Looking at Markov samplers through cusum path plots: a simple diagnostic idea

In this paper, we propose to monitor a Markov chain sampler using the cusum path plot of a chosen one-dimensional summary statistic. We argue that the cusum path plot can bring out, more effectively than the sequential plot, those aspects of a Markov sampler which tell the user how quickly or slowly the sampler is moving around in its sample space, in the direction of the summary statistic. The proposal is then illustrated in four examples which represent situations where the cusum path plot works well and not well. Moreover, a rigorous analysis is given for one of the examples. We conclude that the cusum path plot is an effective tool for convergence diagnostics of a Markov sampler and for comparing different Markov samplers.     

Pseudo-observations for competing risks with covariate dependent censoring

Regression analysis for competing risks data can be based on generalized estimating equations. For the case with right censored data, pseudo-values were proposed to solve the estimating equations. In this article we investigate robustness of the pseudo-values against violation of the assumption that the probability of not being lost to follow-up (un-censored) is independent of the covariates. Modified pseudo-values are proposed which rely on a correctly specified regression model for the censoring times. Bias and efficiency of these methods are compared in a simulation study. Further illustration of the differences is obtained in an application to bone marrow transplantation data and a corresponding sensitivity analysis.     

DO PARTIES MATTER FOR ECONOMIC OUTCOMES? A REGRESSION‐DISCONTINUITY APPROACH

A long‐standing issue in political economics is to what extent party control makes a difference in determining fiscal and economics policies. This question is very difficult to answer empirically because parties are not randomly selected to govern political entities. This article uses a regression‐discontinuity design, namely, party control changes discontinuously at 50% of the vote share, which can produce “near” experimental causal estimates of the effect of party control on economic outcomes. The method is applied to a large panel data set from Swedish local governments with a number of attractive features. The results show that there is an economically significant party effect: Left‐wing governments spend and tax 2–3% more than right‐wing governments. Left‐wing governments also have 7%lower unemployment rates, which is partly due to that left‐wing governments employ 4% more workers than right‐wing governments. (JEL: C21, D72, D78, H71, H72)     

Random Effect Threshold Models for Dose–Response Relationships with Repeated Measurements

A random threshold model for dose--response designs with repeated measurements is introduced. Inference procedures for this model are discussed. The framework of generalized linear models is used to propose a quasi-likelihood inference procedure. The feasibility of this approach is illustrated with the analysis of food science data concerning a forced choice sensory experiment.     

Gambling,Exchange Systems,and Moralities

History and ethnography show us that, across societies of the past and present, gambling varies considerably with respect to its organization, social meanings, and how it is regarded in moral terms. This paper presents a basic scheme for analyzing the relationship between gambling and society. A theoretical starting point is that reciprocity is fundamental to social and economic systems. An anthropological theory of exchange systems makes a broad distinction between a structural dimension (generalized versus balanced reciprocity) and a normative dimension (from voluntary to involuntary). A model of four basic forms of reciprocity, each having a characteristic exchange mode and morality, can thus be constructed. Gambling is here understood as an exchange system embedded in the reciprocal orders of society and having a necessary relationship to these; it can take on the characteristics of such an order or it can be regarded as conflicting with it. Much of the variation in the form and morality of gambling therefore emerges as systematic and explainable by a theory of forms of reciprocal exchange.     

Age Differences Between Spouses: Sociodemographic Variation and Selection

Throughout the world, marriages in which the husband is older than his wife are more common than same-age and women-older marriages. Yet there is surprisingly little systematic knowledge about within-country variation in spousal age differences. This study used comprehensive Swedish register data to investigate how age differences in newly married couples were associated with spouses' age, gender, education, income, and birthplace. Among both women and men, small age differences were most common among the highly educated, high-income earners, and native Swedes, whereas persons with low education, low income, and non-Swedish origin more often entered marriages with large age differences, particularly men-older marriages. Findings are discussed in relation to theoretical attempts to explain spousal age differences and sociodemographic selection into couples with different age relationships.     

ECONOMICS AND CLIMATE CHANGE: INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT IN A MULTI‐REGION WORLD

This paper develops a model that integrates the climate and the global economy—an integrated assessment model—with which different policy scenarios can be analyzed and compared. The model is a dynamic stochastic general‐equilibrium setup with a continuum of regions. Thus, it is a full stochastic general‐equilibrium version of RICE, Nordhaus’s pioneering multi‐region integrated assessment model. Like RICE, our model features traded fossil fuel but otherwise has no markets across regions—there is no insurance nor any intertemporal trade across them. The extreme form of market incompleteness is not fully realistic but arguably not a bad approximation of reality. Its major advantage is that, along with a set of reasonable assumptions on preferences, technology, and nature, it allows a closed‐form model solution. We use the model to assess the welfare consequences of carbon taxes that differ across as well as within oil‐consuming and ‐producing regions. We show that, surprisingly, only taxes on oil producers can improve the climate: taxes on oil consumers have no effect at all. The calibrated model suggests large differences in views on climate policy across regions.     

Finite Sample Comparison of Parametric,Semiparametric, and Wavelet Estimators of Fractional Integration

ABSTRACT

In this paper we compare through Monte Carlo simulations the finite sample properties of estimators of the fractional differencing parameter, d. This involves frequency domain, time domain, and wavelet based approaches, and we consider both parametric and semiparametric estimation methods. The estimators are briefly introduced and compared, and the criteria adopted for measuring finite sample performance are bias and root mean squared error. Most importantly, the simulations reveal that (1) the frequency domain maximum likelihood procedure is superior to the time domain parametric methods, (2) all the estimators are fairly robust to conditionally heteroscedastic errors, (3) the local polynomial Whittle and bias-reduced log-periodogram regression estimators are shown to be more robust to short-run dynamics than other semiparametric (frequency domain and wavelet) estimators and in some cases even outperform the time domain parametric methods, and (4) without sufficient trimming of scales the wavelet-based estimators are heavily biased.     

Scientization Under Pressure—The Problematic Role of Expert Bodies During the Handling of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Public Organization Review - This article focuses on the role of experts in the Norwegian decision-making process in central government during the crisis management of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is...     

Special Issue on The Scientization of Public Decision-Making Processes – the Relevance for the Handling of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Public Organization Review -