Social policy and the birthrate

The arguments for and against policy measures designed to increase birth rates in European countries are reviewed. The author concludes that the deterioration of the environment associated with the growth of population in developed countries outweighs any arguments in favor of policy measures to increase fertility.     

From making to being the excuse: An analysis of deception and verbal/nonverbal issues

Excuse-making is defined, and the issues of deception and verbal/nonverbal presentations are discussed in regard to the excuse process. Subsequently, the deception and verbal/nonverbal issues are described in greater detail in the context of whether the excuse occurs temporally after a negative outcome (retrospective), before a negative outcome (anticipatory), or as part of the characterological makeup of the person (incorporated). Going from retrospective to anticipatory to incorporated excuses, it is concluded that the role of nonverbal factors increases. Likewise, in the progression from making to being the excuse, it is argued that self- and other-deception also become more pervasive.     

Egyptian international labor migration and social processes: toward regional integration

This article reviews evidence that contemporary Egyptian international labor migration to oil-rich Arab countries has followed a classic social process which starts with a homo economicus phase, advances into a goal reorientation phase, and ends with the establishment of diaspora communities in destination societies. The history of Egyptian migration, current estimates of migration, the role of Egyptians in selected Arab countries, and emergent processes all were found to support the predictions of the social process model. Particularly important support comes from the finding that all social classes participated in this migration. For 1982, the Ministry for Foreign Affairs, based on individual consulate figures, reported 2.9 million migrants in oil-rich countries. Conclusions suggest the likelihood that Egyptian migration processes will promote economic and perhaps social integration in the region.     

Mixed model for analyzing geographic variability in mortality rates

"A mixed model is proposed for the analysis of geographic variability in mortality rates. In addition to demographic parameters and random geographic parameters, the model includes additional random-effects parameters to adjust for extra-Poisson variability. The model uses a gamma-Poisson distribution with a random scale parameter having an inverse gamma prior. An empirical Bayes approach is used to estimate relative risks for geographic regions and annual rates for demographic groups within each region. Lung cancer in Missouri is used to motivate and illustrate the procedure."     

Multistate life-tables and regression models

"A survey is given of the use of modern statistical techniques in event history analysis, and in particular in the study of multi-state life-tables in demography. Emphasis is placed on the interplay between partial likelihood and nonparametric maximum likelihood based methods, a) when analysing semi-Markov models or models with repeated spells, and b) in frailty models for unobservable heterogeneity."