Dynamic reasoning and time pressure: Transition from analytical operations to experiential responses

Based upon the Decision Field Theory (Busemeyer and Townsend 1993), we tested a model of dynamic reasoning to predict the effect of time pressure on analytical and experiential processing during decision-making. Forty-six participants were required to make investment decisions under four levels of time pressure. In each decision, participants were presented with experiential cues which were either congruent or incongruent with the analytical information. The congruent/incongruent conditions allowed us to examine how many decisions were based upon the experiential versus the analytical information, and to see if this was affected by the varying degrees of time pressure. As expected, the overall accuracy was reduced with greater time pressure and accuracy was higher when the experiential and analytical cues were congruent than when they were incongruent. Of great interest was the data showing that under high time pressure participants used more experiential cues than at other time pressures. We suggest that the dynamic reasoning paradigm has some future potential for predicting the effects of experiential biases in general, and specifically under time pressure.     

The Cat and the Cloud: ACT for LGBT Locus of Control,Responsibility, and Acceptance

Advocating acceptance, committed action, and value-guided behavior over experiential avoidance, Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT) may aid lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) clients affected by hetero/homonormative social pressure. By conceptualizing LGBT paradigms of internal/external control/responsibility (IC-IR; EC-IR; IC-ER; EC-IR), ACT may be adapted to a myriad of multicultural worldviews. This article presents locus of acceptance as the attributed worth of internal/external cues perceived necessary by the client to achieve self-acceptance. Recognizing visibility and isolation as recurrent LGBT issues, locus of acceptances balances identity as individual (internal acceptance) with identity as community (external acceptance).     

MEASURING THE INTERDEPENDENCE OF MULTINATIONAL FIRMS' FOREIGN INVESTMENTS

Earlier work found evidence for geographic linkages of aggregate foreign direct investment across countries and country‐pairs. From a theoretical point of view, such linkages at the macroeconomic level may root in between‐firm as well as within‐firm linkages and originate from information spillovers across or within firms in exploring unknown markets, and vertical linkages between production plants across different locations within the firm. We use data on the universe of German multinational enterprises (MNEs) to empirically explore how marginal investments at one foreign affiliate depend on investments at other affiliates within the same MNE. The empirical approach employs two channels or modes of cross‐affiliate interdependence: mere geography (capturing horizontal linkages through correlated learning and horizontal competition within the firm) and input–output relationships within or across industries (which capture vertical linkages). Adding to earlier findings at the aggregate level, we find evidence of a significant interdependence of investments within the firm. In the firm‐level data at hand, vertical linkages appear to be more important than horizontal ones. Investments at one location tend to stimulate investments at other locations of the same MNE, particularly if input linkages are strong. The opposite seems to be true for output linkages. Beyond vertical linkages, mere geographic proximity matters only to a minor extent. This suggests that evidence of linkages through geographic closeness at aggregate data levels accrue mainly to reasons of vertical linkages within networks of affiliates. (JEL C31, D22, F21, F23, F68, G31, H32)     

Sampling schemes for price index construction: a performance comparison across the classification of individual consumption by purpose food groups

Five sampling schemes (SS) for price index construction – one cut-off sampling technique and four probability-proportional-to-size (pps) methods – are evaluated by comparing their performance on a homescan market research data set across 21 months for each of the 13 classification of individual consumption by purpose (COICOP) food groups. Classifications are derived for each of the food groups and the population index value is used as a reference to derive performance error measures, such as root mean squared error, bias and standard deviation for each food type. Repeated samples are taken for each of the pps schemes and the resulting performance error measures analysed using regression of three of the pps schemes to assess the overall effect of SS and COICOP group whilst controlling for sample size, month and population index value. Cut-off sampling appears to perform less well than pps methods and multistage pps seems to have no advantage over its single-stage counterpart. The jackknife resampling technique is also explored as a means of estimating the standard error of the index and compared with the actual results from repeated sampling.     

Statement of Withdrawal: Statistical analysis of an endemic disease from a capture–recapture experiment

There are a number of statistical techniques for analysing epidemic outbreaks. However, many diseases are endemic within populations and the analysis of such diseases are complicated by changing population demography. Motivated by the spread of cowpox among rodent populations, a combined mathematical model for population and disease dynamics is introduced. An MCMC algorithm is then constructed to make statistical inference for the model based on data being obtained from a capture–recapture experiment. The statistical analysis is used to identify the key elements in the spread of the cowpox virus.     

Are sponsors blamed for edging off? Consumer reactions to sponsorship terminations

Firms regularly terminate sponsorships, even without publicly known misconduct by the sponsee such as athlete doping. Consumer reactions to these sponsorship terminations by firms have not been studied despite being a regular occurrence. Using a set of experimental studies, this paper analyzes consumer reactions to these sponsorship terminations (i.e., early and non-renewal) that were not caused by a sponsee’s misconduct, the underlying process that causes the reactions, and the role of several moderating factors (trust, power balance, and locus of control). Our findings reveal that sponsorship terminations have a negative effect on sponsors’ brand images—particularly early terminations that occur before the end of a contract—because consumers perceive these sponsorship terminations as unfair. The results also suggest that a termination is particularly harmful for the sponsor’s perceived fairness if the sponsor is powerful and if the termination decision is under the sponsor’s control. Further, the termination effect is particularly strong for firms that consumers trust.     

The distinct role of group-central and group-peripheral norms in taxpaying behaviour

In recent years, a social identity approach has been used to help understand why people do or do not pay tax [see Taylor, 2003; Wenzel, M., 2002. The impact of outcome orientation and justice concerns on tax compliance: the role of taxpayers’ identity. Journal of Applied Psychology 87, 629–645; Wenzel, M., 2004. An analysis of norm processes in tax compliance. Journal of Economic Psychology 25, 213–228; Wenzel, M., 2005. Misperception of social norms about tax compliance: from theory to intervention. Journal of Economic Psychology 26, 862–883; Wenzel, M., 2007. The multiplicity of taxpayer identities and their implications for tax ethics. Law & Policy 29, 31–50]. This research, which has focused almost exclusively on national identity, indicates that the more people identify with a group, the more likely they are to adhere to its tax norms and values. However, conformity to group norms may be more nuanced than this, and depend on (a) the meaning or content of the identity in question [e.g., Turner, J.C., 1999. Some current themes in research on social identity and self-categorization theories. In: Ellemers, N., Spears, R., Doojse, B. (Eds.), Social Identity: Context, Commitment, Content. Blackwell, Oxford, pp. 6–34] and (b) whether the norms and values are central or peripheral to the content of that identity. In line with this idea, two studies explored whether the concept and act of taxpaying are more central to what it means to be a member of one's nation than of one's occupational group. Both studies confirm this expectation. Importantly, the findings also suggest that although occupational groups have different norms and values in relation to pre-tax behaviours (e.g., how to deal with extra income), these too can be peripheral to what it means to a group member. If norms are peripheral to identity content, conformity to such norms may be independent of group identification.     

Bayesian analysis of a multiple-recapture model

In the Bayesian analysis of a multiple-recapture census, different diffuse prior distributions can lead to markedly different inferences about the population size N. Through consideration of the Fisher information matrix it is shown that the number of captures in each sample typically provides little information about N. This suggests that if there is no prior information about capture probabilities, then knowledge of just the sample sizes and not the number of recaptures should leave the distribution of Nunchanged. A prior model that has this property is identified and the posterior distribution is examined. In particular, asymptotic estimates of the posterior mean and variance are derived. Differences between Bayesian and classical point and interval estimators are illustrated through examples.     

Taxonomy of outsourcing decision models

This article proposes a taxonomy of outsourcing decision models. The proposed taxonomy may assist practitioners in their decision-making and researchers in the identification, evaluation and classification of decision models. Further, this article also provides an overview and evaluation of existing outsourcing decision models, and assesses them for their applicability to the outsourcing decision process. In particular, this article finds that the outsourcing decision models proposed in the literature have limitations in their applicability to the outsourcing decision process.     

Emotional balance and probability weighting

We find suggestive evidence that emotional balance has an impact on probability weighting incremental to demographic controls. Specifically, low negative affectivity (implying high emotional balance) tends to be a characteristic of those whose probability weighting functions exhibit lower curvature and more neutral elevation. In other words, emotional balance seems to push people in the direction of normative expected utility theory.