A Bayesian method for classification and discrimination

We discuss Bayesian analyses of traditional normal-mixture models for classification and discrimination. The development involves application of an iterative resampling approach to Monte Carlo inference, commonly called Gibbs sampling, and demonstrates routine application. We stress the benefits of exact analyses over traditional classification and discrimination techniques, including the ease with which such analyses may be performed in a quite general setting, with possibly several normal-mixture components having different covariance matrices, the computation of exact posterior classification probabilities for observed data and for future cases to be classified, and posterior distributions for these probabilities that allow for assessment of second-level uncertainties in classification.     

State of the unions: Assessment by elite American labor leaders

One hundred and sixty-four elite union leaders in the United States completed a survey to assess the condition of the American labor movement and the factors affecting it. The respondents included high-level international union and state federation officers, central labor presidents, and 58 shop stewards. This study compares the responses of these labor officials and finds that they have similar, negative assessments of the condition of the American labor movement. The study also finds that these leaders agree that the most important factors affecting the labor movement are collective bargaining rights, union leadership, union member solidarity, and the NLRB.     

FINITE HORIZONS, INFINITE HORIZONS, and THE REAL INTEREST RATE

Using an overlapping-generations model in which households may have either finite or infinite horizons, I derive the implications of each horizon for the steady-state real interest rate. I then formulate an econometric model of the steady-state real interest rate and devise tests that can distinguish between finite and infinite horizons. These tests are applied to annual and quarterly U.S. data, which span the period 1875–1988. The results are inconsistent with finite horizons, and broadly consistent with infinite horizons.     

The Dialectic of Technology: Commentary on Warner and England1

Abstract Warner and England (1995) make a welcome argument for a technological science perspective for sociology based on a theory of humans as technological agents and an epistemology that includes ethical values. As with any sociological perspective, however, Warner and England's comments help to focus on and understand some aspects of social life and not others. This commentary provides a complementary focus by emphasizing the dialectical relationship between human agency and technological agency. Furthermore, I argue that a dialectical view is necessary for grounding Warner and England's theoretical argument and for acting on their ethical argument. Implications of a dialectical perspective for the meaning and politics of technology are explored. The paper concludes with a discussion of the suitability of “science” as a metaphor for sociology.     

Determinants and Consequences of Social Trust*

This article provides an overview of social trust, examining its various aspects and components. Trust is best understood in a sociological sense by focusing on its important relational characteristic. Following this lead, the article discusses briefly how social trust relates to social capital and examines factors that shape the development of social trust, along with outcomes related to variations in trust, classifying them by analytical level (i.e., individual, community, group, organizational, and societal). The article concludes by assessing the strengths and weaknesses of existing research and by identifying some important questions that have not yet been adequately addressed.     

Assimilation as multiracialism: The case of Singapore's Malays

The myths of meritocracy and multiracialism ‘explain’ between them both the ‘fairness’ of the Singapore system and the subordinate role of the non-Chinese minority races. They also purport to assure the minorities that they enjoy full status as members of the nation-building project and that their cultural and religious mores are embraced and protected within its framework. Using the Malay minority as its case study, and arguing from archival, oral, official government and secondary sources, this paper argues that the Singapore systems of meritocracy and multiracialism have not been concerned primarily with intercommunal tolerance since the 1970s, but are now programmes of assimilation of the racial minorities into a Chinese-dominated society.     

Culturalising the Abject: Islam,Law and Moral Panic in the West

This paper explores the construction of Islam as abject and the symbolic positioning of Muslims as being outside secular modernity in Australia through an analysis of the way the criminal legal process and perceptions of criminality are culturalised. The empirical focus is gang rape and the trials of Muslim youth on gang rape charges in Sydney between 2000–2003 which quickly became culturally inflected as ‘Muslim’ and ‘Lebanese’ by media reporting of the criminal trials and moral panic about them as source of social menace. Three dimensions of culturalisation of crime and the criminalisation of culture are identified in the criminal legal process and media reporting of it; firstly the cultural inflection of new laws against gang rape by their association with particular events and trials; secondly the introduction of ‘cultural defence’ by the accused as a mitigating factor in the criminal legal process; thirdly, media reporting and commentary on criminal cases which emphasize cultural explanations for individual criminal behaviour.     

Family Cap and Nonmarital Fertility: The Racial Conditioning of Policy Effects

Using an experimental design, this research examines the effect of the nation's first family cap on the births, abortions, and contraception use of over 8,000 women receiving public assistance in New Jersey. The family cap denies additional cash benefits to children conceived while the mother is receiving public assistance. Our research shows that a targeted welfare benefit manipulation does influence fertility behavior; however, the effect is conditioned by race. We find that Black women in the experimental group have a 21% lower birth rate and a 32% higher abortion rate than Black women in the control group. We do not find a birth effect for Hispanic or White women. We discuss the policy implications of the effects of a segmented family cap.