Intuitive Toxicology: Expert and Lay Judgments of Chemical Risks

Human beings have always been intuitive toxicologists, relying on their senses of sight, taste, and smell to detect harmful or unsafe food, water, and air. As we have come to recognize that our senses are not adequate to assess the dangers inherent in exposure to a chemical substance, we have created the sciences of toxicology and risk assessment to perform this function. Yet despite this great effort to overcome the limitations of intuitive toxicology, it has become evident that even our best scientific methods still depend heavily on extrapolations and judgments in order to infer human health risks from animal data. Many observers have acknowledged the inherent subjectivity in the assessment of chemical risks and have indicated a need to examine the subjective or intuitive elements of expert and lay risk judgments. We have begun such an examination by surveying members of the Society of Toxicology and the lay public about basic toxicological concepts, assumptions, and interpretations. Our results demonstrate large differences between toxicologists and laypeople, as well as differences between toxicologists working in industry, academia, and government. In addition, we find that toxicologists are sharply divided in their opinions about the ability to predict a chemical's effect on human health on the basis of animal studies. We argue that these results place the problems of risk communication in a new light. Although the survey identifies misconceptions that experts should clarify for the public, it also suggests that controversies over chemical risks may be fueled as much by limitations of the science of risk assessment and disagreements among experts as by public misconceptions.     

Russki adventures

This case study, by Paul Beamish, was a prize-winner in the EFMD 1992 Annual Case Writing Competition, in the section entitled, ‘Entrepreneurship’. It concerns a daring new business venture in the Russian Caucasus Mountains.In mid-1991, Guy Crevasse and Andrei Kakov, the two major partners in Russki Adventures contemplated their next move. They had spent the last year and a half exploring the possibility of starting a helipcopter skiing operation in Russia.Their plan was to bring clients from Europe, North America, and Japan to the Caucasus Mountains to ski the vast areas of secluded mountain terrain made accessible by the use of helicopters and the recent business opportunities offered by ‘glasnost’.Three options for proceeding were being considered. The first was to proceed with the venture on their own, in the Caucasus Mountains area that had been made available to them by a Soviet government agency. The second was to accept the offer of partnership with Extreme Dreams, a French tour operator that had begun operations in the Caucasus region during the 1991 season. The final option was to wait, save their money and not proceed with the venture at this time.The data presented in the case includes information on: the company founders the helicopter skiing industry the Russian environment proposed market positioning of the business the potential alliance partners forecast financial analysis, under several scenarios.     

African American family life in societal context: Crisis and hope

Since 1965 hundreds of articles and books have been published about African American families. Nevertheless, our understanding of these families continues to be limited. There is a tendency to gloss over important within-group differences; thus, monolithic, stereotypic and inaccurance portrayals of Black family life are common. This paper sets aside debates of Black family pathology or viability, focusing instead on these families' essential character. The paper seeks to understand Black families on their own terms, locating them in relevant social, historical, political and cultural contexts. Key empirical patterns and trends reveal dramatic changes in Black family geographic location, headship, quality of life and socioeconomic status since 1950.A complex picture is revealed. There has been gradual but steady overall improvement alongside persistent, extreme racial disparties and pronounced class disparities among Black families. The proposed Black Family Socio-Ecological Context model specifies and connects institutional, interpersonal, environmental, temporal and cultural facts that shape the essential character of Black family life in such a way as to produce characteristics simultaneously shared and idiosyncratic. The model also provides an organized, systematic accounting of research and public policy issues relevant to the study of African American families.An early version co-authored with Richard A. English was presented during the National Council on Family Relations Meetings in Portland, Oregon, October 1980.     

丰水区筑坝截流——调丰补歉

该文从中国人口快速增长、经济建设加快、用水量逐年增大 ,加上气候变暖、少雨干旱将持续到 2 0 15年 ,我国北方水生态环境日趋恶化现状 ,说明在丰水区筑坝截流、调丰补歉势在必行 ,完全符合生态经济学发展原则和国际水法     

Pathways between education and health: a causal modelling approach

Summary.  The association of poor education and poor health has been consistently observed in many studies and in various countries. Thus far, studies examining the mechanisms underlying this association have looked at only a limited set of potential pathways. This study simultaneously examines six distinctive pathways, which have been hypothesized to link education and health and found support from previous studies. A causal analysis of education and health was performed using structural equation models. Data were used from six phases of the National Child Development Study, which is based on following up an initial sample of 17416 children who were born in 1958. The association between education and health appears to be explained by a combination of mechanisms: adolescent health and adult health behaviours for men and women, adult social class among men and parental social class among women. We conclude that improvements in population educational attainment may not automatically lead to improvements in population health, and that health policies for improving health and reducing health inequalities need to target specific causal pathways.     

Evaluation: Stakeholder-focused Criteria

Identifying and selecting suitable criteria is an important consideration in evaluating the performance of public sector organizations. Which criteria are chosen, and how they are weighted, will depend largely on the perspective being taken; different stakeholders (for example, clients, providers or commissioners) are likely to emphasize different criteria. In this paper a number of criteria are identified and an argument is developed to indicate which criteria are likely to be valued by various stakeholders. Furthermore, a number of approaches and mechanisms for evaluation are identified and the links between these, the criteria appropriate to them and the various stakeholders are made explicit. Finally, the issue of politics and the distribution of power between the stakeholders is addressed with a call for greater explicitness in using and balancing criteria (for example, as between professionals and the intended beneficiaries of services). In this way, while recognizing the inherent political nature of performance evaluation, the planning and implementation of services may be improved by a more mutually informed approach to evaluation.     

The Ecology of Family Guidance in Low-Income Mexican-American and European-American Families*

This two-part study applied an ecocultural perspective to socialization of daily and long-term goals in low-income Mexican-American and European-American families with children in third, fifth, and seventh grades. The first part of the study examined family members' participation and parents' socialization goals and guidance strategies for their children's daily household chores and homework activities. The second part of the study examined parents' long-term aspirations and guidance strategies for their children's educational, vocational, and moral development. For daily activities, results showed that in Mexican-American families both parents and siblings played important roles, whereas in European-American families parents were the primary socialization agents. As predicted, in both groups parents' expertise influenced their guidance strategies. Finally, Mexican-American and European-American parents differed in their relative endorsement of gender, relational, and self-reliance goals for household chores. For long-term goals, parents in both groups held high educational, vocational, and moral aspirations for their children. However, some parents of seventh-graders had lower educational and vocational aspirations than those of fifth- and third-graders. Although expertise consistently influenced Mexican-American parents' guidance strategies, the pattern for European-American parents was mixed. The discussion highlights between- and within-group differences in daily and long-term socialization practices with an emphasis on resources and vulnerabilities in the families.     

Physician-nurse migration to the United States: regional and health status origins in relation to legislation and policy

This article examines the origins of physicians and nurses who were admitted as permanent immigrants to the US from 1962-1979. Data are mainly from the Immigration and Naturalization Service. Countries used in the developmental analysis are only those whose population was estimated at 1 million or more as of mid-1979, encompassing 99% of the physicians and 97% of the nurses. Life expectancy at birth is the criterion used to differentiate origin countries by developmental dimension of health status. During the study period, health workers constituted about 30% of immigrants admitted to the US; of these, nurses and physicians constituted 72-82% throughout the study period. The period 1962-1979 has 4 distinct phases, marked by important legislative and/or policy changes; 1) 1962-1965, when the McCarran-Walter Act prevailed; 2) ending in 1968, the 2nd phase covers the transition mandated under the 1965 Immigration Act, which encouraged physician immigration; 3) the 3rd phase, 1969-1976, covers the transition to the 1976 Immigration and Nationality Act amendments; and 4) the 4th stage is 1977-1979. Results show that 1) under the McCarran-Walter Act, North America became the dominant physician source; 2) from 1966-1968, Asia attained dominance as the physician source and became even more predominant after 1968; 3) North America produced relatively few physicians in the early 1970s; 4) Europe produced substantially fewer physicians in the 1970s than in the 1960s; 5) South America, Africa, and Oceania were the lowest contributors of physicians; 6) during the McCarran-Walter years, North America and Europe produced almost 90% of nurses admitted into the US; 7) the 1965 Immigration Act and its aftermath resulted in Asia becoming the dominant source of nurses; 8) prior to the 1965 Immigration Act, Canada generated 20% of the aggregate number of physicians; 9) the Philippines surpassed Canada during the transition and India led after the transition; and 10) Canada supplied 30% of the nurses up through the transition, with the Philippines in the lead 1969-1979. Low health status countries were a relatively minor nurse source. Health status at the origin was a far less significant determinant of physician immigration than that of nurses. English language high and low health status country groups produced substantially more physician and nurse immigrants that their corresponding non-English language counterparts. The US attracted more physicians and nurses from less developed countries than more developed countries after 1968.     

Family reunification

The author explores the problem of family reunification in the context of international migration. The focus is on international and national legislation, policies, and provisions concerning family reunification. The need for international cooperation to resolve the problems arising from international migration and the desire to reunite families is noted. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)