Refined Inference on Long Memory in Realized Volatility

There is an emerging consensus in empirical finance that realized volatility series typically display long range dependence with a memory parameter (d) around 0.4 (Andersen et al., 2001; Martens et al., 2004). The present article provides some illustrative analysis of how long memory may arise from the accumulative process underlying realized volatility. The article also uses results in Lieberman and Phillips (2004, 2005) to refine statistical inference about d by higher order theory. Standard asymptotic theory has an O(n^-1/2) error rate for error rejection probabilities, and the theory used here refines the approximation to an error rate of o(n^-1/2). The new formula is independent of unknown parameters, is simple to calculate and user-friendly. The method is applied to test whether the reported long memory parameter estimates of Andersen et al. (2001) and Martens et al. (2004) differ significantly from the lower boundary (d = 0.5) of nonstationary long memory, and generally confirms earlier findings.     

Hiding and seeking: Children's lived experiences during COVID-19

A qualitative study explored the perspectives and lived experiences of school-age children during COVID-19 using a child rights lens. Twenty children between the ages of 7 and 12 participated in open-ended, virtual interviews. Our hermeneutic analysis found children's right to play and education were severely compromised leaving children to navigate between two worlds: the adult world of public health restrictions and that of their childhood. Despite challenges and lost childhood opportunities, children emerged as competent social agents and responsible citizens. Planning for future pandemics should include policies and practices that balance public health needs with the protection of children's rights.     

Popularity Contagion Among Adolescents

This study aimed to support the theory of popularity contagion, which posits that popularity spreads among friends spontaneously and regardless of behavioral changes. Peer nominations of status and behavior were collected annually between 6th and 12th grades from a total of 1062 adolescents. Longitudinal hypotheses were mostly supported using path analyses, showing (1) that individual popularity could be predicted by friends’ popularity levels over time, even when controlling for stability of individual popularity; (2) that this prediction was not accounted for by behavioral contagion of aggressive or prosocial behaviors; and (3) that individual social preference generally could not be predicted by friends’ preference levels over time. Implications, limitations, and directions for future research are discussed.     

Falsificationism is not just ‘potential’ falsifiability,but requires ‘actual’ falsification: Social psychology,critical rationalism,and progress in science

Based on an analysis of ten popular introductions to social psychology, we will show that Karl Popper's philosophy of ‘critical rationalism’ so far has had little to no traceable influence on the epistemology and practice of social psychology. If Popper is quoted or mentioned in the textbooks at all, the guiding principle of ‘falsificationism’ is reduced to a mere ‘falsifiability’ and some central elements of critical rationalism are left out – those that are incompatible with positivism and inductivism. Echoing earlier attempts to introduce Popper to social psychology by Paul Meehl and Tom Pettigrew, we will argue that a discussing Popper's ideas in more depth could help social psychology to move forward in view of the ‘crisis of confidence’ (Pashler and Wagenmakers, 2012) that has emerged recently in view of the ‘Stapel affair’ and the reports of failures to replicate social psychological experiments in high‐powered replication attempts.     

Peasants and Swedes: the making of a Habsburg nightmare in Early Modern Austria

The analysis of confessional conflict in early modern Austria has often focused on nobles and townspeople. To get the full picture, however, it is essential to integrate the rural core into the analysis. In the Habsburg domains, the dynasty’s resolve to uphold or subsequently re-establish the old faith antagonized large sectors of the populace. This occurred in the early phase of the Reformation, when a broad diversity of reformist thought influenced peasant activism. Yet it also returned at a later stage of Austrian confessionalization, when a reinvigorated church and dynasty had begun to roll back the advances of the new creed. During its final period in the midst of the Thirty Years’ War, Austrian peasants even sympathized with the Habsburgs’ international adversaries, personified above all by Sweden’s King Gustavus II Adolphus. These confrontations between monarchy and commoners form the centrepiece of this essay. By demonstrating both the potential and the limits of peasant agency, the article throws new light on the nature of Austrian society during the confessional era.     

Squaring the welfare circle and government ideology: Greece and Spain in the 1990s

This article examines the squaring the welfare circle thesis and its usefulness to our understanding of welfare developments in Greece and Spain in the 1990s. The welfare state in both Greece and Spain was expanded considerably in the early 1980s by the newly elected socialist governments, only to hit the buffers of diminishing resources and rising demands in the late 1980s as well as the hostile neo-liberal welfare ideology. The process of welfare expansion was halted in the 1990s, labour market deregulation was encouraged and containment of welfare expenditure became the dominant aim of government policies. This article concentrates on the actual policies of governments in the 1990s rather than on the rhetoric of political parties. It concludes that governments of both the Left and the Right in both countries attempted to square the welfare circle mainly through reductions in the supply of welfare. This general conclusion is country-specific and may not apply to other countries involved in welfare restructuring. While recognizing the significance of institutional factors to welfare reform, the article concentrates on the outcomes of reforms rather than on the political process leading to them.     

From a Bird's Eye View? A Comparative Analysis of Governance and Network Integration Among Human Service Organizations

ABSTRACT

It is widely recognized by social workers and human service administrators that interorganizational networks are an important aspect of the everyday reality of human service organizations. A well-integrated network is defined as a network in which all organizations are connected and the resource exchange among all network actors is guaranteed. To analyze the integration of service networks, this study conducts a social network analysis of four networks among service organizations governed by a shared-participant type of governance. The results indicate that in networks in which the governance is more developed and mature, the structure shows a high level of integration. The analysis and results show that governance leads to an integration of the efforts of diverse service organizations, ultimately increasing the responsiveness of the entire network toward the complex problems of the target group. Future recommendations include discussing further qualitative and quantitative research efforts and the role of shared-participant governance.     

Policy Diffusion and Policy Transfer in Comparative Welfare State Research

For many years, comparative welfare state research has followed a ‘methodological nationalism’ in the sense that countries were treated as independent units. Yet the recent ‘spatial turn’ in comparative politics has also influenced welfare state research. For some years now, the field has been witnessing a growing interest in questions about interdependencies and policy diffusion between countries. In this article, we provide a structured overview of the state of the art in the policy diffusion and transfer literature that deals specifically with social policy. We present and critically evaluate existing theoretical concepts and quantitative and qualitative methodological approaches that enable the analysis of interdependencies between countries. Moreover, we summarize the empirical findings of quantitative and qualitative studies on the diffusion and transfer of social policy, from some pioneering studies to the latest findings. Against this background we point out what we believe to be promising avenues for future research. We focus on five areas: theoretical work on the mechanisms underlying diffusion and transfer; methodological approaches; the impact of domestic institutions and policy characteristics on social policy diffusion and transfer; programme‐specific dynamics; and the systematic combination of horizontal and vertical interdependencies.