FINITE HORIZONS, INFINITE HORIZONS, and THE REAL INTEREST RATE

Using an overlapping-generations model in which households may have either finite or infinite horizons, I derive the implications of each horizon for the steady-state real interest rate. I then formulate an econometric model of the steady-state real interest rate and devise tests that can distinguish between finite and infinite horizons. These tests are applied to annual and quarterly U.S. data, which span the period 1875–1988. The results are inconsistent with finite horizons, and broadly consistent with infinite horizons.     

Determinants and Consequences of Social Trust*

This article provides an overview of social trust, examining its various aspects and components. Trust is best understood in a sociological sense by focusing on its important relational characteristic. Following this lead, the article discusses briefly how social trust relates to social capital and examines factors that shape the development of social trust, along with outcomes related to variations in trust, classifying them by analytical level (i.e., individual, community, group, organizational, and societal). The article concludes by assessing the strengths and weaknesses of existing research and by identifying some important questions that have not yet been adequately addressed.     

Discrete time modelling of disease incidence time series by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

Summary.  A stochastic discrete time version of the susceptible–infected–recovered model for infectious diseases is developed. Disease is transmitted within and between communities when infected and susceptible individuals interact. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to make inference about these unobserved populations and the unknown parameters of interest. The algorithm is designed specifically for modelling time series of reported measles cases although it can be adapted for other infectious diseases with permanent immunity. The application to observed measles incidence series motivates extensions to incorporate age structure as well as spatial epidemic coupling between communities.     

Triangle plots of three-level explanatory variables

Thalassaemias are genetic blood disorders which cause varying degrees of anaemia. Their geographical distribution suggests a compensating protection against malaria, which kills between 0.5 and 2.5 million people per year in developing countries. Neal Alexander describes a study in Papua New Guinea which estimated this association more directly, and a triangle plot which clarified, for himself and his non-statistician colleagues, the relative risks of malaria for those with none, one or two copies of the relevant haemoglobin mutation.     

Stabilizing flows in the legal field: illusions of permanence,intellectual property rights and the transnationalization of law

In this article I examine some of the problems that ‘modern’ legal theory poses for a consideration of the extended reach of social actors and institutions in time and space. While jurisprudence has begun to engage with the concept of globalization, it has done so in a relatively limited manner. Thus legal theory's encounters with highly visible transnational practices have, for the most part, resulted not in challenging the prevailing formal legal paradigm, but in a renewed if slightly modified search for a general jurisprudence that ultimately takes little account of the manner in which the work of law is carried out transnationally. In the first part of this article I examine how legal theory's concern to maintain its own integrity places limitations on its ability to examine the permeability of social boundaries. In the latter part I draw on critical human geography, post–structuralism and actor–network theory (ANT), to examine the manner in which transnational actors have been able to mobilize law, and in particular intellectual property rights (IPRs), as a necessary strategy for both maintaining the meanings of bio–technologies through time and space, and enrolling farmers into particular social networks.     

Yardstick competition and political agency problems

We examine how yardstick competition between jurisdictions affects the agency problem resulting from uncertainty about politicians (adverse selection) and their policies (moral hazard). We find that yardstick comparison can contribute both to disciplining and to selecting politicians.Earlier versions of this paper have circulated as Queen Mary Working Paper No. 444 and CORE Discussion Paper 2002/29. We would like to thank our editor, Maurice Salles, two anonymous referees, Mark Armstrong and Enrico Minelli for helpful comments and suggestions. We would also like to thank seminar participants at CORE, Queen Mary, Marseilles, and the 2002 Public Economic Theory conference, Université Paris 1.     

Which is the ‘self’ in ‘self‐interest’?

This article contends that homogenisation of the term ‘self‐interest’– in sociological and economic discourse – has resulted in many misconceptions about what particular doctrines of ‘self‐interest’ were instituted to achieve at certain historical periods and in specific cultural milieux. At its worst, the article argues, this has led to a misunderstanding of the import of particular doctrines of self interest,which are read in terms of general tradition – such as that which views self‐interested conduct as a natural faculty – rather than in terms of the context specific aims of those advocating them. The article attempts to show how, historically, there have been quite significant changes in the characterisation of the ‘self’ deemed to be ‘self‐interested’. In particular, it focuses on the ‘self’ of certain early modern conceptions of self interest, and suggests this creation is best viewed not as a subjectivity transcendentally presupposed by experience, but as one historically cultivated to counter the exigencies of particular circumstances – the disaster of perpetual ‘warre’ in 17th century Europe – and to meet the purposes of a certain way of life – existence in the civitas.     

Multiple imputation of missing data with ante-dependence covariance structure

A controlled clinical trial was conducted to investigate the efficacy effect of a chemical compound in the treatment of Premenstrual Dysphoric Disorder (PMDD). The data from the trial showed a non-monotone pattern of missing data and an ante-dependence covariance structure. A new analytical method for imputing the missing data with the ante-dependence covariance is proposed. The PMDD data are analysed by the non-imputation method and two imputation methods: the proposed method and the MCMC method.