Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales

Summary.  A crucial issue in the current global warming debate is the effect of vegetation and soils on carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations in the atmosphere. Vegetation can extract CO₂ through photosynthesis, but respiration, decay of soil organic matter and disturbance effects such as fire return it to the atmosphere. The balance of these processes is the net carbon flux. To estimate the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales, we address the statistical problem of inference for the sum of multiple outputs from a complex deterministic computer code whose input parameters are uncertain. The code is a process model which simulates the carbon dynamics of vegetation and soils, including the amount of carbon that is stored as a result of photosynthesis and the amount that is returned to the atmosphere through respiration. The aggregation of outputs corresponding to multiple sites and types of vegetation in a region gives an estimate of the total carbon flux for that region over a period of time. Expert prior opinions are elicited for marginal uncertainty about the relevant input parameters and for correlations of inputs between sites. A Gaussian process model is used to build emulators of the multiple code outputs and Bayesian uncertainty analysis is then used to propagate uncertainty in the input parameters through to uncertainty on the aggregated output. Numerical results are presented for England and Wales in the year 2000. It is estimated that vegetation and soils in England and Wales constituted a net sink of 7.55 Mt C (1 Mt C = 10¹² g of carbon) in 2000, with standard deviation 0.56 Mt C resulting from the sources of uncertainty that are considered.     

论奥斯古德对昆明高峣社区的人类学研究

1938年夏天,美国年轻学者科尼利尔斯·奥斯古德为了履行与燕京大学的合作计划,不远万里来到滇池西岸一个名不见经传的小村庄调查.1961年,他开启尘封的笔记本,整理旧资料,补充新文献,完成了<旧中国的农村生活:对云南高峣的社区研究>.70年过去,重温科尼利尔斯·奥斯古德的研究历程,我们仍会从中获得许多有益的启示.     

Chemical risk communication through the Internet in Spain

In this work, some corporate websites of the chemical industry of Tarragona (Spain) are studied, analysing how the chemical trade associations and companies present information and/or encourage dialogue with the community on issues relating to the chemical risk and their environmental, health and safety (EHS) performance. The results suggest that the chemical industry in Tarragona uses the corporate websites mainly to disseminate information about its EHS commitments and performance, but they do not encourage dialogue with the community through the Internet.     

莎士比亚十四行诗中的多重复义

莎士比亚的语言是个久经探讨的问题。莎翁具有高深的语言锤炼艺术，他经常巧妙地运用多种修辞手法，文采飞扬，言简意深。在十四行诗中，莎士比亚多处使用多重复义，具体体现在对不同行业词语的使用，文化典故的运用，以及丰富多彩的意象上，这种释义的多重性体现了诗人丰富的思想内涵，增强了诗歌的审美意境。从诗歌三复义的角度，即语言复义、文化复义和美学复义，分析十四行诗中的多重复义，重审其美妙意境。     

Social impact Analysis in Australia: Policy Issues for the 1980s

Over the last ten years in Australia the social component of Australian Environmental Impact statements has gradually increased in size as the importance of Social Impact Analysis has been recognised. This commendable trend has not been without mishap, however, and there remain many areas largely ignored in Social Impact Assessment. This paper seeks to identify these areas, identifying value questions that need to be addressed in the preparation of the social impact component.     

学术水准是高校学报生存和发展的根本—本刊18年来编辑风格和学术印象回顾

学术水准是高校学报生存和发展的根本 ,本刊 18年来视学术水准为理想追求 ,在办刊宗旨、专栏设置、文章理论层面等几个方面力求所刊发文章具有较高的学术价值和社会效益     

论东汉王朝对北匈奴的政策

于谓汉欺之 ,谋欲犯塞 ;谓宜还南所掠生口 ,以慰安其意。”章帝从袁安议 ,许之 ,令“度辽及领中郎将庞奋倍雇南部所得生口 ,以还北虏 ;其南部斩首获生 ,计功受赏如常科”。企图平衡南、北匈奴的关系。由上可知 ,在光武帝建武二十七年至和帝永元元年 (公元 5 1- 89年 )期间 ,北匈奴或因“惧于见伐” ,或因欲与汉合市 ,多次遣使求和亲 ,而东汉王朝则出于“冀其交通 ,不复为寇”的目的 ,与北匈奴保持了时断时续的通使、合市关系。当然 ,由于北匈奴时时寇边侵掠以及东汉王朝在处理南、北匈奴问题上的摇摆性 ,东汉王朝对北匈奴采取的以通使、合市…     

传统文化与大众文化的互动

“五四”新文化运动之后 ,中国人与传统文化密不可分的关系已割裂。 10年文革浩劫过处 ,老百姓的马克思主义精神支柱几近崩塌 ,中国百姓的精神世界里剩下的仅仅是自相矛盾的奇妙混合。而在西方商品大潮中所形成的竞争意识和拜金主义因贫富差距的拉大而得以大行其道 ,社会风气趋于浮躁、迷茫和急功近利。当文学创作恢复和发扬现代知识分子的启蒙主义和现实战斗精神的时候 ,“五四”新文学的“文学的启蒙”传统也悄然崛起。当经济成为时代的巨型话语 ,以儒家文化为核心的传统人文话语既是面临挑战的境遇 ,也是得以复兴的契机。实现大众文化传统化就是建立一整套顺应自然、合乎人情、合乎客观规律、可持续发展的制度与理论 ,可以为全人类提供和谐共处的准绳。而实现传统文化大众化则必须以关注现实、中外合璧、革新教育为途径     

论石油存续企业的结构调整与优化改革的总体思路

石油存续企业的结构调整与优化，是当前石油企业深化改革的难点和重点问题。石油存续企业改革的核心应在明确定位的基础上，合理确定企业的主营业务与辅营业务，并以此为基础对现有的业务经营单位进行重组，最终对辅业经营单位进行结构调整和整合，实现企业的长期生存和发展。     

FINITE HORIZONS, INFINITE HORIZONS, and THE REAL INTEREST RATE

Using an overlapping-generations model in which households may have either finite or infinite horizons, I derive the implications of each horizon for the steady-state real interest rate. I then formulate an econometric model of the steady-state real interest rate and devise tests that can distinguish between finite and infinite horizons. These tests are applied to annual and quarterly U.S. data, which span the period 1875–1988. The results are inconsistent with finite horizons, and broadly consistent with infinite horizons.