Semiparametric ARCH Models

This article introduces a semiparametric autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model that has conditional first and second moments given by autoregressive moving average and ARCH parametric formulations but a conditional density that is assumed only to be sufficiently smooth to be approximated by a nonparametric density estimator. For several particular conditional densities, the relative efficiency of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator is compared with maximum likelihood under correct specification. These potential efficiency gains for a fully adaptive procedure are compared in a Monte Carlo experiment with the observed gains from using the proposed semiparametric procedure, and it is found that the estimator captures a substantial proportion of the potential. The estimator is applied to daily stock returns from small firms that are found to exhibit conditional skewness and kurtosis and to the British pound to dollar exchange rate.     

Further Results on Order Statistics Generated by Two Simulation Methods

Uniform order statistics generated by two simulation methods are compared by means of Pitman’s measure of closeness. This measure, as a probability, is shown to be asymptotically 1/2. Some results are also established for fixed points of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) for a uniform order statistic. These fixed points are important for calculations involving the joint distribution of these order statistics.     

Carefair : Choice, Duty, and the Distribution of Care

Men’s care patterns are relatively inelastic despite dramaticshifts in women’s labor force participation. The articlerecommends a caregiving analogue to workfare that would usepolicy more aggressively to influence men’s choices betweenemployment and care. The "carefair" concept is defended by invokingtwo arguments for enforcing work duties common in liberal regimes:the moral hazard argument and the new paternalist competenceargument. The logics explicit in these arguments resonate substantiallywith theorists and practitioners in the liberal cultural milieuand can be appropriated to justify state intervention that wouldchallenge both patriarchal socialization patterns and economicincentives.     

It’s Not What You Know, but How You Use It: Statistical Knowledge and Adolescent Problem Gambling

This paper examined the nature of irrational gambling-related cognitions in a sample of 926 adolescents (mean age = 14.5 years) sampled from Australian schools. Students were differentiated according to gambling status and administered a series of items that assessed their understanding of objective odds, the nature of randomness, the role of skill in gambling, and the perceived profitability of gambling. The results confirmed previous findings that problem gamblers tend to be more irrational in their perceptions, as indicated by stronger beliefs in the role of skilful play in chance activities, and that gambling is a potentially profitable activity. However, counter intuitively, problem gamblers did not appear to have any poorer understanding of objective probabilities. These results are discussed in terms of Sevigny and Ladouceur’s (2004) concept of cognitive switching as well as psychological research concerning the role of emotional and motivational factors in the development of an illusion of control. The implications of these findings for gambling education programs are discussed.

Evolutionary politics? Union differences and political activities in the 1990s

Conclusion The political environment faced by U.S. unions has changed substantially over the past decade. The cost of election campaigns has increased dramatically and many interest groups have become actively involved in election financing. More importantly, the election of a Republican majority to Congress in 1994 caused a major change in the nature of unions' interactions with Washington legislators. Organized labor has faced a barrage of bills aimed at reducing the power of unions and minimizing their political involvement. Such efforts have also occurred across the country as conservative groups have attempted to qualify referenda that limit unions in some way. At a time when unions must organize new workers to survive as a viable force in society, these political challenges are especially serious matters.     

Correlates of load carriage and obstacle course performance among women

To examine correlates of the speed at which female soldiers carrying loads could cover 3.2 km on foot and traverse an obstacle course, 12 volunteers (mean +/- SD: 25.3 +/- 6 years, 166 +/- 7 cm, 61.3 +/- 7 kg) were timed over 3.2 km while carrying loads of 14, 27, and 41 kg, and while traversing an obstacle course with the two lighter loads. Pearson correlations showed that absolute VO_[2 max] and 3.2 km run time without a load were the best predictors of 3.2 km load carriage time for all loads. Also, larger subjects with greater muscle mass were able to carry the heaviest load faster than smaller, less muscular subjects, likely because the 41 kg load represented a smaller percentage of the former's bodyweight. Maximum number of sit-ups and push-ups, composite score of the Army Physical Fitness Test as well as body height were positively correlated with the speed at which some course segments were traversed.     

Social Area Analysis in Comparative Perspective: Moscow in 1897 as a Preindustrial City

Shevky-Bell social area analysis was a postwar attempt to isolate the essential dimensions delineating intraurban subareas in modern communities. The premise of the present paper is that the Shevky-Bell model has not been given adequate study through comparative research. The purpose of the study is to test the usefulness of the Shevky-Bell model in an analysis of prerevolutionary Moscow, a major city with a preindustrial urban structure. The basic finding reported in this paper is that the rotated factors that emerge in an analysis of prerevolutionary Moscow resemble the Shevky-Bell model. However, the rotated factor matrix more specifically fits a deviant case found earlier by Van Arsdol et al. of Kansas City and of Schwirian and Matre of Mayaguez, Puerto Rico, in which fertility appears more clearly as a dimension of social rank than of familism. The factors also tend to be complex, suggesting a less differentiated community system. These results suggest that an advanced stage of community development is a pre-condition of the Shevky-Bell model as it was originally formulated.