THE EFFECT AND COST OF FORECAST ERROR BIAS FOR MULTIPLE-STAGE PRODUCTION-INVENTORY SYSTEMS

This paper examines forecast error with an intention not to minimize forecast error so much as to bias the resultant error in order to achieve better managerial results. Much work has been accomplished by other researchers toward the goal of minimizing forecast error—sometimes by the use of sophisticated forecasting techniques. The results of this paper indicate that manipulating forecast error bias may be the better managerial strategy as opposed to going to great lengths to minimize forecast error. Subject Areas: Forecasting, Aggregate Planning, Capacity Planning, and Production/Operations Management.     

现代社会中的灵性

灵性(the spiritual)与世俗(the secular)在欧美现代性中同时被构建成为与制度性宗教(institutionalized religion)相关联的两个替代物.灵性的概念存在着矛盾,即:它既被视为具有普遍性的概念,又与民族认同相关联.再者,灵性的概念在全球传播的同时,被植入不同的历史进程中,它的发展轨迹在各个地方是不同的.本文认为:印度和中国的现代性是两国与[西方]帝国现代性互动后的产物.灵性在印度的相对成功与其在中国的相对失败不能简单地归结为中国共产主义的兴起.从更深层次上讲,有一个普遍观点,即中国的传统必须被西方的科学所取代,这在建国前早已被描绘成中国现代性的特征.而在印度,各类传统被当作反抗帝国主义斗争的资源,其所反抗的是从文化和政治上使印度从属于西方强权的物质现代化.     

Integrative Cycle Scheduling Approach for a Capacitated Flexible Assembly System*

This study revisits the traditional single stage, multi-item, capacitated lot-sizing problem (CLSP) with a new integrative focus on problem structuring. Unlike past research, we develop integrative cycle scheduling approaches which simultaneously address lot-sizing, capacity, and sequencing issues. Our purposes are to (1) explore the effect of sequencing on inventory levels, (2) examine the problem of infeasibility in the economic lot scheduling problem (ELSP), and (3) provide a simple methodology of generating low-cost cycle schedules in an environment with discrete shipping, dynamic demands, limited capacity, zero setup cost, and sequence-independent setup times. Our procedures are compared to benchmark cycle scheduling approaches in terms of both inventory cost and computation time under different demand scenarios, using the operating data from a flexible assembly system (FAS) at the Ford Motor Company's Sandusky, Ohio plant.     

The Impact of Learning and Labor Attrition on Worker Flexibility in Dual Resource Constrained Job Shops

This study investigates the impact of worker learning, worker flexibility, and labor attrition on the system performance of a dual resource constrained (DRC) job-shop. The effects of learning and labor attrition have not been previously addressed in DRC literature. Results from the study, consistent with previous literature, show that the greatest benefits are achieved when inter-departmental worker flexibility is incrementally introduced into the system. In addition, the learning environment, which depends on the initial processing time of jobs and the learning rates of workers, is shown to impact the acquisition of flexibility. The study also shows that the impact of labor attrition on system performance under certain shop conditions may be significant.     

Manufacturing Proactiveness and Performance*

Since Skinner's [40] landmark article depicting the manufacturing function as the “missing link” in corporate strategic processes, a portion of the blame for inferior performance in many firms has been attributed to the subordinate strategic position of manufacturing. It has been argued that part of the solution to misalignments between the capabilities possessed by manufacturing and the requirements dictated by customers is for manufacturing to take a more proactive stance. However, little research has been reported which examines manufacturing proactiveness empirically. In this paper, we address this gap by developing an operational definition of manufacturing proactiveness and testing empirically whether a link exists between proactiveness and performance based on data collected from a sample of manufacturers. Based on the manufacturing strategy literature, we identify two major dimensions of manufacturing proactiveness: (1) the degree of manufacturing's involvement in the strategic processes of the business unit; and (2) the degree of commitment to a long-term program of investments in manufacturing structure and infrastructure aimed at building capabilities in anticipation of their need. We develop reliable scales for measuring each of the dimensions of proactiveness and use the data to provide evidence of a clear link between manufacturing proactiveness and business performance. We show that investments in structural programs coupled with either high levels of manufacturing involvement in strategic processes or planned investments in infrastructural programs correlate with higher than average performance.     

Is governing board behavior cyclical?

An empirically derived model of cyclical board behavior holds that following a nonrecurring founding period, a board typically progresses through a sequence of three distinct operating phases and then experiences a crisis that initiates the whole sequence over again. During each cycle, board members become progressively less interested in the agency's mission and programs and more interested in the board's bureaucratic procedures and the agency's reputation for success in the community. Although the sequence of phases is predictable, the timing of them is not. As a conceptual framework, the model integrates the results of a variety of valuable, but otherwise unrelated, studies of governing board behavior. The cyclical model can also be used as a diagnostic tool that can enable a board member, executive director, consultant, foundation officer, or public funder to analyze quickly a particular board's perspective and potential.     

Master Production Scheduling Under Rolling Planning Horizons with Fixed Order Intervals

Fixed interval scheduling is studied in the context of a rolling horizon framework that is developed by building on previous work in the master scheduling area. The rolling horizon framework includes a stationary scheduling model which uses the “time fencing’concept by partitioning the planning horizon into three sections. The lengths of these sections and the frequency at which the stationary problem is updated and resolved are discussed as parameters of the rolling horizon model. Two different interpretations of the freeze interval parameter are examined, enabling confirmation and clarification of results presented in an earlier study. Details are given for three methods of calculating safety stocks as a function of rolling horizon parameters, including a method which results in optimal safety stock levels. A comparison of the safety stock methods shows that the constant safety stock method can result in inventories that are significantly above optimal under certain conditions, whereas the constant service level method consistently yields nearly optimal results.     

Marketing Communication Intensity Across Industries

Marketing communication intensity (i.e., the ratio of advertising and promotional expenditures to sales) has been an important topic for both business managers and academics. Here, we investigate cross-sectional and time-series variation of communication intensity due to: type of offering (product versus service) and type of market (consumer versus industrial). Overall, we find that both of these factors affect variation of communication intensity across industries and over time. However, the effect of market type is much more dramatic than the effect of offering type. Such knowledge about patterns in communication intensity levels helps managers make decisions about how much to spend on advertising and promotion.     

Auditors' Assessment of Management's Disposition: An Attributional Analysis*

Auditors' assessment of management's dispositions presumably affects their subsequent judgments. However, little is known about the process by which auditors infer characteristics of management. This paper proposes the theory of correspondent inferences [25] as a framework for examining auditors' assessment of management's dispositions; the model is tested in a laboratory experiment using experienced audit managers. The results are consistent with the proposed theoretical framework. Implications for future research are discussed.