Score tests for zero inflation in generalized linear models

The authors develop score tests of goodness of fit for discrete generalized linear models against zero inflation. The binomial and Poisson models are treated as examples, and in the latter case the proposed test reduces to that of Broek (1995). Some simulation results and an illustrative example are presented.     

An Examination of the Commerce Department Leading-lndicator Approach

Bivariate time series models are built that describe the empirical relationships between industrial production and components of the Composite Index of Leading Indicators (CLI). This reveals the indicators' average lead times at all points of the business cycle, the forms of the distributed lags involved, and their ability to explain later movements in economic activity. The relationship between industrial production and the CLI is also examined and used to test the contribution of the CLI toward improving time series model forecasts of the 1980 and 1981 recessions.     

Classification-Error Models and Labor-Market Dynamics

Measurement error is often a severe problem in longitudinal data such as labor-market flows. Two correction methods have been used for labor-market flows, but the methods tend to adjust the data in opposite directions. One method shows a rigid labor market with long unemployment spells, whereas the other shows the opposite. Because the methods appear theoretically similar, one might interpret the differing results as an indictment of both procedures. This article documents and explains the differences between the two methods. More important, it argues that the differences result from the reliance of one method on assumptions that are theoretically implausible and rejected by the data.     

Postmodernism: A Dead End in Social Work Epistemology

Postmodernism continues to have a detrimental influence on social work, questioning the Enlightenment, criticizing established research methods, and challenging scientific authority. The promotion of postmodernism by editors of Social Work and the Journal of Social Work Education has elevated postmodernism, placing it on a par with theoretically guided and empirically based research. The inclusion of postmodernism in the 2008 Educational Policy and Accreditation Standards of the Council on Social Work Education and its 2015 sequel further erode the knowledge-building capacity of social work educators. In relation to other disciplines that have exploited empirical methods, social work’s stature will continue to ebb until postmodernism is rejected in favor of scientific methods for generating knowledge.     

On confidence limits for the difference of two binomial parameters

In the present article we suggest two new methods for calculating approximate confidence limits for the differences of the two binomial parameters. Different methods for determining the confidence interval are compared.     

Survival Distributions Satisfying Benford's Law

Hill stated that “An interesting open problem is to determine which common distributions (or mixtures thereof) satisfy Benford's law …”. This article quantifies compliance with Benford's law for several popular survival distributions. The traditional analysis of Benford's law considers its applicability to datasets. This article switches the emphasis to probability distributions that obey Benford's law.     

Union administrative practices: A comparative analysis

In response to growing challenges, many labor organizations are reevaluating themselves in an effort to become more efficient and effective. Their efforts, however, are limited by their frames of reference. Seldom do unions compare practices across labor movements. To expand these frames of reference we compare union administrative practices in three countries: Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Two specific areas of union administration are examined — human resource/personnel practices and strategic planning. Results from these countries are presented and analyzed to identify and explain similarities and differences.     

Asymptotic normality of MRPP statistics from invariance principles of u-statistics

Multi-response permutation procedures (MRPP) were recently introduced to test differences between a priori classified groups of objects ( Mielke, Berry Johnson, 1976; Mielke, 1979 ). The null distributions of the MRPP statistics were initially conjectured to be asymptotically normal for some specified conditions within the setting of a sequence of finite populations due to Madow ( 1948 ).

Asymptotic normality of a class of MRPP statistics (under the null hypothesis) is shown in two cases: (i) the setting which considers the populations to be the samples resulting from sequential independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) sampling (sampling from infinite populations) and (ii) the setting of a sequence of increasingly large finite populations (sampling from finite populations). The results are direct applications of the weak convergence of a U-statistic process in the i.i.d. case to a Brownian motion (Bhattacharyya and Sen, 1977) and of the weak convergence of a U-statistic process in the finite populations case to a Brownian bridge (Sen, 1972). The conditions are milder for the i.i.d. case than for the finite populations case. However, neither case provides a restriction of a practical consequence in applications of MRPP. In either case, convergence is shown to depend on the asymptotic ratios of the group sizes to the population size.     

Intended and initial settlement patterns of recent immigrants to the U.S., 1985–1990: A comparison of PUMS and INS public use files

At the time of entry into the U.S., immigrants are required to identify their ’intended’ destination to INS officials. They are not, however, required to remain in that location. If immigrant settlement patterns represent an evolutionary, dynamic system, it is likely that immigrants will adjust their location in the period shortly after arrival in the U.S. in response to various factors, leading to an ‘initial’ settlement system. Of interest in the following paper are the scale, direction and magnitude of adjustments made to the immigrant settlement system in the period shortly after arrival. The analysis utilizes the 1990 5 percent Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) and the 1985–90 Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) Public Use Tapes in order to explore the intended and initial (observed) settlement patterns of recent (1985–90) immigrants and to comment upon the applicability of these terms. Results indicate that the two settlement patterns are highly similar, despite apparently high levels of movement among recent arrivals. The analysis also touches upon the ‘come to stay’ question raised by Ellis and Wright (1998a), suggesting that the interpretation of the question is dependent upon immigrant status rather than when immigrants first arrived in the U.S. This research was funded by a grant from the National Science Foundation (97-08436). The author is solely responsible for the content of this research.