Is rational choice humanity’s most distinctive trait?

The Greeks and the thinkers of the Enlightenment regarded reason as the defining quality of humankind. The Utilitarians limited it to the selection of means to any given end for action excluding the determination of moral values and social institutions. This became a postulate of classical and neoclassical economics borrowed by rational choice theory in sociology. James Coleman accepted as rational any action based on the actor's belief in its rationality, which would not rule out the delusions of psychotics. Despite this and other concessions that treat almost any explicable action as rational, sociologists have correctly criticized rational choice theory for ignoring the pervasive effects of socialization in achieving the internalization of norms and values. Rational choice theory also fails to illuminate human emotions and motivations, pictured in their full complexity in great literature.     

Two-Event Model for Carcinogenesis: Biological, Mathematical, and Statistical Considerations

A two-mutation model for carcinogenesis is reviewed. General principles in fitting the model to epidemiologic and experimental data are discussed, and some examples are given. A general solution to the model with time-dependent parameters is developed, and its use is illustrated by application to data from an experiment in which rats exposed to radon developed lung tumors.     

Michael Polanyi and the sociology of a free society

Michael Polanyi’s defense of freedom in science and society conflicts in major ways with Weber (process of rationalization, value neutrality of sociologists), Popper (objective knowledge, open society), and technological or oppositional sociology. Polanyi rejects positivism, utilitarianism, and Marxism, and defends freedom as a necessary condition for pursuit of spiritual ideals such as truth, justice, charity, and tolerance. Half truths about science seen as rejecting tradition, faith, authority, values, and the subjective, have helped bring valuable social results, but in the form taken by radical philosophical skepticism (doubt), also called objectivism, they also threaten freedom itself. A more truthful account is needed. Scientists and citizens who would maintain a free society are morally responsible persons, joined together in quest of truth and certain other ideals, demanding of themselves and each other that they be faithful to that quest. Polanyi’s thought has connections with that of Shils, and has implications for what Shils calls a consensual sociology. Louis H. Swartz teaches law, and is interested in the development of sociological theory and legal sociology, building upon the contributions of Polanyi and Shils.     

A Continuous Representation of the Family of Stable Law Distributions

Conventional parametric representations of stable law distributions do not allow all members of the family to be obtained as continuous limits of the parameters. Model building (or simulation) using such representations will be numerically unstable near such limits in consequence. Existing tables are not satisfactory near such limits as interpolation cannot be carried out. We show that these difficulties are overcome by using a new shifted Cartesian representation which characterizes the entire stable law family in a completely continuous way. Standardization is still possible with this representation so that tabulation, using just two bounded parameters, can be carried out. Its use is illustrated in a non-regular threshold estimation problem involving stable distributions which are discontinuous limits in conventional representations.     

Profile upper Confidence Limits from Discrete Data

When the data are discrete, standard approximate confidence limits often have coverage well below nominal for some parameter values. While ad hoc adjustments may largely solve this problem for particular cases, Kabaila & Lloyd (1997) gave a more systematic method of adjustment which leads to tight upper limits, which have coverage which is never below nominal and are as small as possible within a particular class. However, their computation for all but the simplest models is infeasible. This paper suggests modifying tight upper limits by an initial replacement of the unknown nuisance parameter vector by its profile maximum likelihood estimator. While the resulting limits no longer possess the optimal properties of tight limits exactly, the paper presents both numerical and theoretical evidence that the resulting coverage function is close to optimal. Moreover these profile upper limits are much (possibly many orders of magnitude) easier to compute than tight upper limits.     

A Stochastic Assessment of the Public Health Risks of the Use of Macrolide Antibiotics in Food Animals

Campylobacteriosis is an important food-borne illness with more than a million U.S. cases annually. Antibiotic treatment is usually not required. However, erythromycin, a macrolide antibiotic, is recommended for the treatment of severe cases. Therefore, it is considered a critically important antibiotic and given special attention as to the risk that food animal use will lead to resistant infections and compromised human treatment. To assess this risk, we used a retrospective approach; estimating the number of campylobacteriosis cases caused by specific meat consumption utilizing the preventable fraction. We then determined the number of cases with macrolide resistance Campylobacter spp. based on a linear model relating the resistance fraction to on-farm macrolide use. In this article, we considered the uncertainties in the parameter estimates, utilized a more elaborate model of resistance development and separated C. coli and C. jejuni . There are no published data for the probability of compromised treatment outcome due to macrolide resistance. Therefore, our estimates of compromised treatment outcome were based on data for fluoroquinolone-resistant infections. The conservative results show the human health risks are extremely low. For example, the predicted risk of suboptimal human treatment of infection with C. coli from swine is only 1 in 82 million; with a 95% chance it could be as high as 1 in 49 million. Risks from C. jejuni in poultry or beef are even less. Reduced antibiotic use can adversely impact animal health. These low human risks should be weighed against the alternative risks.     

The after-effects of a prolonged period of day-sleep on subjective sleep quality

The effects of day-sleep on the quality ofsleep are not restricted to the night-work period itself. Effects can be measured during night-sleep in the period following night-work. A study on these after-effects, using a self-report instrument to measure sleep quality, is described. A total of N=7O operators wcrc observed over five consecutive undisturbed nights after a working period of seven morning shifts (N= 35) and after a working period of seven night-shifts (N= 35). The quality of sleep during the third night after the night-shift period was still significantly worse than the third night after the rnorning-shift period. No differential (after-)effects were observed with respect to differences in sleep duration.     

THE RATE OF CONVERGENCE IN THE NORMAL APPROXIMATION FOR THE WILCOXON R-ESTIMATOR

We exploit the fact that the Wilcoxon score R-estimator of the slope in a linear regression model minimises Gini's mean difference of the residuals to obtain a Berry-Esseen rate of convergence result for the Wilcoxon R-estimator.     

Advocacy and ombudswork for children: implications of the Israeli experience

Israel's establishment of what is to be the first in a network of child advocacy councils is discussed in relation to child advocacy efforts in the United States. The work and structure of the Jerusalem Children's Council and its Ombudsman for Children is described. It is suggested that Israel's experience in establishing a well-functioning local child advocacy council provides a model for implementing the recommendation of the Joint Commission on the Mental Health of Children to establish a network of local child advocacy councils in the United States.