Population constraints on pooled surveys in demographic hazard modeling

In non-experimental research, data on the same population process may be collected simultaneously by more than one instrument. For example, in the present application, two sample surveys and a population birth registration system all collect observations on first births by age and year, while the two surveys additionally collect information on women’s education. To make maximum use of the three data sources, the survey data are pooled and the population data introduced as constraints in a logistic regression equation. Reductions in standard errors about the age and birth-cohort parameters of the regression equation in the order of three-quarters are obtained by introducing the population data as constraints. A halving of the standard errors about the education parameters is achieved by pooling observations from the larger survey dataset with those from the smaller survey. The percentage reduction in the standard errors through imposing population constraints is independent of the total survey sample size.     

民间说书与中国古代通俗小说的传播

中国古代的通俗小说主要是通过民间说书等艺术形式扩大其在民间的广泛影响的。民间艺人不仅多以通俗小说作为取材或演说的对象,而且对之进行了多方面的艺术加工,这才使通俗小说更加通俗易懂,更为民众所喜闻乐道。     

基于主成分分析的我国西部地区间产业结构转换能力评价

产业结构的演进和转换是经济发展的本质特征,也是促进经济持续稳定协调发展的关键。西部地区产业结构转换能力的地区差异十分明显,本文阐述了影响地区产业结构转换的一般因素,并通过主成分分析方法对影响西部地区产业结构转换的主要因素进行了分析,并对西部各地区产业结构转换能力、转换速度以及转换方向进行了分析评价。     

关于新时期高校学生工作的思考

从人才培养的高度 ,分析了新时期高校学生思想政治工作面临的新问题 ,结合工作实际对高校学生思想政治工作的理论问题进行了论述 ,以期为探索新时期高校学生工作的运行模式提供一些参考     

实现祖国统一是历史赋予中国共产党的使命

祖国统一是中国历史发展的主流,是中国人民的基本要求,是中华民族的根本利益所在。本文主要论述了中国共产党以人民的需求和民族的利益作为自己的最高行动准则,他们顺应历史发展趋势,了解人民的愿望和要求,代表国家和民族的利益,把完成祖国统一大业看成是历史赋予中国共产党的神圣使命。     

Unresolved Conflicts in the Regional Security System: The Case of the South Caucasus

The collapse of the USSR was accompanied by transformation of the South Caucasian latent ethnopolitical conflicts into local wars. Today the situation in the area of the conflicts is “neither war, nor peace”. Three unresolved conflicts of the South Caucasus can be considered as one of the most serious obstacles for establishing a regional security system.The article gives the general characteristics of these conflicts, the trends of their development, taking into account the time factor, and analyzes the behavioral models of the main players – de jure recognized and unrecognized de facto states of the South Caucasus. The basic objective of the main players should be to keep the situation on a level preventing the resumption of the armed conflicts. The attempts of forced resolution of the conflicts are fraught with destabilization of the situation not only in the area of any of these conflicts but in the whole region.     

Generalized quasi-likelihood

The quasi-score function, as defined by Wedderburn (1974) and McCullagh (1983) and so on, is a linear function of observations. The generalized quasi-score function introduced in this paper is a linear function of some unbiased basis functions, where the unbiased basis functions may be some linear functions of the observations or not, and can be easily constructed by the meaning of the parameters such as mean and median and so on. The generalized quasi-likelihood estimate obtained by such a generalized quasi-score function is consistent and has an asymptotically normal distribution. As a result, the optimum generalized quasi-score is obtained and a method to construct the optimum unbiased basis function is introduced. In order to construct the potential function, a conservative generalized estimating function is defined. By conservative, a potential function for the projected score has many properties of a log-likelihood function. Finally, some examples are given to illustrate the theoretical results. This paper is supported by NNSF project (10371059) of China and Youth Teacher Foundation of Nankai University.