The contribution of E.C. consumer surveys in forecasting consumer expenditures: An econometric analysis for four major countries

In this article we investigate the forecasting performance of alternative models of private consumption using the EEC consumer surveys. Two basic conclusions emerge from the study:(1) in absolute as well as in comparison with a standard economic model, consumption functions incorporating opinion variables perform surprisingly well given the important measurement problems (missing data, qualitative character of the responses, strong collinearity among responses), and(2) consumers' opinions are helpful guides only in very short-term forecasting (between 0 and 3 quarters).The article extends previous investigations both on the basic characteristics of opinion variables and on their relation with actual economic variables.     

The Admission of the Whole Family in a Child Psychiatry Setting: A Follow-up Study*

This paper describes a follow-up study of 40 consecutive whole family admissions. One hundred and forty three families have been admitted over the past three years. The reasons for admission are described as well as some explanation of the factors contributing to the 80% successful outcome based on independent therapist and parent reports.     

A Quantitative Estimate of Leukemia Mortality Associated with Occupational Exposure to Benzene3

In 1980, the U.S. Supreme Court vacated a revised occupational standard for benzene, stating that the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) had failed to demonstrate that significant health risks existed under the current standard. This decision has been interpreted by OSHA as requiring the consideration of quantitative risk assessments, whenever possible, in the development of regulations for occupational carcinogens. In light of this decision, the available epidemiologic evidence was used to generate a quantitative risk assessment for benzene. Uncertainties regarding the levels and lengths of benzene exposure for the studied cohorts were incorporated into the analysis. Based on the one-hit model, the assessment indicates that a working lifetime exposure to benzene at the current permissible exposure level (10 ppm) poses a substantial excess risk of death from leukemia. This report discusses the calculation of the risk estimates, the basis for relying on certain assumptions, and the inherent limitations of using epidemiologic studies to quantify cancer risks.     

Querulous Citizens: Welfare Knowledge and the Limits to Welfare Reform

Governments face pressures to improve services and (at the same time) to contain taxes and to ensure that their decisions are accountable to increasingly well‐informed and challenging citizens. The dilemma of “squaring the welfare circle” confronts New Labour in a particularly acute form, since the party has set ambitious targets for improvements in the NHS, education and elsewhere, and is also committed to economic prudence and transparency. This article uses new data from a major national survey to investigate knowledge and beliefs in the main policy areas. It shows that most people are generally strikingly well‐informed in some areas and ill‐informed in others. A government which wishes to pursue a progressive direction in redistribution, increasing taxation of the better‐off, or expanding provision for those on low incomes, faces real difficulties because many people hold inaccurate beliefs about policy impact and the policy context in these areas. However, NHS costs are more accurately perceived across the population, and the proposed expansion is likely to create less controversy. Current high‐profile policies appear to follow the contours of public knowledge reasonably accurately, but further policy development will require positive efforts to lead debates and improve public knowledge.     

Family Provisions at the Workplace and Their Relationship to Absenteeism,Retention, and Productivity of Workers: Timely Evidence from Prior Data

Using data from the Australian Workplace Industrial Relations Survey, this study provides timely evidence on the effects of on‐site child care at the workplace and employer‐provided family leave on worker absenteeism, turnover, and productivity. The study found that workplaces with on‐site child care compared with workplaces with no on‐site child care had lower rates of absenteeism and higher ratings for worker productivity. Workplaces that had a family leave policy also had lower rates of absenteeism than workplaces that had no such policy in place. Analyses also suggest that workplace characteristics, such as presence of a human‐resources manager or union representative, are associated with higher worker productivity. Firm size, mission, and shift work were other predictors of worker performance. The findings argue strongly for an extensive, new workplace survey that can elucidate how parents today manage to abide by new workplace agreements while still handling the demands of family life.     

Competition Between Banks and Building Societies in the Retailing of Financial Services

Within the financial services sector there has been diversification on a vast scale, with varying degrees of success. Financial services are increasingly viewed as products, the various branch networks as channels of distribution. The competition between banks and building societies has become a major battleground in the war for consumers' financial services expenditure. Both types of organization have a strong presence in the high street and have become major users of media advertising and other marketing weaponry. Historically, they have both enjoyed strong but different forms of relationship with their customers; these differences are rapidly diminishing as each invades the other's trading territory. This paper presents results from a study of bank-building society competition, illustrating the attributes and dimensions upon which consumers tend to base their choices. Financial services retailers are urged to base their marketing strategies upon a clear understanding of consumer needs and motives, not upon ‘me-too’ responses to competitors' moves. As many product retailers have discovered to their cost, heavy marketing expenditure cannot be a substitute for a well founded retail marketing strategy.     

Testing the demand-control-support model among health-care professionals: A structural equation model

This paper reports a further empirical validation of the Demand-Control-Support Model (DCS model), which was developed by Johnson and colleagues (1988, 1989). Data were collected from a heterogeneous group of health-care professionals (nurses and nurses' aides; n = 249). Three major refinements were made to the validation of the DCS Model. First, all relationships in the model were estimated simultaneously by means of covariance structure modelling (LISREL 8). Second, the control dimension was refined substantially, using a psychometrically more sound assessment of the workers' autonomy. Third, the model was applied to the work of health-care professionals. The data did not confirm the assumption that both job strain and motivation are multiplicative functions of job demands, autonomy and social support. First, the results suggested that high levels of autonomy attenuate the increase of emotional exhaustion due to job demands. These results partially supported Karasek's Job Demand-Control Model (Karasek 1979). Second, high levels of social support proved to attenuate the increase of emotional exhaustion due to autonomy. Finally, the main effect of autonomy on job challenge implied that an increase in autonomy is accompanied by an increase in job challenge (and, consequently, job involvement). In addition, low job demands and a high amount of work-related support seem to reduce feelings of exhaustion and, consequently, health complaints.     

The Effects of Exposure to "Synthetic" Chemicals on Human Health: A Review

This article examines how scientists use human, animal, and bacterial evidence to develop policy recommendations about the health consequences of human exposure to modern chemicals. Human evidence is limited because many epidemiological studies are contaminated with selection effects or unobserved heterogeneity. Changes in the aggregate incidence of morbidity (such as cancer) in the population over time are not a substitute for the lack of good individual-level data because incidence data are contaminated by the medicalization of cancer. Animal tests are also problematic because the expense of conducting experiments leads researchers to use only enough animals to allow detection of large differences in cancer incidence between controls and experimental animals that can only arise if the exposure doses are large. Predictions about the cancer incidence that would result in humans at much lower exposure levels, thus, require statistical inferences that implicitly make choices between false positive and false negative inference errors. Policy recommendations about carcinogens, therefore, are as much the product of value choices as "scientific" knowledge.