Women's lives and rapid fertility decline: Some lessons from Bangladesh and Egypt

The recent experiences of Bangladesh and Egypt show thatfertility can sustain impressive declines even when women's lives remain severely constrained.Since the late 1970s, rural and urban areas in both countries have experienced steadydeclines in fertility, with recent declines in rural Bangladesh similar to those in ruralEgypt, despite lower levels of development and higher rates of poverty. This paperprovides an in-depth exploration of the demographic transition in these two societies andaddresses three basic questions: (1) have measurable improvements in economic opportunities forwomen been a factor in the fertility decline?; (2) can preexisting differences in gender systemsexplain the more rapid fertility decline in Bangladesh, despite the more modest economicachievements?; (3) can the development strategies adopted by the governments ofBangladesh and Egypt, be seen as additional factors in explaining the similar rural fertilitydeclines despite dissimilar economic circumstances? The paper concludes that neither gender systemsnor changes in women's opportunities appear to have contributed to declining fertility.Indeed, low levels of women's autonomy have posed no barrier to fertility decline in eithercountry. However, there is a case to be made that Bangladesh's distinct approach to development,with considerable emphasis on reaching the rural poor and women and a strong reliance onnongovernmental institutions, may have played a part in accelerating the transition in thatenvironment and in helping women to become more immediate beneficiaries of that process.

     

Marriage markets and nonmarital fertility in the United States

We merge census microdata with vital statistics data to examine the effect of women's marriage opportunities on nonmarital fertility rates and ratios across 75 U.S. metropolitan areas. Measures of the quantity and "quality" of marriageable men simultaneously specific for women's age, race, education, and place of residence reveal especially poor marriage prospects for highly educated black women. The effect of mate availability on nonmarital fertility is generally modest. Among white women, marriage opportunities are associated inversely with the nonmarital fertility rate, perhaps reflecting an increased likelihood that a premarital conception will be legitimated. Marriage opportunities also reduce nonmarital fertility ratios for young black and white women. The nonmarital fertility rate is lower among women whose marriage pool includes a large percentage of nonemployed males. Only a small proportion of the racial difference in nonmarital fertility appears attributable to differences in the marriage markets of black and of white women.     

Relations between demographic parameters

The mean life-expectancy e describes the average prospective life-time of an individual aged zero. This parameter can be explicitly described in terms of the survivorship distribution of the population. The Malthusian parameter r represents the asymptotic growth rate of a population. This parameter can be implicitly expressed in terms of the net-maternity distribution. The parameters e and r incompletely incorporate the age-specific fertility and mortality pattern of a population; distinct populations may have the same growth rate but different net-maternity functions; distinct populations may be characterized by the same mean life expectation but may have different survivorship distributions. This article analyzes a class of parameters called the entropy of a population (Demetrius, 1974a) which distinguishes between net-maternity functions with the same growth rate and also mortality distributions with the same mean life expectation. This class of parameters measures the convexity of the fertility and mortality distributions. This paper analyzes the relations between the entropy parameter and the standard demographic parameters.     

The History and Timing of Depression Onset as Predictors of Young Adult Self‐Esteem

Depression often emerges early in the lifecourse and is consistently shown to be associated with poor self‐esteem. The 3 main objectives of the current study are to (1) evaluate the association between a history major depression and self‐esteem in young adulthood, (2) assess the relationship between timing of depression onset and young adult self‐esteem, and (3) help rule out the alternative interpretation that the relationship between major depression and self‐esteem is due to state dependence bias stemming from recent depressive symptoms and stressful life events. To address these objectives we use data from a 2‐wave panel study based on a community sample of young adults in Miami‐Dade County, Florida (n=1,197). Results indicated that a history of major depression during sensitive periods of social development is associated with negative changes in self‐esteem over a 2‐year period during the transition to young adulthood. Among those with a history of depression, earlier onset was more problematic than later onset for young adult self‐esteem, although the difference disappeared once the level of self‐esteem 2 years prior was controlled. The linkages between the history and timing of depression onset with self‐esteem were observed net of recent depressive symptoms and stressful life events and are thus robust to an alternative interpretation of state dependence. The findings support the argument that major depression, especially if it develops earlier during child‐adolescent development, has negative consequences for one's self‐esteem.     

Choosing Sampling Effort for Recapture Experiments with Behavioural Response

One of the main aims of a recapture experiment is to estimate the unknown size, N of a closed population. Under the so-called behavioural model, individual capture probabilities change after the first capture. Unfortunately, the maximum likelihood estimator given by Zippin (1956) may give an infinite result and often has poor precision. Chaiyapong & Lloyd (1997) have given formulae for the asymptotic bias and variance as well as for the probability that the estimate is infinite.
The purpose of this article is to tabulate the inversions of the above cited formulae so that practitioners can plan the required capture effort. This paper develops simple approximations for the minimum capture effort required to achieve (i) no more than a certain probability of breakdown, (ii) a given relative standard error.     

Buehler confidence limits and nesting

The Buehler 1 –α upper confidence limit is as small as possible, subject to the constraints that its coverage probability is at least 1 –α and that it is a non‐decreasing function of a pre‐specified statistic T. This confidence limit has important biostatistical and reliability applications. Previous research has examined the way the choice of T affects the efficiency of the Buehler 1 –α upper confidence limit for a given value of α. This paper considers how T should be chosen when the Buehler limit is to be computed for a range of values of α. If T is allowed to depend on α then the Buehler limit is not necessarily a non‐increasing function of α, i.e. the limit is ‘non‐nesting’. Furthermore, non‐nesting occurs in standard and practical examples. Therefore, if the limit is to be computed for a range [α_L, α_U]of values of α, this paper suggests that T should be a carefully chosen approximate 1 –α_L upper limit for θ. The choice leads to Buehler limits that have high statistical efficiency and are nesting.     

How Academic Achievement,Attitudes, and Behaviors Relate to the Course of Substance Use During Adolescence: A 6‐Year,Multiwave National Longitudinal Study

Self‐report data regarding alcohol, cigarette, and marijuana use were collected biennially from ages 14 to 20 in a nationally representative panel sample of adolescents (N=1,897) from the Monitoring the Future study. Growth curve analyses were performed using hierarchical linear modeling to consider psychosocial background, motivation and school attitudes, and parental and peer influences at age 14 as predictors of concurrent substance use and change in substance use. Results indicated that school misbehavior and peer encouragement of misbehavior were positively associated with substance use at age 14 and with increased use over time; school bonding, school interest, school effort, academic achievement, and parental help with school were negatively associated. The protective effects of positive school attitudes and perceptions of high status connected to academics were stronger for low‐achieving compared with high‐achieving youth. Implications for a developmental perspective on substance use etiology and prevention are discussed.     

Latinas’ Transition to First Marriage: An Examination of Four Theoretical Perspectives

National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and census data are used to examine the effect of both individual‐ and contextual‐level determinants on Latinas’ transition to first marriage (n= 745). Hypotheses derived from 4 leading theories of marriage timing are evaluated. Discrete‐time event‐history models that control for clustering within Labor Market Areas suggest that foreign‐born Latina and Anglo women have virtually identical marriage trajectories. Analyses further demonstrate that Latinas’ individual human capital, and residence in areas characterized by a relatively large supply of single foreign‐born Latino men, are associated with higher probabilities of marriage, whereas women’s aggregate economic opportunities are correlated with the predicted postponement of first marriage.