EXPLORING THE LIMITS OF THE TECHNOLOGY S-CURVE. PART I: COMPONENT TECHNOLOGIES

The technology S-curve is a useful framework describing the substitution of new for old technologies at the industry level. In this paper I use information from the technological history of the disk drive industry to examine the usefulness of the S-curve framework for managers at the firm level in planning for new technology development. Because improvements in over-all disk drive product performance result from the interaction of improved component technologies and new architectural technologies, each of these must be monitored and managed. This paper focuses on component technology S-curves, and a subsequent paper, also published in this issue of the journal, examines architectural technology Scurves. Improvement in individual components followed S-curve patterns, but I show that the flattening of S-curves is a firm-specific, rather than uniform industry phenomenon. Lack of progress in conventional technologies may be the result, rather than the stimulus, of a forecast that the conventional technology is maturing, and some firms demonstrated the ability to wring far greater levels of performance from existing component technologies than other firms. Attacking entrant firms evidenced a distinct disadvantage versus incumbent firms in developing and using new component technologies. Firms pursuing aggressive Scurve switching strategies in component technology development gained no strategic advantage over firms whose strategies focused on extending the life of established component technologies.     

A Comment on Second-Order Polynomial Regression Models

In a recent article, Chatterjee and Greenwood [1] addressed the problem of multicollinearity in polynomial regression models. They noted that there is a high correlation between X and X²; therefore, a second-order polynomial model suffers the consequences of collinearity. Chatterjee and Greenwood [1] suggested a method they believe will overcome the problem. The contention of the present comment is that the suggested method accomplishes nothing and, indeed, has the potential to lead the unwary researcher to the wrong inference and misinterpretation of his results.     

Some Comments on the Validity of EOQ Formula under Inflationary Conditions

In an earlier issue of Decision Sciences, Jesse, Mitra, and Cox [1] examined the impact of inflationary conditions on the economic order quantity (EOQ) formula. Specifically, the authors analyzed the effect of inflation on order quantity decisions by means of a model that takes into account both inflationary trends and time discounting (over an infinite time horizon). In their analysis, the authors utilized two models: Current-dollars model and Constant-dollars model. These models were derived, of course, by setting up a total cost equation in the usual manner then finding the optimum order quantity that minimizes the total cost. Jesse, Mitra, and Cox [1] found that EOQ is approximately the same under both conditions; with or without inflation. However, we disagree with the conclusion drawn by [2] and show that EOQ will be different under inflationary conditions, provided that the inflationary conditions are properly accounted for in the formulation of the total cost model.     

The Effects of Personality Type on Choices Made in Strategic Decision Situations*

Jung's personality-theory typology is used as a framework for exploring the effects of cognitive style on the type and radicalness of choices made in strategic decision situations. Extending the work of Haley and Stumpf [23], it is proposed that individuals with different personality-type preferences exhibit cognitive styles that are associated with specific biases in the pattern of choices they make. Through participation in an interactive behavioral simulation, 407 participants confronted over one hundred ill-structured decision situations and proposed whatever actions they perceived appropriate. The results support the hypothesized relationships that individuals with different personality-type preferences (i.e., sensing-thinking, intuition-thinking, sensing-feeling, and intuition-feeling) take patterns of actions that reflect specific biases (i.e., selective perception, positivity, social desirability, and reasoning-by-analogy, respectively). The implications of these findings for evaluating the likely effectiveness of strategic decisions and making senior-level staffing decisions are discussed.     

Outlaws or in-laws? Queer theory, LGBT studies, and religious studies

Many queer theorists, like many queer activists and perhaps many LGBT people in general, regard religion as so inimical to their purposes and lives that it is not even worthy of critique; references to religion in queer theory, queer studies, and even LGBT studies are usually sparse, brief, and generally derogatory. Likewise, within most of the field of religious studies, queerness is rarely an issue of concern or even consciousness except in the context of organizational tensions over the proper roles of "homosexuals." While there is a growing body of work that brings these two fields together, the study of religion seems to be adapting only haltingly and partially to contemporary developments inLGBTstudies and queer theory. This essay assesses the current state of the "proto-fields" of LGBT studies and queer studies in religion, offers suggestions for new directions in the future, and considers the potential benefits of the interaction of these fields.     

Women's experience of revealing perinatal bladder function--implications for midwifery care

Comments of women engaged in a longitudinal study of urinary leaking from first trimester to 12 months following birth provide the data for this paper. Useful insights into the factors contributing to the maintenance of silence and ways to break the barriers to discussion of urinary incontinence before, during and following pregnancy were revealed. Given the prevalence of 30% of Australian women experiencing urinary leaking following pregnancy, it is imperative that midwives engage in discussion and support prevention of this unwelcome outcome of childbirth.     

Master Production Rescheduling Policy in Capacity-Constrained Just-In-Time Make-To-Stock Environments

This paper describes a simulation experiment to evaluate the relative effectiveness of rescheduling policies in capacity-constrained, just-in-time (JIT) make-to-stock production environments. Three performance measures were analyzed: average finished goods inventory, total units of sales lost, and a measure of schedule instability. Among the three loading methods we studied (level loading, front loading, and back loading), none was superior across all three performance measures. Level loading was the most robust, while back loading had an interaction effect with forecasting model and capacity level. Time fence scenario was found not to be as significant a factor in system performance as reported by previous research. Once an acceptable time fence scenario is selected, attempts to optimize this factor do not appear to offer significant improvement. It was found that higher demand variation, larger forecast errors, and tight capacity lead to the degradation of system performance. Judicious use of slack capacity helps a system to incorporate the periodic schedule changes typical of JIT systems.