Defender–Attacker Decision Tree Analysis to Combat Terrorism

We propose a methodology, called defender–attacker decision tree analysis, to evaluate defensive actions against terrorist attacks in a dynamic and hostile environment. Like most game‐theoretic formulations of this problem, we assume that the defenders act rationally by maximizing their expected utility or minimizing their expected costs. However, we do not assume that attackers maximize their expected utilities. Instead, we encode the defender's limited knowledge about the attacker's motivations and capabilities as a conditional probability distribution over the attacker's decisions. We apply this methodology to the problem of defending against possible terrorist attacks on commercial airplanes, using one of three weapons: infrared‐guided MANPADS (man‐portable air defense systems), laser‐guided MANPADS, or visually targeted RPGs (rocket propelled grenades). We also evaluate three countermeasures against these weapons: DIRCMs (directional infrared countermeasures), perimeter control around the airport, and hardening airplanes. The model includes deterrence effects, the effectiveness of the countermeasures, and the substitution of weapons and targets once a specific countermeasure is selected. It also includes a second stage of defensive decisions after an attack occurs. Key findings are: (1) due to the high cost of the countermeasures, not implementing countermeasures is the preferred defensive alternative for a large range of parameters; (2) if the probability of an attack and the associated consequences are large, a combination of DIRCMs and ground perimeter control are preferred over any single countermeasure.     

A Theory of Time Preference

This article proposes that people generally prefer present consumption to future consumption because their expected utility from consumption (eventually) falls as their mental and physical abilities (eventually) decline with age. Moreover, contrary to the ubiquitous intertemporal formulation with a constant rate of time preference and contrary to three recent theories of time preference that predict decreasing discounting as people age, this article asserts that discounting increases over the life cycle. This hypothesis is supported by data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics as well as evidence from numerous previous studies.     

A vector of quarters representation for bivariate time series

In this paper it is shown that several models for a bivariate nonstationary quarterly time series are nested in a vector autoregression with cointegration restrictions for the eight annual series of quarterly observations. Or, the Granger Representation Theorem is extended to incorporate, e.g., seasonal and periodic cointegration.     

The logic of sacrifice in the book of job: Philosophy and the practice of religion

Abstract

The relation between truth and violence is explored through the logic of sacrifice presented in the Book of Job. Job, as an arbitrary sacrificial victim, learns the truth of the violence perpetrated against him. Such violence is also shown to be constitutive of Western reasoning, including its practices of the truth.     

Social Networks Derived from Affiliations and Friendships, Multi-informant and Self-reports: Stability, Concordance, Placement of Aggressive and Unpopular Children, and Centrality

This study compares three variations in how researchers construct middle childhood social networks: (1) with friendships or affiliations as a relational tie; (2) with children providing self reports of relationships, or in addition, multi-informant reports of relationships in which they are not involved; and (3) whether network computation is correlational or distance-based . The sample was 357 fourth- and fifth-grade students in 17 classrooms. The strongest differences were between self-reported friendship and affiliative networks. Results showed that compared with affiliations, friendship networks had smaller groups, more isolates, and lower fall-to-spring stability. Agreement in social placement between friendship and affiliative networks was generally average, but poor for unpopular and aggressive children. Multi-informant affiliative networks were most robust in their positioning of aggressive children. Multi-informant centrality was uniquely uncorrelated with aggression. Network computation differences were not substantial. Discussion focuses on recommendations for research and the educational promise of network technology.     

Religious affiliation and Hispanic health in Utah

Two research hypotheses are addressed in this study. (1) Do health trajectories of Hispanics in Utah differ from what has been documented in states with longstanding large Hispanic populations? (2) Do non-Mormon groups in Utah have less favorable health status than Mormons in Utah? This study employs three health outcome measures: activity limitations caused by emotional problems, activity limitations caused by physical problems, and self-rated health status using the 2001 Utah Health Status Survey. Comparisons of Hispanics in their traditional settings within the U.S. generally show more favorable health status for Hispanics than for whites. We find little difference in health status between Hispanics in Utah and their Anglo counterparts. Hispanics were more likely than Anglos to have “a little” activity limitation due to physical problems, but were not more likely to report “a little” or “considerable” activity limitations due to emotional or physical problems. Hispanics and Anglos were statistically equal in probability of self-reported fair to poor health. Important in relation to studies outside of Utah, we find little support for the epidemiologic paradox, the usual finding of more favorable health for Hispanics than for whites. As with ethnicity, we find little difference between non-Mormon and Mormons with respect to health. The most notable exception is that Mormon Hispanics are at a significantly greater risk of emotional problems than Catholic Hispanics in Utah.     

Relationships among JIT practices: an interpretive modeling approach

Abstract

This research develops a model of relationships among components of Total-JIT, including JIT-information, JIT-manufacturing, JIT-purchasing, and JIT-selling, to establish an implementation hierarchy based on relative importance. The data collected relates to the relationships among JIT components and two performance measures, supply chain competency and organizational performance. Two groups are used in the research, one group of five operations management academics and another group of 30 practicing operations managers working in U.S. manufacturing firms. An interpretive structural modelling methodology is used to develop alternative structural models. The academics’ data show JIT-information emerging as lynchpin of relationships, directly impacting all other JIT practices and both performance measures. The practitioners’ data indicates that all JIT practices and performance measures are interactive as components and outcomes. This study is the first to apply interpretive structural modelling to investigate the interplay among total-JIT components and the performance measures of supply chain competency and organizational performance.     

Using Panel Data to Understand the Dynamics of Human Behavior in Response to Flooding

Insights into the dynamics of human behavior in response to flooding are urgently needed for the development of effective integrated flood risk management strategies, and for integrating human behavior in flood risk modeling. However, our understanding of the dynamics of risk perceptions, attitudes, individual recovery processes, as well as adaptive (i.e., risk reducing) intention and behavior are currently limited because of the predominant use of cross-sectional surveys in the flood risk domain. Here, we present the results from one of the first panel surveys in the flood risk domain covering a relatively long period of time (i.e., four years after a damaging event), three survey waves, and a wide range of topics relevant to the role of citizens in integrated flood risk management. The panel data, consisting of 227 individuals affected by the 2013 flood in Germany, were analyzed using repeated-measures ANOVA and latent class growth analysis (LCGA) to utilize the unique temporal dimension of the data set. Results show that attitudes, such as the respondents’ perceived responsibility within flood risk management, remain fairly stable over time. Changes are observed partly for risk perceptions and mainly for individual recovery and intentions to undertake risk-reducing measures. LCGA reveal heterogeneous recovery and adaptation trajectories that need to be taken into account in policies supporting individual recovery and stimulating societal preparedness. More panel studies in the flood risk domain are needed to gain better insights into the dynamics of individual recovery, risk-reducing behavior, and associated risk and protective factors.     

Matching in sexual experience for married, cohabitating, and dating couples

The present study examined heterosexual romantic partners' number of intercourse partners prior to the initiation of their relationship to determine if a significant positive correlation (matching) occurred between partners, and if this matching was associated with their level of love, satisfaction with, and commitment to the relationship. One hundred and six couples who were dating, cohabitating, or married participated in this study. Results indicated that, with the exception of cohabitating couples, romantic partners showed a significant level of matching in the prior number of intercourse partners. Further, among the married couples, a higher discrepancy between men's and women's number of previous intercourse partners was related to lower levels of love, satisfaction, and commitment in the relationship.     

Gambling and Alcohol Use: Trends in the State of New Mexico from 1996–1998

Alcohol consumption and its relationship to gambling was examined in a statewide New Mexico survey in 1996 and 1998. Data regarding both drinking habits and gambling behavior were obtained from a stratified random sample of the adult population (N = 2674) across the entire State of New Mexico via phone survey. These surveys were carried out shortly after a period when New Mexico experienced an initial surge in the legalized gaming industry. Fifty-seven percent of survey respondents reported drinking in the past month, while 43.1% reported no drinking in the past 30 days. Results show that while the number of days in the past 30 that a person drinks is significantly correlated with some types of gambling behavior (e.g., in 1998, drinking more days was associated with more card gambling and sports gambling), it is the amount of alcohol consumed per occasion that is associated with more gambling behavior. For example, in both 1996 and 1998, drinking more per occasion was associated with more sports betting, dice gambling, number/lottery gambling, gambling using machines, and paper game gambling (e.g., pull tabs, punchboard). These results suggest that problem gambling behavior is not affected as much by the number of occasions on which one consumes alcohol, as by the amount of alcohol consumed per occasion.