论停滞与失败--思想意识形态与历史:两个初步的问题(之一)

理学作为一种思想体系受到朝廷的推崇,并作为科举考试的组成部分。在20世纪,对理学的看法发生了分歧。有人认为理学是智识与科学进步的障碍,中国要想走向现代化就必须摆脱理学。关于中国在12世纪后进入长时期停滞的看法,历史学界一般都不赞成了,但读者的这种看法还比较强烈。对于中国历史的一些基本特征的认识需要重新检验,比如中国文化不是只有一个起源;中国并非与外界隔离并拒绝外界影响;中国的政治体制不是绝对独裁;中国文化并没有一个纯正的“正统”或“道统”(orthodox);中国人并非没有自主的完整实体的“自我”观念。学者在实际研究中往往把中国当作一个实体民族或一个连续不断的文明体,这种观念并不太准确,实际是误解了China的原意。     

Japanese marketing strategies in the United Kingdom

This article is based on a study which examined hypotheses about Japanese marketing using a matched sample of British companies and their major Japanese competitors. Japanese subsidiaries in Britain were shown to be much more marketing-oriented, more responsive to strategic opportunities, and more single-minded in their pursuit of market share. Organizationally, there were few differences between the two groups. The Japanese subsidiaries, however, were more inclined to use product or market-based divisions and continuous, informal planning and control procedures. The result is that managerial focus and responsibility are centred upon overall product-market rather than financial or production performance, with continuous feedback facilitating rapid adaptation and implementation of marketing plans and strategy.     

Changes in HIV/AIDS knowledge and testing behavior in Africa: how much and for whom?

Demographic and Health Survey data from nine African countries make it clear that HIV/AIDS prevention knowledge has been increasing. Still, in many cases, fewer than half of adult respondents can identify specific prevention behaviors. Knowledge is lowest in rural areas and among women. HIV testing generally remains rare but is highly variable across countries, likely reflecting differences in the supply of testing services. In most cases, schooling and wealth impacts on prevention knowledge have either been stable or have increased; hence, in the majority of contexts, initial disparities in knowledge by education and wealth levels have persisted or widened.

Penalized Pseudolikelihood Inference in Spatial Interaction Models with Covariates

Given spatially located observed random variables ( x , z = {( x _i , z _i )} _i , we propose a new method for non-parametric estimation of the potential functions of a Markov random field p ( x | z ), based on a roughness penalty approach. The new estimator maximizes the penalized log-pseudolikelihood function and is a natural cubic spline. The calculations involved do not rely on Monte Carlo simulation. We suggest the use of B-splines to stabilize the numerical procedure. An application in Bayesian image reconstruction is described.     

Medical Students' Attitudes and Opinions About Human Sexual Behaviour

In their professional capacities doctors are often confronted with clients who present with psycho-sexual problems. At the present time Australian medical students are provided with very little instruction in the areas of human sexual behaviour. This paper examines the attitudes and amount of information possessed by a cohort of second year medical students compared with groups of first and fifth year students; these attitudes and levels of information are then related to students' sex, religious affiliation, strength of religious conviction, where this is seen to be relevant. It is shown that some areas of ignorance exist. The paper concludes by outlining some aspects relevant to courses in human sexual behaviour.     

TWO-PIECE VON NEUMANN-MORGENSTERN UTILITY FUNCTIONS*

Thirty empirically assessed utility functions on changes in wealth or return on investment were examined for general features and susceptability to fits by linear, power, and exponential functions. Separate fits were made to below-target data and above-target data. The usual “target” was the no-change point. The majority of below-target functions were risk seeking; the majority of above-target functions were risk averse; and the most common composite shape was convex-concave, or risk seeking in losses and risk averse in gains. The least common composite was concave-concave. Below-target utility was generally steeper than above-target utility with a median below-to-above slope ratio of about 4.8. The power and exponential fits were substantially better than the linear fits. Power functions gave the best fits in the majority of convex below-target and concave above-target cases, and exponential functions gave the best fits in the majority of concave below-target and convex above-target cases. Several implications of these results for decision making under risk are mentioned.     

Dynamic reasoning and time pressure: Transition from analytical operations to experiential responses

Based upon the Decision Field Theory (Busemeyer and Townsend 1993), we tested a model of dynamic reasoning to predict the effect of time pressure on analytical and experiential processing during decision-making. Forty-six participants were required to make investment decisions under four levels of time pressure. In each decision, participants were presented with experiential cues which were either congruent or incongruent with the analytical information. The congruent/incongruent conditions allowed us to examine how many decisions were based upon the experiential versus the analytical information, and to see if this was affected by the varying degrees of time pressure. As expected, the overall accuracy was reduced with greater time pressure and accuracy was higher when the experiential and analytical cues were congruent than when they were incongruent. Of great interest was the data showing that under high time pressure participants used more experiential cues than at other time pressures. We suggest that the dynamic reasoning paradigm has some future potential for predicting the effects of experiential biases in general, and specifically under time pressure.     

Two-sided intergenerational moral hazard,long-term care insurance,and nursing home use

Two-sided intergenerational moral hazard occurs (i) if the parent’s decision to purchase long-term care (LTC) coverage undermines the child’s incentive to exert effort because the insurance protects the bequest from the cost of nursing home care, and (ii) when the parent purchases less LTC coverage, relying on child’s effort to keep him out of the nursing home. However, a “net” moral hazard effect obtains only if the two players’ responses to exogenous shocks fail to neutralize each other, entailing a negative relationship between child’s effort and parental LTC coverage. We focus on outcomes out of equilibrium, interpreting them as a break in the relationship resulting in no informal care provided and hence high probability nursing home admission. Changes in the parent’s initial wealth, LTC subsidy received, and child’s expected inheritance are shown to induce “net” moral hazard, in contradistinction to changes in child’s opportunity cost and share in the bequest.     

Can we count on each other? Reciprocity and conflicts in financial support in Sweden

Espvall M, Dellgran P. Can we count on each other? Reciprocity and conflicts in financial support in Sweden
Int J Soc Welfare 2010: 19: 84–94 © 2008 The Author(s), Journal compilation © 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the International Journal of Social Welfare. This article explores the experiences of reciprocity and conflicts in social relationships, and how these experiences are related to financial support (loans and gifts) in the wider social network. The balance of exchange within the social network as a whole is considered in relation to socio‐demographic features, financial conditions and the availability of social relationships. The data are drawn from a study of financial support exchange in Sweden based on a representative survey among Swedish citizens (n= 500). The results reveal that people living in economic hardship and who have more problematic life circumstances appear to be at risk of receiving more limited informal financial support and experience more feelings of conflict and nonreciprocal social relations.