Adaptable Careers: Maximizing Less and Exploring More

Today, young adults are expected to decide between educational, vocational, and job options and to make the best choice possible. Career literatures emphasize the importance of young adults' career decision making but also acknowledge the problems related to making these decisions. The authors argue that career counselors could support clients' intuitive processing of career information and help their clients to develop a positive and flexible view of the self and the environment while diminishing concerns about accountability for and irreversibility of career decisions. The authors argue that career adaptability rather than decision making should become the focal concept of career theory and practice.     

A note on cost-return calculations and decisions to migrate

In the notions of the aggregative cost-benefit migration models, this paper questions the assumption that prospective migrants behave as if they are not only concerned with, but are able to calculate expected pecuniary and non-pecuniary returns to re-location. Results of a survey which evaluates the role of cost-return calculations in decisions to migrate suggest that there may be population sub-groups who either do not care to make cost-returns calculations to migration, or who are unable to do so.     

On evaluating how well a biomarker can predict treatment response with survival data

One of the objectives of personalized medicine is to take treatment decisions based on a biomarker measurement. Therefore, it is often interesting to evaluate how well a biomarker can predict the response to a treatment. To do so, a popular methodology consists of using a regression model and testing for an interaction between treatment assignment and biomarker. However, the existence of an interaction is not sufficient for a biomarker to be predictive. It is only necessary. Hence, the use of the marker‐by‐treatment predictiveness curve has been recommended. In addition to evaluate how well a single continuous biomarker predicts treatment response, it can further help to define an optimal threshold. This curve displays the risk of a binary outcome as a function of the quantiles of the biomarker, for each treatment group. Methods that assume a binary outcome or rely on a proportional hazard model for a time‐to‐event outcome have been proposed to estimate this curve. In this work, we propose some extensions for censored data. They rely on a time‐dependent logistic model, and we propose to estimate this model via inverse probability of censoring weighting. We present simulations results and three applications to prostate cancer, liver cirrhosis, and lung cancer data. They suggest that a large number of events need to be observed to define a threshold with sufficient accuracy for clinical usefulness. They also illustrate that when the treatment effect varies with the time horizon which defines the outcome, then the optimal threshold also depends on this time horizon.     

Using Panel Data to Understand the Dynamics of Human Behavior in Response to Flooding

Insights into the dynamics of human behavior in response to flooding are urgently needed for the development of effective integrated flood risk management strategies, and for integrating human behavior in flood risk modeling. However, our understanding of the dynamics of risk perceptions, attitudes, individual recovery processes, as well as adaptive (i.e., risk reducing) intention and behavior are currently limited because of the predominant use of cross-sectional surveys in the flood risk domain. Here, we present the results from one of the first panel surveys in the flood risk domain covering a relatively long period of time (i.e., four years after a damaging event), three survey waves, and a wide range of topics relevant to the role of citizens in integrated flood risk management. The panel data, consisting of 227 individuals affected by the 2013 flood in Germany, were analyzed using repeated-measures ANOVA and latent class growth analysis (LCGA) to utilize the unique temporal dimension of the data set. Results show that attitudes, such as the respondents’ perceived responsibility within flood risk management, remain fairly stable over time. Changes are observed partly for risk perceptions and mainly for individual recovery and intentions to undertake risk-reducing measures. LCGA reveal heterogeneous recovery and adaptation trajectories that need to be taken into account in policies supporting individual recovery and stimulating societal preparedness. More panel studies in the flood risk domain are needed to gain better insights into the dynamics of individual recovery, risk-reducing behavior, and associated risk and protective factors.     

Nonparametric Estimation of the Number of Drug Users in Hong Kong Using Repeated Multiple Lists

We update a previous approach to the estimation of the size of an open population when there are multiple lists at each time point. Our motivation is 35 years of longitudinal data on the detection of drug users by the Central Registry of Drug Abuse in Hong Kong. We develop a two‐stage smoothing spline approach. This gives a flexible and easily implemented alternative to the previous method which was based on kernel smoothing. The new method retains the property of reducing the variability of the individual estimates at each time point. We evaluate the new method by means of a simulation study that includes an examination of the effects of variable selection. The new method is then applied to data collected by the Central Registry of Drug Abuse. The parameter estimates obtained are compared with the well known Jolly–Seber estimates based on single capture methods.     

Testing Hypotheses in Nonparametric Models of Production

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) and free disposal hull (FDH) estimators are widely used to estimate efficiency of production. Practitioners use DEA estimators far more frequently than FDH estimators, implicitly assuming that production sets are convex. Moreover, use of the constant returns to scale (CRS) version of the DEA estimator requires an assumption of CRS. Although bootstrap methods have been developed for making inference about the efficiencies of individual units, until now no methods exist for making consistent inference about differences in mean efficiency across groups of producers or for testing hypotheses about model structure such as returns to scale or convexity of the production set. We use central limit theorem results from our previous work to develop additional theoretical results permitting consistent tests of model structure and provide Monte Carlo evidence on the performance of the tests in terms of size and power. In addition, the variable returns to scale version of the DEA estimator is proved to attain the faster convergence rate of the CRS-DEA estimator under CRS. Using a sample of U.S. commercial banks, we test and reject convexity of the production set, calling into question results from numerous banking studies that have imposed convexity assumptions. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

阅读毛泽东文本：认识论问题

毛泽东的认识论并非严格意义上的经验主义,而是经验主义和理性主义的混合物。研究毛泽东的思想需要理论干预,应将其文本看作理论推演的实体,并关注文本中现有的理论主张、合乎逻辑的假设和建构方式及其相互间的关系以及这些关系的一致性和连贯性程度。     

Ordering competition: the interactional accomplishment of the sale of art and antiques at auction

Auctions provide an institutional solution to a social problem; they enable the legitimate pricing and exchange of goods where those goods are of uncertain value. In turn, auctions raise a number of social and organizational issues that are resolved within the interaction that arise in sales by auction. In this paper, we examine sales of fine art, antiques and objets d'art and explore the ways in which auctioneers mediate competition between buyers and establish a value for goods. In particular, we explore how bids are elicited, co-ordinated and revealed so as to rapidly escalate the price of goods in a transparent manner that enables the legitimate valuation and exchange of goods. In directing attention towards the significance of the social interaction, including talk, visual and material conduct, the paper contributes to the growing corpus of ethnographic studies of markets. It suggests that to understand the operation of markets and their outcomes, and to unpack issues of agency, trust and practice, we need to place the 'interaction order' at the heart of analytic agenda.     

Urge to Gamble in Problem Gamblers Exposed to a Casino Environment

Cue-reactivity has received increased attention in addiction research, though not for gambling in particular. We examined cue reactivity in 18 problem gamblers by accompanying them to a gaming casino and measuring their subjective urge to gamble over a 1-h period. Half of the sample was additionally exposed to a gambling-specific negative mood induction (NMI) manipulation via guided imagery. Overall, about two-thirds of the sample reported moderate to high-gambling urges during the casino exposure. Additionally, the NMI reduced cue-reactivity. Finally, gambling urges in both groups decreased over the course of the exposure sessions. These findings suggest that a majority of problem gamblers experience the urge to gamble when exposed to gambling cues and that the intensity of these urges decrease with time, especially in the presence of a gambling-relevant NMI. Cue exposure should be studied further as a potential tool in the treatment of problem gambling.