Planning and social change

During his ten years experience of corporate planning in industry the author became increasingly concerned about the relationship between planning and social change. This article, based on a talk given to the Social and Ecological Study Group of the Society for Long Range Planning, explores an approach to environmental appraisal which might make businesses and government agencies more responsive to the needs of a changing society and their products and services correspondingly more socially desirable. The author is currently leading a multidisciplinary team on a study of urban deprivation in Birmingham.     

Improving the Efficiency of the Nelson–Aalen Estimator: the Naive Local Constant Estimator

Abstract.  The Nelson–Aalen estimator is well known to be an asymptotically efficient estimator of the cumulative hazard function, see Andersen et al. ( Statistical models based on counting processes , Springer-Verlag, New York, 1993) among many others. In this paper, we show that the efficiency of the Nelson–Aalen estimator can be considerably improved by using more information in the estimation process than the traditional Nelson–Aalen estimator uses. While our approach results in a biased estimator, the variance improvement is substantial. By optimizing the balance between the bias loss and the variance improvement, we obtain results on the efficiency gain. Several examples for known failure time distributions are used to illustrate these ideas.     

THE RATE OF CONVERGENCE IN THE NORMAL APPROXIMATION FOR THE WILCOXON R-ESTIMATOR

We exploit the fact that the Wilcoxon score R-estimator of the slope in a linear regression model minimises Gini's mean difference of the residuals to obtain a Berry-Esseen rate of convergence result for the Wilcoxon R-estimator.     

Perspectives on Regional and Enterprise Marginality: Dairying in Michigan's North Country1

Abstract Dairy farmers in Michigan's Upper Peninsula, an economically marginal rural region, are encumbered by contextual constraints that are not similarly faced by their downstate counterparts. However, this does not mean that they are any less ambitious or less efficient in dealing with the resources available to them. Indeed, dairying and similar small-scale economic enterprises in this and other marginal contexts may be quite competitive and sustainable if appropriate sociopolitical supports are instituted and, in the case of dairying, if marketing orders and regulatory policies are formulated and implemented in light of their impact upon the economic growth and viability of the wider region. To explore this issue, we consider the situations, basic characteristics, and restructuring trends over time of dairy farms in three upstate localities as compared with that of a downstate dairy farming community.     

The Development of Urban Neighbourhoods and the Benefit of Indication Systems

The last few years much use is being made ofso-called indication systems to map the development ofneighbourhoods. It is hoped that these systems quicklybring possible livability problems to light, so thatpeople can intervene in accordance with policy.In this article the advantages and pitfalls of such anindication system are gone into. Such a system has totake into account the fact that the development ofneighbourhoods does not have a fixed pattern.Furthermore the much-used objective indicators oftendo not mesh with the subjective perception ofresidents and the appraisal processes ofprofessionals. Also much more consideration will haveto be given to social characteristics, which in ourday have become increasingly more determining for thelivability of neighbourhoods. It is also importantthat the action of managers be part of acharacterization of neighbourhoods. It is being arguedthat an indication system cannot be confined toregistering indicators and other data, for it has todirectly contribute to policy interventions. That iswhy a good indication system takes both facts and creation of an image into account, as well aslivability characteristics and theconsiderations of residents and managers. In a fewbrief concluding observations, the different functionsan indication system can have as a policy instrumentare gone into.     

Efficiency in religious organizations

Churches must realize that the management of their human resources is critical. The U.S. Catholic Church in recent years has been this problem take on even more significance with the apparent shortage of priests. This article considers this problem in light of a relatively new methodology, data envelopment analysis, which compares organizations to comparable best-practice units. The authors conclude that the Church would benefit from a better distribution of priests, both within and across dioceses. They also conclude that the use of deacons and priestless parishes can be effective in some circumstances.     

Propensity to adopt innovative housing: Development of knowledge indexes

The process by which energy efficient housing alternatives is diffused through society in relation to the information flow is relatively unknown. The major purpose of this study was to validate a continuum of the propensity to adopt alternative housing (passive and active solar, earth sheltered and retrofitted) based on knowledge level. Findings indicate knowledge indices are valid predictors of consumer acceptance of energy efficient housing alternatives. A greater level of knowledge was correlated with respondents willing to adopt an alternative housing type.     

Improving the quality of child welfare services: needs assessment for staff training

Competency-based needs assessment surveys can be useful in assessing worker training needs in child welfare. Worker and supervisor surveys, consisting largely of task-based ability statements, constitute the core of this approach. Additional information can also be obtained from supervisors and allied professionals. Data from a study of 276 frontline child welfare workers in Alaska and Oregon are used to illustrate the utility of this approach.