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231.
van den Hout A Böckenholt U van der Heijden PG 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics》2010,59(4):723-736
Randomized response is a misclassification design to estimate the prevalence of sensitive behaviour. Respondents who do not follow the instructions of the design are considered to be cheating. A mixture model is proposed to estimate the prevalence of sensitive behaviour and cheating in the case of a dual sampling scheme with direct questioning and randomized response. The mixing weight is the probability of cheating, where cheating is modelled separately for direct questioning and randomized response. For Bayesian inference, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling is applied to sample parameter values from the posterior. The model makes it possible to analyse dual sample scheme data in a unified way and to assess cheating for direct questions as well as for randomized response questions. The research is illustrated with randomized response data concerning violations of regulations for social benefit. 相似文献
232.
Diggle PJ Guan Y Hart AC Paize F Stanton M 《Journal of the American Statistical Association》2010,105(492):1394-1402
We propose a novel alternative to case-control sampling for the estimation of individual-level risk in spatial epidemiology. Our approach uses weighted estimating equations to estimate regression parameters in the intensity function of an inhomogeneous spatial point process, when information on risk-factors is available at the individual level for cases, but only at a spatially aggregated level for the population at risk. We develop data-driven methods to select the weights used in the estimating equations and show through simulation that the choice of weights can have a major impact on efficiency of estimation. We develop a formal test to detect non-Poisson behavior in the underlying point process and assess the performance of the test using simulations of Poisson and Poisson cluster point processes. We apply our methods to data on the spatial distribution of childhood meningococcal disease cases in Merseyside, U.K. between 1981 and 2007. 相似文献
233.
This paper examines both theoretically and empirically whether the common practice of using OLS multivariate regression models to estimate average treatment effects (ATEs) under experimental designs is justified by the Neyman model for causal inference. Using data from eight large U.S. social policy experiments, the paper finds that estimated standard errors and significance levels for ATE estimators are similar under the OLS and Neyman models when baseline covariates are included in the models, even though theory suggests that this may not have been the case. This occurs primarily because treatment effects do not appear to vary substantially across study subjects. 相似文献
234.
In this paper, we introduce non-centered and partially non-centered MCMC algorithms for stochastic epidemic models. Centered
algorithms previously considered in the literature perform adequately well for small data sets. However, due to the high dependence
inherent in the models between the missing data and the parameters, the performance of the centered algorithms gets appreciably
worse when larger data sets are considered. Therefore non-centered and partially non-centered algorithms are introduced and
are shown to out perform the existing centered algorithms. 相似文献
235.
Peter B. Gilbert 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics》2005,54(1):143-158
Summary. To help to design vaccines for acquired immune deficiency syndrome that protect broadly against many genetic variants of the human immunodeficiency virus, the mutation rates at 118 positions in HIV amino-acid sequences of subtype C versus those of subtype B were compared. The false discovery rate (FDR) multiple-comparisons procedure can be used to determine statistical significance. When the test statistics have discrete distributions, the FDR procedure can be made more powerful by a simple modification. The paper develops a modified FDR procedure for discrete data and applies it to the human immunodeficiency virus data. The new procedure detects 15 positions with significantly different mutation rates compared with 11 that are detected by the original FDR method. Simulations delineate conditions under which the modified FDR procedure confers large gains in power over the original technique. In general FDR adjustment methods can be improved for discrete data by incorporating the modification proposed. 相似文献
236.
Discrete time modelling of disease incidence time series by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Alexander Morton Bärbel F. Finkenstädt 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics》2005,54(3):575-594
Summary. A stochastic discrete time version of the susceptible–infected–recovered model for infectious diseases is developed. Disease is transmitted within and between communities when infected and susceptible individuals interact. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to make inference about these unobserved populations and the unknown parameters of interest. The algorithm is designed specifically for modelling time series of reported measles cases although it can be adapted for other infectious diseases with permanent immunity. The application to observed measles incidence series motivates extensions to incorporate age structure as well as spatial epidemic coupling between communities. 相似文献
237.
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239.
Peter Sohlberg 《International Journal of Social Welfare》2009,18(3):317-322
In his article, 'Against difference and diversity in social work: the case of human rights', Stephen Webb captures several important problems concerning the application of a postmodern human rights perspective in social work. Although accepting Webb's diagnosis, for example that the postmodern discourse neglects basic structural conditions essential for understanding social problems and thus leads to a policy of symbols and rhetoric, this article argues that Webb reifies the perspectives of diversity and universalism and misses the need for balancing these aspects in the practice of social work. Some general argumentative techniques in the postmodern discourse are identified, and it is argued that several of Webb's conclusions are reached via those argumentative techniques, particularly when it comes to his claim that the philosopher Alain Badiou could play a central role for social work. The possibility of implementing in social work general philosophical programmes such as Alain Badiou's is questioned. 相似文献
240.
Shelley Clark Michelle Poulin Hans‐Peter Kohler 《Journal of marriage and the family》2009,71(2):396-416
We explore how marital aspirations are related to the sexual behaviors of adolescents and young adults in Malawi, where HIV/AIDS prevalence among adults exceeds 10%. We also consider whether the specter of AIDS is shaping ideals about marriage. By combining survey data (N = 1,087) and in‐depth interviews (N = 133) with young Malawians from the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project, we show that looking for and finding a suitable spouse are linked to sexual behaviors and, thus, HIV risks. Moreover, concerns about contracting HIV are closely tied to the ideal characteristics of a future spouse. Our findings draw long‐overdue attention to the importance of marital aspirations in understanding adolescent sexual behaviors and risks in the era of AIDS. 相似文献