Interest Organizations,Information, and Policy Innovation in the U.S. Congress1 2

Interest organizations are hypothesized to strongly affect public policy, but the evidence that they do so is mixed. This article argues that one reason for the disparity is a gap between theory and research: theory suggests that information provided by interest organizations should strongly influence elected officials, but there is no systematic research on its impact. We examine a potentially important source of information for members of the U.S. Congress—testimony at committee hearings—to ascertain if it affects the enactment of policy proposals. The data, based on content analysis of almost 1,000 testimonies on a stratified random sample of policy proposals, describe who testifies, their arguments, and the evidence they provide. Supporters of a proposal emphasize the importance of the problem being addressed, while opponents claim the proposed policy will be ineffective and try to reframe the debate. Information—particularly information regarding policy effectiveness—does affect the likelihood that a policy proposal will be enacted.     

Describing the Dynamics of Attention to TV Commercials: A Hierarchical Bayes Analysis of the Time to Zap an Ad

This paper provides insights into the dynamics of attention to TV commercials via an analysis of the length of time that commercials are viewed before being 'zapped'. The model, which incorporates a flexible baseline hazard rate and captures unobserved heterogeneity across both consumers and commercials using a hierarchical Bayes approach, is estimated on two datasets in which commercial viewing is captured by a passive online device that continually monitors a household's TV viewing. Consistent with previous findings in psychology about the nature of attentional engagement in TV viewing, baseline hazard rates are found to be non-monotonic. In addition, the data show considerable ad-to-ad and household-to-household heterogeneity in zapping behavior. While one of the datasets contains some information on characteristics of the ads, these data do not reveal any firm links between the ad heterogeneity and the ad characteristics. A number of methodological and computational issues arise in the hierarchical Bayes analysis.     

Trust in surveys and games – A methodological contribution on the influence of money and location

This paper explores methods to study trust. In a variety of settings, answers to survey questions and choices in a trust game are obtained from student sample pools. Some subjects are approached by mail and execute their task at home whereas others participate in classroom experiments. No differences between the results obtained by these methods are observed. Furthermore, one additional group plays the trust game with purely hypothetical payments, and another receives random lottery payments. This changes trust behavior dramatically, whereas trustworthiness is unaffected. Subjects without any financial incentives exhibit less trust and their trust choices are significantly correlated with survey trust answers. There is no such correlation for the corresponding choices with real payments.     

Regression Modelling of Disease Risk in Relation to Point Sources

We describe a class of models for the investigation of possible raised risk of disease around putative sources of environmental pollution. An adaptation of the point process method suggested by Diggle and Rowlingson is presented, allowing the use of routinely available aggregated data and incorporating the more general distance–risk model suggested by Elliott and co-workers. An application to data on cancers of the stomach around municipal solid waste incinerators is presented.     

CRIMINALS AS HEROES: LINKING SYMBOL TO STRUCTURE

This article examines the phenomenon of the heroic criminal and describes the structural preconditions necessary for his appearance. The author argues that these lawbreakers are best understood as cultural products that represent a concept of extra-legal justice. Their criminality, at least initially, is imputed with political meaning. Such symbols emerge when the rational, formal, bureaucratic justice of the state fails to reflect popular conceptions of justice. These symbolic figures are endemic in any culturally complex state society, although usually their appeal is to a small and relatively powerless public. But at times when the perception of law as unjust is widespread, the heroic criminal may emerge as a national figure of epic proportions. At such times a virtual epidemic of such figures may appear since entrepreneurs, motivated by either politics or profit, “market” such symbols to a receptive public. Using comparative analysis, the author presents briefcase studies of Jesse James, William Bonney (Billy the Kid), John Dillinger, and Charles Arthur (Pretty Boy) Floyd to demonstrate how they became legendary figures. The author then describes more contemporary symbols of extra-legal justice and the structural factors that inspired their heroic image.     

Estimating Probabilities Relevant to Calculating Relative Risk-Corrected Returns of Alternative Portfolios

In making all-or-none choices between alternative securities, Samuelson (1997b) suggested that investors of different risk-aversion should calculate from past samples of those securities their relevant Harmonic Means, or Geometric means, or other associative means representative of their respective degrees of relative-risk-aversion. Here it is shown how this learning procedure can be improved upon when you have prior knowledge that the securities have log-Normal distributions. Classical estimation theory, concerning consistent, efficient, and sufficient statistics, is shown to have a cash value by means of the calculable measure of (ex ante) “risk-corrected certainty equivalents.” Needed qualifications and testings are also presented.     

Some Issues of Particular Concern to Sociologists As Academic Administrators

As a sociologist who has served in deanships and other university administrative positions in the past 15 years, the author has been particularly concerned with race/class/gender issues in academia. This paper identified some of the issues and discussed the relevance of sociological training in addressing them.