARIEL,CAREL AND TYANO

The thesis of “Beyond Homeostasis” is (a) that the discourse of family therapists unquestionably shows that family therapists have tended to see homeostasis as a trait of families; and (b) that such a view of homeostasis is inconsistent with the systemic paradigm. Therefore, family therapy should go beyond such an understanding of homeostasis. Ariel et al. may have failed to grasp this argument; they have certainly chosen to ignore it. Ariel et al. have provided a logical empiricist explication of the nonsystemic version of homeostasis which is portrayed in the discourse of family therapists. I still argue that family therapy should go beyond such an understanding of homeostasis.     

An Analysis of Damage to U.S. Soybean Yields from 1982 Acid Deposition Levels

Experimental data were compiled for seven soybean varieties studied at four different locations in the U.S. for a period of one to three years. Three dose–response functions (linear, quadratic, and Weibull) were fitted, as appropriate, to the experimental data. Effects of acid deposition on soybean yields were estimated by combining variety-specific dose–response and production data. These calculations suggest that U.S. soybean production (2.2 billion bushels in 1982) would increase by 3.2 million bushels with a 10% reduction in 1982 hydrogen ion concentration levels in all counties where soybeans were grown, and by almost 70 million bushels with uniform improvement to pH 5.2. These estimates are based on many simplifying assumptions and are subject to several important sources of uncertainty explored in this study. The calculated changes are small in comparison with effects from other natural and anthropogenic stresses.     

Monitoring Family Therapy in Clinical Practice A Note on the Use of the Beavers-Timberlawn Family Evaluation Scale

This paper is based on a thesis completed for the degree of Master of Psychological Medicine at Monash University, Melbourne. The aim was to determine if an instrument could be used to determine changes in family dynamics quantitatively and objectively during the course of family therapy. A sample of six families was evaluated on several occasions during therapy using the Beavers-Timberlawn Family Evaluation Scale. The results are discussed in the light of the literature as it relates to outcome studies of family therapy. Certain conclusions are made regarding the process of therapy.