Supply chain management: a supplier perspective

A new way of researching into supply chain management is introduced by adopting a supplier perspective. Details are given of mixed integer linear planning and simulation models. The planning model takes into consideration firm and forecast orders (customer's forecast purchasing orders) and the behaviour of the supplier's suppliers and suppliers' subcontractors. The simulation model takes into account the dynamic behaviour of the supply chain and includes the planning production behaviour of a supplying company based on the planning model. The supplier manager can use the simulation model to determine what kind of parameters most affect company performances and then propose new management rules. Quantitative results that prove the benefits of integrating forecast orders for an aeronautic supplier have been provided.     

Forecasting Accuracy of Alternative Techniques: A Comparison of U.S. Macroeconomic Forecasts

This article introduces and discusses a new measure of the relative economic affluence (REA) between income distributions with different means. The REA measure D is applied to the U.S. white and black household income distributions of 1967 and 1979. The measure D shows that the REA of the white households with respect to the black households decreased from 1967 to 1979. This conclusion contrasts with those obtained by applications of distance or quasi-distance functions. It is shown in this study that REA measures and distance functions address different and relevant issues. An REA measure deals with the relation “more affluent than” and defines a partial strict ordering over the set of pairs of income distributions—that is, the relation is asymmetric and transitive—whereas a distance function accounts for the dissimilarity between distributions without imposing an ordering relation and hence fulfills the symmetry property.     

Relationships Between Parenting Styles and the Academic Performance of Adolescents

Relationships between parenting styles, academic performance, and the mediating effects of motivation, goal orientation, and self-efficacy were examined. One hundred forty-eight high school students participated, including 58 males and 90 females. The Parenting Style/Parental Involvement Questionnaire was used to measure students' perceptions of their parents' parenting styles. The Intrinsic-Extrinsic Orientation Scale measured students' motivation. The Patterns of Adapted Learning Survey measured participants' goal orientation and academic self-efficacy. Adolescents who reported their parents as having a more authoritative parenting style were found to demonstrate more intrinsic motivation in their academic pursuits. Future implications for intervention and research are discussed.     

Ways out of the sewage sludge dilemma: Connecting administrative and participatory decision making

This paper examines the problem of decisions about the disposal of sewage sludge, in the face of stakeholder groups with varying viewpoints, based on a current case from the state of Lower Saxony in Germany. Like other developed countries, Germany faces the dilemma that sludge arisings are increasing (e.g., because of better water treatment) while disposal options are becoming more scarce. Lower Saxony relies heavily on landfill and agricultural application, but landfill of untreated sludge will be banned after 2005. The state Environment Ministry sees agricultural application as having various advantages, but it faces scepticism from various stakeholders. The ministry has therefore taken steps to encourage a long-term dialogue process with the main stakeholders, including farming organizations, food processors, other landowners such as the churches, and environmental and consumer organizations. The process began with a discussion forum in 1995 that led to the proposal of specific discussions with stakeholders. This paper focuses in particular on the dialogue with environmental and consumer groups. It analyzes the initial positions of the various stakeholders, describes the concrete steps taken so far, describes the ongoing efforts, and critically evaluates the procedures used as well as their implications in terms of the ideas of deliberation and analysis.     

Effects of a school readiness intervention for children in foster care on oppositional and aggressive behaviors in kindergarten

One hundred ninety-two children in foster care participated in a randomized efficacy trial of a school readiness intervention, the Kids In Transition to School (KITS) Program, designed to increase literacy, social, and self-regulation skills in children before kindergarten entry. One hundred two children were randomly assigned to the KITS intervention and 90 were randomly assigned to the foster care services as usual comparison group. At the end of the kindergarten year, teachers were asked to report on the children's oppositional and aggressive behaviors in the classroom. Controlling for gender, baseline levels of parent-reported oppositional and aggressive behaviors, and level of disruptiveness in the classroom, children who had received the intervention had significantly lower levels of oppositional and aggressive behaviors in the classroom. Findings suggest that an intervention designed to increase school readiness in children in foster care can have positive effects on kindergarten classroom behavior.     

Peasants and Swedes: the making of a Habsburg nightmare in Early Modern Austria

The analysis of confessional conflict in early modern Austria has often focused on nobles and townspeople. To get the full picture, however, it is essential to integrate the rural core into the analysis. In the Habsburg domains, the dynasty’s resolve to uphold or subsequently re-establish the old faith antagonized large sectors of the populace. This occurred in the early phase of the Reformation, when a broad diversity of reformist thought influenced peasant activism. Yet it also returned at a later stage of Austrian confessionalization, when a reinvigorated church and dynasty had begun to roll back the advances of the new creed. During its final period in the midst of the Thirty Years’ War, Austrian peasants even sympathized with the Habsburgs’ international adversaries, personified above all by Sweden’s King Gustavus II Adolphus. These confrontations between monarchy and commoners form the centrepiece of this essay. By demonstrating both the potential and the limits of peasant agency, the article throws new light on the nature of Austrian society during the confessional era.     

Ensuring the best interest of the child in intercountry adoption practice: case studies from the United Kingdom and the United States.

Each year, thousands of children who cross international borders are destined for homes with adoptive families. For most, this journey from their homeland brings them to loving new homes where they will thrive and prosper. For others, the journey is hazardous and the destination uncertain.     

Bootstrap confidence regions computed from autoregressions of arbitrary order

Given a linear time series, e.g. an autoregression of infinite order, we may construct a finite order approximation and use that as the basis for confidence regions. The sieve or autoregressive bootstrap, as this method is often called, is generally seen as a competitor with the better-understood block bootstrap approach. However, in the present paper we argue that, for linear time series, the sieve bootstrap has significantly better performance than blocking methods and offers a wider range of opportunities. In particular, since it does not corrupt second-order properties then it may be used in a double-bootstrap form, with the second bootstrap application being employed to calibrate a basic percentile method confidence interval. This approach confers second-order accuracy without the need to estimate variance. That offers substantial benefits, since variances of statistics based on time series can be difficult to estimate reliably, and—partly because of the relatively small amount of information contained in a dependent process—are notorious for causing problems when used to Studentize. Other advantages of the sieve bootstrap include considerably greater robustness against variations in the choice of the tuning parameter, here equal to the autoregressive order, and the fact that, in contradistinction to the case of the block bootstrap, the percentile t version of the sieve bootstrap may be based on the 'raw' estimator of standard error. In the process of establishing these properties we show that the sieve bootstrap is second order correct.