Errors in Estimates of Smoking-Related Deaths Derived from Nonsmoker Mortality

A number of recent analyses have computed present and future costs associated with a risk by estimating what would happen if the risk were absent. Two sources of bias are associated with this approach: (1) differences in confounding factors between present risk avoiders and risk takers, and (2) the difficulty of selecting an unbiased sample of risk avoiders. A staff memo from the Office of Technology Assessment used this approach to estimate mortality due to smoking. Numbers of deaths and age at death distributions of U.S. smokers and nonsmokers for all causes, all cancers, lung cancers, heart disease, and cerebrovascular lesions are used to assess the accuracy of these estimates. Large errors in the OTA estimates are found. Conditions are discussed that might help reduce errors from this approach.     

Free agency,owner incentives,and the national football league players association

In an effort to raise salaries in professional football, the National Football League Players Association (NFLPA) has demanded that NFL owners set aside 55 percent of gross revenues to fund a union wage scale. An alternative means of raising salaries, as evidenced by the relatively higher earnings in major league baseball and professional basketball, is through a free agent system wherein players are free to sell themselves in the open market. This paper examines the NFLPA’s claim that free agency will not work in the NFL because owners lack the financial incentive to win that would induce them to bid on free agents.     

Recent Improvements in Portraying Acts in Symbolic Interaction Behavioral Specimens

Behavioral specimens are slices of ongoing interaction that take particular behavioral observations from beginning to end and report the temporal sequence of the behaviors under investigation. This article takes the position that behavioral specimens as a symbolic interaction tool preserve the context of natural interaction in interpersonal relationships. Whereas this technique of data collection was first used by Barker and Wright in 1954, over 30 years ago, the format of the specimen presented here is new, because nonverbal behaviors are now recorded in a fashion that reflects the timing of the behaviors in relation to verbalizations. The intent of the new specimen format is to enhance the ecological validity of recordings through a more accurate representation of the contemporaneous nature of nonverbal behaviors and to convey a working knowledge of the actors under analysis.     

WINNING GAMES VERSUS WINNING CHAMPIONSHIPS: THE ECONOMICS OF FAN INTEREST AND TEAM PERFORMANCE

Championship prospects, as distinct from game-winning prospects, may contribute to a fan's interest in a particular sports team. If so, then both season length and the structure of championship playoffs help determine the equilibrium allocation of playing skills across the teams of a league. Evidence from a regression analysis of team attendance in baseball indicates that ticket demand depends in part on perceived flag-winning prospects. Several patterns in the winning percentages of league leaders in the major U.S. team sports are consistent with the perspective that championship considerations influence the allocation of playing skills.     

Deprivation and lifestyles in rural Wales. — I. Towards a cultural dimension

This paper reports on the preliminary findings of research into deprivation in mid-Wales. It argues that the current debate on rural deprivation has left many important questions unanswered. In particular, we still know relatively little about the extent of deprivation, the specific social groups affected by it, the particular experiences of these groups, and the importance of cultural dimensions to that experience. Indeed, the very term deprivation has become somewhat chaotic, and may subsume a number of different ways in which individuals and groups can become marginalised in rural areas. The two case studies in rural Wales discussed here give some indication of the extent and anatomy of marginalisation within particular communities. Perhaps more importantly they highlight the need to consider the importance of cultural marginalisation within a wider understanding of the problems of living in rural areas.     

Desired family size and its determinants among urban Nigerian women: A two-stage analysis

This paper proposes and carries out a two-stage analysis of the determinants of desired family size, using data gathered from a sample of women in the city of Ilorin, Nigeria. The analysis first focuses on differences between women who report numerical family size desires and those who report nonnumerical desires. Findings suggest that there are important differences between these two groups, but there is little variation in the actual number reported by those expressing numerical desires. Implications of these findings for survey design are discussed. In particular, the practice of forcing numerical responses by instructing interviewers to probe when women report nonnumerical desires is questioned.     

Determination of Less-Than-Lifetime Exposures to Point Source Emissions

This paper presents a method of estimating long-term exposures to point source emissions. The method consists of a Monte Carlo exposure model (PSEM or Point Source Exposure Model) that combines data on population mobility and mortality with information on daily activity patterns. The approach behind the model can be applied to a wide variety of exposure scenarios. In this paper, PSEM is used to characterize the range and distribution of lifetime equivalent doses received by inhalation of air contaminated by the emissions of a point source. The output of the model provides quantitative information on the dose, age, and gender of highly exposed individuals. The model is then used in an example risk assessment. Finally, future uses of the model's approach are discussed.