Extending Bayesian back-calculation to estimate age and time specific HIV incidence

Lifetime Data Analysis - CD4-based multi-state back-calculation methods are key for monitoring the HIV epidemic, providing estimates of HIV incidence and diagnosis rates by disentangling their...     

English proficiency in Australia, 1981 to 2016

Using Australian census data, the paper examines the incidence of poor English competency in Australia from 1981 onwards. The paper examines English competency in relation to various characteristics such as sex, age, language spoken, visa type, citizenship, duration of residence and location. It finds that there was a sharp rise in the numbers of people not speaking English well between the 2011 and 2016 Censuses and special attention is given to this rise in the paper. Recently, the Australian Government unsuccessfully legislated for the introduction of a requirement of English competency at the level of IELTS 6 (the commonly used university entrance level) as a condition for the award of Australian citizenship. The paper argues that this test would have led to a very large number of disenfranchised Australian permanent residents and this would be a highly undesirable result. Nevertheless, employment and social participation are strongly influenced by English competency and residents with poor English are disadvantaged. The policy suggestion is made that participation in a course of English language training for those without functional English skills could be made a precondition of the award of permanent residence—without the application of a passing grade.     

Resolving Rabin’s paradox

We present a theoretical model of Rabin’s famous calibration paradox that resolves confusions in the literature and that makes it possible to identify the causes of the paradox. Using suitable experimental stimuli, we show that the paradox truly violates expected utility and that it is caused by reference dependence. Rabin already showed that utility curvature alone cannot explain his paradox. We, more strongly, do not find any contribution of utility curvature to the explanation of the paradox. We find no contribution of probability weighting either. We conclude that Rabin’s paradox underscores the importance of reference dependence.

     

Exploring experiences of heterosexism and coping strategies among lesbian,gay, bisexual,and transgender persons in Swaziland

Social, cultural, and institutional processes which see heterosexuality as natural and universal discriminate against individuals who differ from this norm. This article draws on interviews with lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) people in Swaziland to provide an enhanced understanding of the ways in which heterosexism operates in practice and impacts the sexual rights of LGBT communities in Swaziland, where same-sex practices are criminalised. These narratives show the importance of solidarity and activism in coping strategies to challenge social exclusion, improve lives, and advocate for social changes. These strategies include reframing, navigating interpersonal relationships, and advocacy. We consider key lessons that emerge from our research for policy, programmes, and activism in Swaziland, as well as other low- and middle-income contexts.     

Measuring the health patterns of the ‘mixed/multiple’ ethnic group in Britain: data quality problems,reporting issues,and implications for policy

The ‘mixed’ group, officially recognised in the 2001 Census, is one of the most rapidly growing ethnic groups in Britain. Although ‘mixed’ categorisation was added to ethnic coding in NHS datasets, our knowledge of health patterns for this population is meagre. Data quality problems remain a key obstacle, including poor reproducibility of the data and constraints on reporting due to sparse data bias. The consequent minimal and indicative evidence base has focused mainly on risky health behaviours, mental health and generic measures of self-rated health, as it has in the U.S.A. and Canada. There is negligible information on the main underlying causes of death, such as neoplasms, heart disease and stroke. Consideration should be given to pooling data across multiple years of health and general purpose surveys to enable reporting for the four ‘mixed’ categories and adjustment for mediating factors and relevant confounders, such as measures of socio-economic status.     

Three notes on a political economy of youth

The paper seeks to makes a contribution to a recent debate in the Journal about what a political economy of youth might look like. The paper will take up aspects of Sukarieh and Tannock’s [2016. ‘On the political economy of youth: a comment.’ Journal of Youth Studies 19 (9): 1281–1289] response to the initial contributions by Côté [2014. ‘Towards a New Political Economy of Youth.’ Journal of Youth Studies 17 (4): 527–543, 2016. ‘A New Political Economy of Youth Reprised: Rejoinder to France and Threadgold.’ Journal of Youth Studies.] And France and Threadgold [2015. ‘Youth and Political Economy: Towards a Bourdieusian Approach.’ Journal of Youth Studies], and will take the form of three ‘notes’: Capitalism: From the first industrial revolution to the third industrial revolution; Youth as an artefact of governmentalised expertise; The agency/structure problem in youth studies: Foucault’s dispositif and post-human exceptionalism.

These notes will suggest that twenty-first century capitalism is globalising, is largely neo-Liberal, and is being reconfigured in profound ways by the Anthropocene, bio-genetics, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and the Internet of Things (IoT). A political economy of twenty-first century capitalism, let alone a political economy of young people, must be able to account for a capitalism that in many ways looks like the capitalism of the First and Second Industrial Revolutions, but which is at the same time profoundly different as it enters what has often been described as the Third Industrial Revolution. It is these profound emergences that pose the greatest challenges for engaging with a political economy of youth.     

‘Warren Buffet is my cousin’: shaping public understanding of big data biotechnology,direct-to-consumer genomics,and 23andMe on Twitter

Scholars, educators, regulators, pundits, and other observers are advocating for regulation and oversight of direct-to-consumer (DTC) genomic testing. As a result, the technology has been subject of highly visible public and regulatory controversy. In this article, we explore the nature and the shape of the sentiment of public discourse about the DTC company, 23andMe. We conduct a quantitative content analysis and qualitative framing analysis on Tweets. We find that the discourse surrounding DTC genomics and 23andMe is largely positive. We also identify a number of frames users deploy to debate, discuss, and share their experiences with DTC genomics and 23andMe. We argue that these frames create meaning around this emerging technology for its users.     

Are children better witnesses than adolescents? Developmental trends in different false memory paradigms

Abstract

The current study compared older children’s (11/12-year-olds) and adolescents’ (14/15-year-olds) vulnerability to false memory creation using two different methods (i.e., the Deese/Roediger-McDermott [DRM] and memory conformity paradigms) involving neutral and negative stimuli. In line with previous research, a developmental reversal effect was found for the DRM paradigm, which means that when employing this method children displayed lower false memory levels than adolescents. However, when using the memory conformity paradigm, the opposite pattern was found, with adolescents forming fewer false memories than children. This indicates that in a co-witness context, adolescents are less prone to memory errors than children. The emotional valence of the stimuli used in both paradigms did not notably affect the production of false memories. There was no statistically significant correlation between false memories as measured by the DRM and the memory conformity paradigms. Altogether, the current study indicates that there is no single type of false memory as different experimental paradigms evoke different types of erroneous recollections. Additionally, our study corroborates past findings in the literature concerning the issue of developmental reversal, strengthening the idea that under certain circumstances children might indeed be better witnesses than adolescents.     

Tracking of sport and exercise types from midlife to old age: a 20-year cohort study of British men

Background

Previous physical activity (PA) tracking studies have examined the stability of overall PA and/or PA types, but few have investigated how specific types of sport/exercise track over the life course. The aim of this study was to determine how specific sports/exercises in midlife track and predict future sport/exercise and PA in men transitioning to old age.

Methods

Seven thousand seven hundred thirty-five men (aged 40–59?years) recruited in 1978–80 were followed up after 12, 16 and 20?years. At each wave men self-reported participation in sport/exercise. Frequent sport/exercise participants (>?1/month) reported the types of sport/exercise they engaged in. Men also reported total PA, health status, lifestyle behaviours and socio-demographic characteristics. Stability of each sport/exercise was assessed using kappa statistics and intraclass correlation coefficients. Logistic regression estimated the odds of participating in sport/exercise and being active at 20-year follow up according to specific types of sport/exercise in midlife.

Results

Three thousand three hundred eighty-four men with complete data at all waves were included in analyses. Tracking of specific sports/exercises ranged from fair to substantial, with golf being the most common and most stable. Bowls was the most frequently adopted. Odds of participating in sport/exercise and being active in old age varied according to sport/exercise types in midlife. Golf and bowls in midlife were the strongest predictors of sport/exercise participation in old age. Golf, cricket and running/jogging in midlife were among the strongest predictors of being active in old age. Compared to participating in just one sport/exercise in midlife, sampling multiple sports/exercises was more strongly associated with sport/exercise participation and being active in old age.

Conclusion

The stability of sport/exercise participation from midlife to old age varies by type. Specific sports/exercises in midlife may be more likely to predict future PA than others. However, participating in a range of sports/exercises may be optimal for preserving PA into old age.