Computation of final outcome probabilities for the generalised stochastic epidemic

This paper is concerned with methods for the numerical calculation of the final outcome distribution for a well-known stochastic epidemic model in a closed population. The model is of the SIR (Susceptible→Infected→ Removed) type, and the infectious period can have any specified distribution. The final outcome distribution is specified by the solution of a triangular system of linear equations, but the form of the distribution leads to inherent numerical problems in the solution. Here we employ multiple precision arithmetic to surmount these problems. As applications of our methodology, we assess the accuracy of two approximations that are frequently used in practice, namely an approximation for the probability of an epidemic occurring, and a Gaussian approximation to the final number infected in the event of an outbreak. We also present an example of Bayesian inference for the epidemic threshold parameter.     

Recession and Migration: A New Era for Labor Migration?

The current recession, the worst in a half century, is likely to affect international migration differently than past recessions. In 1973–1974 and 1981–1982, rising oil prices led to recessions in oil‐importing countries and economic booms in oil‐exporting countries, enabling some migrants to shift from bust to boom areas, as from Europe to the Middle East. The 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis did not spread globally, and was followed by a relatively quick resumption of economic and job growth that attracted migrant workers. The 2008–2009 recession is most severe in countries that had the most severe debt excesses, including the U.S., Spain, and Eastern Europe, and in countries most dependent on trade, including many Asian countries. New deployments of migrants are likely to slow, but what is not yet clear is how many migrants who lose jobs will remain abroad.     

Intergenerational fertility among hispanic women: New evidence of immigrant assimilation

In recent decades, rapid growth of the U.S. Hispanic population has raised concerns about immigrant adaptation, including fertility. Empirical research suggests that Hispanics, especially Mexicans, might not be following the historical European pattern of rapid intergenerational fertility decline (and convergence toward native levels). If confirmed, continued high Hispanic fertility could indicate a broader lack of assimilation into mainstream American society. In this paper, we reexamine the issue of Hispanic and Mexican fertility using an approach that combines biological and immigrant generations to more closely approximate a comparison of immigrant women with those of their daughters’ and granddaughters’ generation. Contrary to cross-sectional results, our new analyses show that Hispanic and Mexican fertility is converging with that of whites, and that it is similarly responsive to period conditions and to women’s level of education. In addition, we employ a mathematical simulation to illustrate the conditions under which cross-sectional analyses can produce misleading results. Finally, we discuss the import of the fertility convergence we document for debates about immigrant assimilation.     

The quality of retrospective data on Cohabitation

We assess the quality of retrospective data on cohabitation by comparing data collected in four major U.S. family surveys: the National Survey of Families and Households and three rounds of the National Survey of Family Growth. We use event-history analysis to analyze rates of entry into cohabitation in age-period-cohort segments captured by multiple surveys. We find consistent discrepancies among the four surveys. The pattern of differences suggests that cohabitation histories underestimate cohabitation rates in distant periods relative to rates estimated closer to the date of survey. We conclude with cautions regarding the use of retrospective data on cohabitation.     

Aristotle and Open Population Thinking

Aristotle's Politics contains the most extensive consideration of actual populations to survive from Antiquity. Population, for Aristotle, is a logistics of memberships. The size, fertility, and other properties of a state's population are determined by relationships among the several subpopulations that it comprises. This approach gives rise to a comprehensive logic that addresses many policy concerns of modern demography, yet within fundamentally different ideas of quantification and structure. Some of this logic fits easily with current demographic thinking. Relations among sub‐populations, for example, play a crucial role in population change because they are conduits of communication and reflect differences in education. Aristotle's method stands in contrast to modern demographic thinking, however, in treating migration, inequality, and the mutability of population memberships as primary processes of population change. Given that interest in this conjunction of issues is now central to the demography of globalization, there is added reason to consider Aristotle's insights as complementary to modern population studies. His principal case study, the constitution of Athens, illustrates the development of his thought.     

The creative economy: invention of a global orthodoxy

This essay considers how policy thinking about culture has been steadily transformed into an overwhelmingly economic subject matter whose central trope is the “creative economy”. The development of current ideas and their background are discussed. Policy ideas first fully developed in the UK have had a global resonance: the illustrative examples of the European Union and the United Nations are discussed. The embedding of creative economy thinking in British cultural institutions such as the BBC and cultural support bodies is illustrated. The impact of current orthodoxy on academic institutions and research is also considered. Countervailing trends are weak. New thinking is now required.     

Teaching as a primary therapeutic intervention for learners from refugee backgrounds

Abstract

Refugees almost invariably have a history of traumatic experience and significant loss. However, for some, therapy is neither a practical nor a readily available solution and for others, it may present further challenges in terms of stigma or cultural inappropriateness. On the other hand, a classroom is generally considered unthreatening and, as teachers are with their learners on a regular basis, the opportunity exists for them to provide support and a form of healing. This article presents a range of therapeutic pedagogical strategies which can provide interventions for refugee backgrounds learners. It makes particular reference to the New Zealand on-arrival programme for refugees.     

Parental responsibilities: Reformulating the paradigm for parent–child relationships Part 1: What is wrong with the ways in which we deal with the children of separated parents and how to put them right

This is the first part of a two-part article, which calls for the removal of terms such as rights and custody, including joint and shared custody, and visitation from the legal discourse in relation to children and their parents. This part demonstrates how the current discourse, based on the competing rights of the parents, leads inevitably to competitiveness and litigation, which are highly damaging to the child. The proposed paradigm of parental responsibilities requires establishing the needs of the specific child when there are parental disharmony and separation, while emphasizing the joint responsibilities of both parents to ensure that those needs are adequately met. This part also addresses the question: who has parental responsibilities, when a child is born as a result of Assisted Reproductive Technology, and also the quasi-parental role of the court.     

Conservative Politics,Sacred Cows,and Sacrificial Lambs: The (Mis)Use of Evidence in Canada's Political and Penal Fields

This article explores the federal government's justifications for its decision to cancel Canada's prison farm program, and demonstrates how Harper's Conservatives used talk of “evidence,” “science,” and “research” to appear to be performing good, modern governance. We argue that developments within the penal field are deeply intertwined with activities within the political field—and are more clearly understood when situated within the broader context of politics, science, and the strategic (mis)use of evidence. Scholars must be careful in assuming the state is actually engaging evidence rather than doing so only at the level of rhetoric and discourse. Cet article explore les justifications utilisées par le gouvernement fédéral par rapport à sa décision d'annuler le programme canadien de prisons‐fermes, et démontre comment les conservateurs d'Harper ont utilisé les notions d’‘évidence’, de ‘science’ et de ‘recherche’ pour donner une apparence de bonne performance et de gouvernance moderne. Nous affirmons que les développements du champ pénal sont profondément imbriqués avec les activités à l'intérieur du champ politique—et sont mieux comprises lorsque situés dans le cadre plus large des politiques, de la science et des stratégies de (mal)utilisation d’évidences. Les spécialistes devraient être prudents lorsqu'ils assument que l’État prend réellement en compte les évidences alors qu'il est en fait seulement au niveau de la rhétorique et du discours.