A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for the Evaluation of a Website

Consider a website and the surfers visiting its pages. A typical issue of interest, for example while monitoring an advertising campaign, concerns whether a specific page has been designed successfully, i.e. is able to attract surfers or address them to other pages within the site. We assume that the surfing behaviour is fully described by the transition probabilities from one page to another, so that a clickstream (sequence of consecutively visited pages) can be viewed as a finite-state-space Markov chain. We then implement a variety of hierarchical prior distributions on the multivariate logits of the transition probabilities and define, for each page, a content effect and a link effect. The former measures the attractiveness of the page due to its contents, while the latter signals its ability to suggest further interesting links within the site. Moreover, we define an additional effect, representing overall page success, which incorporates both effects previously described. Using WinBUGS, we provide estimates and credible intervals for each of the above effects and rank pages accordingly.     

Glass ceilings or sticky floors? A model of high-income law graduates

Minorities and females are underrepresented in the top-income quintile of law school graduates. Employing a binary logistic regression model, I examine whether this is due to a“glass ceiling” (an invisible barrier erected by third parties) or a“sticky floor” (self-imposed limitations regarding employment). My major finding is that being female, a minority, or disabled did not significantly reduce one's probability of making the top-income quintile once hours of work, experience, and other factors are taken into account. My findings directly contradict the large body of glass-ceiling literature and support the sticky-floor model. I thank the Law School Admission Council for funding this research. Helpful comments and suggestions were received from Robert Nelson of Northwestern University and the American Bar Foundation, Steven Conroy of the University of West Florida, and R. Kim Craft and Douglas Bonzo of Southern Utah University. The views expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the institutions or persons listed above.     

CORPORATE TAX INCIDENCE AND INEFFICIENCY WHEN CORPORATE AND NONCORPORATE GOODS ARE CLOSE SUBSTITUTES

An important deficiency in Harberger's [1962] model of corporate income taxation is its inability to consider both corporate and noncorporate production of the same good. Within-industry substitution has potentially major implications for both the excess burden and incidence of the corporate tax.
We analyze this within-industry substitution using a model in which each industry/sector contains corporate and noncorporate firms (with identical production functions) which produce goods that are close substitutes. The scope for considerable within-industry substitution of noncorporate for corporate capital leads to a very much larger excess burden than that in the Harberger model.     

Adoptive parents to children with severe developmental disabilities: A profile

A sample of 16 women and men who accompanied their adopted children with severe developmental disabilities to a medical appointment at Henry Ford Hospital's Multidisciplinary Care Clinic during the one-year period beginning July 1, 1988 are described in the context of their parental role vis-a-vis these children. Results of the study are presented through use of a six-part organizational scheme: demographic and social traits of the parents and their adopted children, the adopted children in family context, life satisfactions of the parents, adoption motives, adoption satisfactions, and humanization of the children.     

A case of suspected child abuse by an adolescent mother: The use of short-term psychotherapy

The incidence of pregnancy during adolescence has escalated dramatically in recent years, with an estimated half a million infants born to teenagers each year in the United States. A disproportionately high amount of child abuse and/or neglect is encountered among adolescent parents, underscoring the need for an effective intervention strategy. Short-term psychotherapy may be beneficial in these cases for forging a therapeutic alliance expeditiously and rigorously challenging the patient's resistance. The case described involves alleged abuse by a 16-year-old mother. An intervention was designed to clarify the allegations surrounding the abusive incident, help the mother confront episodes of loss in her own life and overcome feelings of hopelessness engendered by separation from her infant.     

log-logistic survival estimation based on failure-censored data

Approximations of the Bayesian estimators of the survival function based on the censored data of the log-logistic distribution are obtained under squared-error and log-odds squared-error loss functions. A numerical example is presented. Through a Monte Carlo simulation study, the behavior of the approximations found by Tierney & Kadane and Lindley are compared with a method suggested by Weiss & Howlader.     

Values and Vegetarianism: An Exploratory Analysis1

The American diet has changed substantially over the last few decades. These changes provide a test for social theory and have substantial effects on the demand for various food products, thus impacting U.S. agriculture. In this paper a rapidly growing dietary choice—vegetarianism—is explored. Prevalence of various forms of vegetarianism is estimated in a representative sample of a suburban population and factors that influence choice of a vegetarian diet are examined. About 7 percent of the sample report they are vegetarians. The prevalence of vegetarianism is not influenced by age, gender, or education, but individuals holding traditional values are less likely to be vegetarian than others. There also is some evidence mat individuals holding altruistic values are more likely than others to be vegetarians.     

A Process for Incorporating Comparative Risk into Environmental Policymaking in Louisiana

The goal of Louisiana's 1990–1991 comparative risk project, also called the Louisiana Environmental Action Plan (LEAP), was to incorporate risk assessment into state environmental planning and policymaking. Scientists, government officials, and citizens were brought together to estimate the relative risk to human health, natural resources, and quality of life posed by 33 selected environmental issues. The issues were then ranked according to their relative estimated risks. It was hoped that this ranking of "comparative risks" would enable state policymakers to target the most important environmental problems and allocate scarce public resources more rationally and efficiently. As a result of the project, the governor issued an Executive Order forming a permanent Public Advisory Committee to continue this type of comparative risk assessment in Louisiana.