French and British Top Managers' Understanding of the Structure and the Dynamics of Their Industries: a Cognitive Analysis and Comparison

This paper presents the findings of an exploratory study of the content of and differences between managerial frames of references with regard to the structure and dynamics of competitive environments. These frames of references are examined and compared at both the industry level and the country level; and the paper shows the influences of both industry and institutional structures and national culture on managerial thinking. It therefore contributes to the field of comparative management, as well as the growing interest in cognitive analysis in the field of management. The study is particularly significant since (a) its context is the rapidly changing industry environment of Europe, and (b) the managers are all involved in the development of strategies for their firms. Thirty three top managers (16 English and 17 French) were interviewed in four industries (brewing, car manufacturing, retail banking and book publishing) on their understanding of their industry and the strategy of their company. Content analysis of the transcribed interviews surfaces cognitive constructs which facilitate the identification of similarities and differences between managers, (a) within industries, (b) across industries, (c) within countries, (d) between countries and (e) between countries within the different industries. The analysis also provides means whereby the constructs can be represented in the form of cognitive maps.     

Robustness evaluation of multisite distributed schedule with perturbed virtual jobshops

A method for evaluating the robustness of medium term multisite distributed schedule is presented. The method of robustness evaluation is based on steps and tools associated with the conceptual model of a MultiSite Reactive Production Activity Control (MSR-PAC). The MSR-PAC makes it possible to study the sensitivity of the scheduled plans in presence of perturbations. These must be evaluated before being dispatched to the shop-floors. At present, to the best of the authors' knowledge, there is no means to make this evaluation in the distributed systems such as extended enterprise. The monitoring of errors is based on the discrepancy between the two flow-shape functions that model respectively the dynamics of the scheduled manufacturing orders and the state of the perturbed production. The MSR-PAC is based on a multisite agent system and on the monitoring of the perturbed virtual jobshops. The method can also be used for controlling short term distributed production activities.     

Estimation of the Force of Infection from Current Status Data Using Generalized Linear Mixed Models

Based on sero-prevalence data of rubella, mumps in the UK and varicella in Belgium, we show how the force of infection, the age-specific rate at which susceptible individuals contract infection, can be estimated using generalized linear mixed models (McCulloch & Searle, 2001). Modelling the dependency of the force of infection on age by penalized splines, which involve fixed and random effects, allows us to use generalized linear mixed models techniques to estimate both the cumulative probability of being infected before a given age and the force of infection. Moreover, these models permit an automatic selection of the smoothing parameter. The smoothness of the estimated force of infection can be influenced by the number of knots and the degree of the penalized spline used. To determine these, a different number of knots and different degrees are used and the results are compared to establish this sensitivity. Simulations with a different number of knots and polynomial spline bases of different degrees suggest - for estimating the force of infection from serological data - the use of a quadratic penalized spline based on about 10 knots.     

Le modèle de « l'État-stratège » : genèse d'une forme organisationnelle dans l'administration française

Since the 1990s, a new organisational form of the administrative system in France has been steadily redefining relations between central administrations and local state units. Labelled “the steering state” or the “managerial state”, this new paradigm hinges on separating the strategic functions of steering and controlling the state from the operational functions of execution and policy implementation. The making of this new form of state organization involves two parallel processes: political and cognitive. For one thing, the adoption of concrete measures for “government at distance” results from power struggles between three major ministries (Home Office, Budget and Civil Service). For another, a new legitimate “categorization of the state” is being formed in the major committees involved in the reform process of the 1990s; it is borne by top civil servants and inspired by the ideas of New Public Management. — Special issue: New patterns of institutions.     

Disappointment without prior expectation: a unifying perspective on decision under risk

The central idea of Disappointment theory is that an individual forms an expectation about a risky alternative, and may experience disappointment if the outcome eventually obtained falls short of the expectation. We abandon the hypothesis of a well-defined prior expectation: disappointment feelings may arise from comparing the outcome received with anyof the gamble’s outcomes that the individual failed to get. This leads to a new, general form of Disappointment model. It encompasses Rank Dependent Utility with an explicit one-parameter probability transformation, and Risk-Value models with a generic risk measure including Variance, providing a unifying behavioral foundation for these models. JEL Classification D80 . D81     

Contents Volume 54

Volume Contents

Contents Volume 54     

Comment se font les administrations : analyser des activités administratives constituantes

Between studies in historical sociology on changes in public administrations and microsociological analyses of the ordinary work done by civil servants, an intermediate perspective is advocated, one centered on “constituent administrative activities”. Following a panorama of the varied researches on public administrations, the proposal is made to focus on the arrangements that shape administrations and form their essential operations. Recruitment, personnel evaluation, the division of labor, the restructuring of hierarchies and the activities of keeping written records and statistics (writing and counting) should be the subjects of study. When placed in their historical and social contexts, they help us better understand how public administrations last and change. Discussing the scale of analysis and making comparisons over time and in space, this article presents the other contributions to this special issue. Less linear approaches are suggested for analyzing the historical processes of the “bureaucratization” and “managerialization” of administrative systems.     

Harsanyi's Aggregation Theorem: multi-profile version and unsettled questions

Harsanyi's Aggregation Theorem states that if the individuals' as well as the moral observer's utility functions are von Neumann-Morgenstern, and a Pareto condition holds, then the latter function is affine in terms of the former. Sen and others have objected to Harsanyi's use of this result as an argument for utilitarianism. The present article proves an analogue of the Aggregation Theorem within the multi-profile formalism of social welfare functionals. This restatement and two closely related results provide a framework in which the theorem can be compared with well-known characterisations of utilitarianism, and its ethical significance can be better appreciated. While several interpretative questions remain unsettled, it is argued that at least one major objection among those raised by Sen has been answered.The author is grateful to V. Barham, J. Broome, M. Fleurbaey, D. Hausman, S. Kolm, J. Roemer, and P. Suppes, for useful discussions and suggestions. Special thanks are due to C. d'Aspremont, N. McClennen, J. Weymark, and an anonymous referee for detailed comments on an earlier version. The usual caveat applies. The author also gratefully acknowledges financial support from the SPES programme of the Union Européenne.     

Discovering Spatio-Temporal Models of the Spread of West Nile Virus

Emerging infectious diseases are characterized by complex interactions among disease agents, vectors, wildlife, humans, and the environment. Since the appearance of West Nile virus (WNV) in New York City in 1999, it has infected over 8,000 people in the United States, resulting in several hundred deaths in 46 contiguous states. The virus is transmitted by mosquitoes and maintained in various bird reservoir hosts. Its unexpected introduction, high morbidity, and rapid spread have left public health agencies facing severe time constraints in a theory-poor environment, dependent largely on observational data collected by independent survey efforts and much uncertainty. Current knowledge may be expressed as a priori constraints on models learned from data. Accordingly, we applied a Bayesian probabilistic relational approach to generate spatially and temporally linked models from heterogeneous data sources. Using data collected from multiple independent sources in Maryland, we discovered the integrated context in which infected birds are plausible indicators for positive mosquito pools and human cases for 2001 and 2002.