Public Management at the Ballot Box: Performance Information and Electoral Support for Incumbent English Local Governments

Publishing performance information about local public services,an increasing trend in many Organisation for Economic Co-operationand Development countries, matters politically because it hasan effect on incumbent local governments' electoral support.Voters are able to use performance information to punish orreward incumbents in the elections that follow their publication,which may fill a gap in the chain of accountability betweenvoters and governments. We model the introduction of publishedComprehensive Performance Assessments of local authorities inEngland, which make summary information about performance availableto voters, as a "shock" to the relationship between voters andincumbents. Controlling for an unpublicized measure of performancechange over time, change in the local tax level, change in localeconomic conditions, and whether the local incumbent is theparty of the incumbent government at the national level, wefind negativity bias. Incumbents in local authorities in the"poor" performance category experience a substantial reductionin aggregate vote share at the election following publication,but there is no similarly sized reward for those in the highestperformance category.     

Changes in HIV/AIDS knowledge and testing behavior in Africa: how much and for whom?

Demographic and Health Survey data from nine African countries make it clear that HIV/AIDS prevention knowledge has been increasing. Still, in many cases, fewer than half of adult respondents can identify specific prevention behaviors. Knowledge is lowest in rural areas and among women. HIV testing generally remains rare but is highly variable across countries, likely reflecting differences in the supply of testing services. In most cases, schooling and wealth impacts on prevention knowledge have either been stable or have increased; hence, in the majority of contexts, initial disparities in knowledge by education and wealth levels have persisted or widened.

Penalized Pseudolikelihood Inference in Spatial Interaction Models with Covariates

Given spatially located observed random variables ( x , z = {( x _i , z _i )} _i , we propose a new method for non-parametric estimation of the potential functions of a Markov random field p ( x | z ), based on a roughness penalty approach. The new estimator maximizes the penalized log-pseudolikelihood function and is a natural cubic spline. The calculations involved do not rely on Monte Carlo simulation. We suggest the use of B-splines to stabilize the numerical procedure. An application in Bayesian image reconstruction is described.     

Importance of interpolation when constructing double-bootstrap confidence intervals

We show that, in the context of double-bootstrap confidence intervals, linear interpolation at the second level of the double bootstrap can reduce the simulation error component of coverage error by an order of magnitude. Intervals that are indistinguishable in terms of coverage error with theoretical, infinite simulation, double-bootstrap confidence intervals may be obtained at substantially less computational expense than by using the standard Monte Carlo approximation method. The intervals retain the simplicity of uniform bootstrap sampling and require no special analysis or computational techniques. Interpolation at the first level of the double bootstrap is shown to have a relatively minor effect on the simulation error.     

Finding common ground: how superdiversity is unsettling social work education

For social work education in the Netherlands, the rapid transition towards superdiversity means that its capacity to adapt to this new reality and to adjust to diverse students’ backgrounds is fiercely challenged. The key aim of this article is to discuss how social work educators are dealing with the unsettling challenges of increasing diversity, based on the research outcomes of an explorative study amongst Turkish–Dutch and Moroccan–Dutch female professionals. Two different groups of educators were asked to comment on the outcomes of this study. One of the dilemmas for educators is to determine what can be considered supportive and inclusive and as reducing inequality in education. The authors used two key theoretical concepts, ‘superdiversity’ and ‘the capability approach’. These theoretical perspectives were used to deconstruct the rather massive concepts of diversity and social justice, by emphasising contextual approaches. Both perspectives stress the urgent need to involve students as ‘active agents of change’, by building a social work community to stimulate and facilitate an on-going dialogue. To successfully fulfil a pivotal role in the upward mobility or emancipation of ethnic minority students, social work education needs to be adjusted to accommodate diverse student groups.     

Tea Art as Everyday Practice: Gongfu Tea in Chaoshan,Guangdong, Today

In recent decades a style of preparing and drinking tea modelled largely on gongfu tea associated with the Chaoshan region of north-eastern Guangdong Province, China, has been taken up as a contemporary tea art in Taiwan, Hong Kong, the Chinese mainland and elsewhere. This paper draws on fieldwork conducted in Chaoshan to examine gongfu tea as contemporary practice in its home setting. Three aspects are considered: gongfu tea as an everyday practice, as a refined practice, and as commercialised leisure in tea-houses. I argue that, as an everyday practice in Chaoshan, gongfu tea primarily serves to nourish social connectedness with family, friends and associates. It is regarded as an integral part of day-to-day life rather than a tea art. However, some people separate it from the everyday world by cultivating discernment and knowledge with regard to selected aspects, such as high-quality teapots or appreciation of different teas.     

Extending Bayesian back-calculation to estimate age and time specific HIV incidence

Lifetime Data Analysis - CD4-based multi-state back-calculation methods are key for monitoring the HIV epidemic, providing estimates of HIV incidence and diagnosis rates by disentangling their...     

English proficiency in Australia, 1981 to 2016

Using Australian census data, the paper examines the incidence of poor English competency in Australia from 1981 onwards. The paper examines English competency in relation to various characteristics such as sex, age, language spoken, visa type, citizenship, duration of residence and location. It finds that there was a sharp rise in the numbers of people not speaking English well between the 2011 and 2016 Censuses and special attention is given to this rise in the paper. Recently, the Australian Government unsuccessfully legislated for the introduction of a requirement of English competency at the level of IELTS 6 (the commonly used university entrance level) as a condition for the award of Australian citizenship. The paper argues that this test would have led to a very large number of disenfranchised Australian permanent residents and this would be a highly undesirable result. Nevertheless, employment and social participation are strongly influenced by English competency and residents with poor English are disadvantaged. The policy suggestion is made that participation in a course of English language training for those without functional English skills could be made a precondition of the award of permanent residence—without the application of a passing grade.     

Resolving Rabin’s paradox

We present a theoretical model of Rabin’s famous calibration paradox that resolves confusions in the literature and that makes it possible to identify the causes of the paradox. Using suitable experimental stimuli, we show that the paradox truly violates expected utility and that it is caused by reference dependence. Rabin already showed that utility curvature alone cannot explain his paradox. We, more strongly, do not find any contribution of utility curvature to the explanation of the paradox. We find no contribution of probability weighting either. We conclude that Rabin’s paradox underscores the importance of reference dependence.