Forecasting: A hybrid approach

It has recently been shown that the Box-Jenkins approach to forecasting time series is superior to an econometric approach over a relatively short horizon. The results here support this contention. A combination of the two approaches, however, proves to be clearly superior to either one separately. By taking account of changes in economic and weather related variables in a time series model, improved forecasts are obtained.     

Corporate social responsibility: an assessment of the enlightened self-interest model

Much recent discussion of corporate social responsibility has concerned operationality. Many activities subsumed under corporate social responsibility can be shown to be public or partially public goods. The theory of public goods can clarify and explain some complex problems of operationalizing the social responsibility doctrine. An examination of philanthropy provides some behavioral applications.     

The victim–offender overlap in late adulthood

This study contributes to the general knowledge of the victim–offender overlap by determining whether the phenomenon exists among older adults and whether known correlates of crime and victimization explain the relationship. Cross-sectional survey data from telephone interviews conducted with individuals 60 years and older (N = 2,000) residing in Arizona and Florida are used to estimate confirmatory factor models for both victimization and criminal offending. The results from a series of multivariate regression models show that victimization is associated with criminal offending. While factors such as low self-control, depression, and spending time in commercial drinking establishments partially attenuate the victimization–crime link, the statistically significant relationship persists in a multivariate context. Further testing indicates that the observed findings are robust across measurement and modeling strategies. Coupled with prior research, the results support the argument that the victim–offender overlap exists (and is difficult to explain) over the life course.     

Accommodating diverse clients' needs in evaluation capacity building: A case study of the Tobacco Control Evaluation Center

In this case study, we detail and analyze how the Tobacco Control Evaluation Center (TCEC), an evaluation technical assistance center that serves approximately 100 local tobacco control organizations in California, endeavors to build capacity among the state-funded local providers it serves by using evaluation capacity building activities with an utilization-focused evaluation framework. We call this a "blended approach" and describe these methods. Satisfaction and demand for TCEC services are documented to provide measurements for evaluation capacity building. Final evaluation report scores from two intervention cycles (2004-2007 and 2007-2010) submitted to the California Health Department, Tobacco Control Division are also assessed and compared. These measures demonstrate an increase in evaluation capacity by local projects under TCEC's purview.     

What clients of couple therapy model developers and their former students say about change, part II: model-independent common factors and an integrative framework

Proponents of the common factors movement in marriage and family therapy (MFT) suggest that, rather than specific models of therapy, elements common across models of therapy and common to the process of therapy itself are responsible for therapeutic change. This article-the second of two companion articles-reports on a study designed to further investigate common factors in couple therapy. We used grounded theory techniques to analyze data from interviews with MFT model developers Dr. Susan M. Johnson, Dr. Frank M. Dattilio, Dr. Richard C. Schwartz, former students of Dr. Johnson and Dr. Schwartz, and each of their clients who had been successful in couple therapy. This article reports model-independent variables, that is, general aspects of therapy that are not directly related to the therapist's model. Model-independent categories include client variables, therapist variables, the therapeutic alliance, therapeutic process, and expectancy and motivational factors, each with several subcategories. We also present a conceptual framework that outlines how model-dependent and model-independent common factors may interact to produce change. We discuss our findings and proposed framework in relation to the current common factors literature in psychology and MFT. We also discuss clinical, training, and research implications.     

The Savvy Caregiver Program: Impact of an Evidence-Based Intervention on the Well-Being of Ethnically Diverse Caregivers

This article reports on the impact of the Savvy Caregiver Program (SCP) on English-speaking caregivers of Hispanic, Black/African American, and Asian/Pacific Islander descent. Caregivers completed a questionnaire prior to study enrollment, at 6 and 12 months postenrollment. Caregivers in all 3 ethnic groups showed more caregiver competence, reduced depression, greater tolerance for care recipients’ memory problems, better management of their overall situation, and improved perception of that situation 6 months and 12 months post-enrollment. The study demonstrates that in the sample studied the SCP was as effective in helping ethnically diverse caregivers as it has shown to be with Caucasian caregivers.     

Managers in the Global Economy: A Multilevel Analysis

We examine individual‐ and country‐level determinants of managerial employment, using data from the 1989 to 2009 waves of the World Values and European Values Surveys (n = 89,336 employed adults in 59 countries). Reflecting the rise of the transnational capitalist class, we find that factors related to globalization and international political institutions are most strongly associated with opportunities to join the managerial class relative to factors related to the business‐cycle or development. Additionally, in a subset of countries with detailed occupational information, we find that global trade has a particularly strong, positive association with the odds of being a corporate manager in a large firm.     

Local volunteers respond to the Rena oil spill in Maketū, New Zealand

Following the MV Rena grounding and oil spill in the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand in October 2011, the Māori community of Maketū were quick to respond to the arrival of oil on their beaches. They asserted their rangatiratanga by establishing their marae as a base and successfully coordinated a clean-up by more than 450 volunteers, feeding these volunteers every day. We interviewed 11 clean-up leaders and volunteers in Maketū to gather information about how the oil spill affected people in the community and how they ensured the success of their clean-up efforts. Many volunteers returned to help with the clean-up day after day over several weeks. Concepts of kaitiakitanga and manaakitanga underpinned the work of the Maketū clean-up organisers. Participants attributed the success of the Maketū clean-up to the speed with which they responded, the support they received from their community and local businesses, and their local knowledge.     

MEANINGFUL REGRESSION AND ASSOCIATION MODELS FOR CLUSTERED ORDINAL DATA

Many proposed methods for analyzing clustered ordinal data focus on the regression model and consider the association structure within a cluster as a nuisance. However, the association structure is often of equal interest—for example, temporal association in longitudinal studies and association between responses to similar questions in a survey. We discuss the use, appropriateness, and interpretability of various latent variable and Markov models for the association structure and propose a new structure that exploits the ordinality of the response. The models are illustrated with a study concerning opinions regarding government spending and an analysis of stability and change in teenage marijuana use over time, where we reveal different behavioral patterns for boys and girls through a comprehensive investigation of individual response profiles.