Comment se font les administrations : analyser des activités administratives constituantes

Between studies in historical sociology on changes in public administrations and microsociological analyses of the ordinary work done by civil servants, an intermediate perspective is advocated, one centered on “constituent administrative activities”. Following a panorama of the varied researches on public administrations, the proposal is made to focus on the arrangements that shape administrations and form their essential operations. Recruitment, personnel evaluation, the division of labor, the restructuring of hierarchies and the activities of keeping written records and statistics (writing and counting) should be the subjects of study. When placed in their historical and social contexts, they help us better understand how public administrations last and change. Discussing the scale of analysis and making comparisons over time and in space, this article presents the other contributions to this special issue. Less linear approaches are suggested for analyzing the historical processes of the “bureaucratization” and “managerialization” of administrative systems.     

Harsanyi's Aggregation Theorem: multi-profile version and unsettled questions

Harsanyi's Aggregation Theorem states that if the individuals' as well as the moral observer's utility functions are von Neumann-Morgenstern, and a Pareto condition holds, then the latter function is affine in terms of the former. Sen and others have objected to Harsanyi's use of this result as an argument for utilitarianism. The present article proves an analogue of the Aggregation Theorem within the multi-profile formalism of social welfare functionals. This restatement and two closely related results provide a framework in which the theorem can be compared with well-known characterisations of utilitarianism, and its ethical significance can be better appreciated. While several interpretative questions remain unsettled, it is argued that at least one major objection among those raised by Sen has been answered.The author is grateful to V. Barham, J. Broome, M. Fleurbaey, D. Hausman, S. Kolm, J. Roemer, and P. Suppes, for useful discussions and suggestions. Special thanks are due to C. d'Aspremont, N. McClennen, J. Weymark, and an anonymous referee for detailed comments on an earlier version. The usual caveat applies. The author also gratefully acknowledges financial support from the SPES programme of the Union Européenne.     

Discovering Spatio-Temporal Models of the Spread of West Nile Virus

Emerging infectious diseases are characterized by complex interactions among disease agents, vectors, wildlife, humans, and the environment. Since the appearance of West Nile virus (WNV) in New York City in 1999, it has infected over 8,000 people in the United States, resulting in several hundred deaths in 46 contiguous states. The virus is transmitted by mosquitoes and maintained in various bird reservoir hosts. Its unexpected introduction, high morbidity, and rapid spread have left public health agencies facing severe time constraints in a theory-poor environment, dependent largely on observational data collected by independent survey efforts and much uncertainty. Current knowledge may be expressed as a priori constraints on models learned from data. Accordingly, we applied a Bayesian probabilistic relational approach to generate spatially and temporally linked models from heterogeneous data sources. Using data collected from multiple independent sources in Maryland, we discovered the integrated context in which infected birds are plausible indicators for positive mosquito pools and human cases for 2001 and 2002.     

Tools for decision making under imprecise risk

Generalizing risk, imprecise risk is a situation where available objective information is expressible by a lower probability. We study properties of certain lower probabilities in metrizable spaces. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived for stability of their cores under image and mixture, which are useful features in applying Expected Utility Theory under imprecise risk. Received: December 2000; revised version: March 2001     

Extremely Premature and Very Low Birthweight Infants: A Double Hazard Population?

This article evaluates the contributions of birth status (defined by gestational age and birthweight) and family adversity at birth and at age 7 to explaining behavior problems at age 7. The behaviors of 96 extremely preterm and very low birth‐weight children and 66 full‐term children were assessed in a school setting by peers, teachers and parents. The results show that a significant relationship exists between birth status and isolation and social withdrawal problems as well as between birth status and social immaturity and inattention problems. Family adversity at birth has a significant contribution to aggressive behaviors reported by the three sources whereas, at age 7, this index is associated only with aggressive behaviors and social immaturity problems reported by parents. In conclusion, the results of the present study qualify the findings of studies that suggest that at school age, the effect of prematurity decreases and that behavior problems are explained chiefly by family environment characteristics. Our results indicate that the findings must take into account the cohort studied, the environmental measures used, the type of behaviors assessed as well as the type of informants.     

THE EVALUATION PHASE OF SYSTEMIC FAMILY THERAPY*

The initial, evaluation phase of family therapy is of decisive importance within the systemic perspective. Contacting a therapist is always a complex action for a family. The therapist's evaluation must include the possibility that continued contact may influence the family negatively and limit their potential for change. If there appears to be a logical context in which continued therapy can be justified, it will be necessary to use the first three or four sessions to collect essential data and to organize them meaningfully. It is essential to clarify the circular interaction that is maintaining the symptom, as well as the presence of specific family structures and traditions, and the kind of relationships the family attempts to establish with the therapist. On the basis of this information, the therapist can build models of the family's functioning. These models, according to general system theory, make possible logical intervention in complicated, living systems, without distorting them by artificially splitting them into their component parts. Two models that are important to our treatment perspective—the phenomenological and the mythical—are presented.     

Approximation spline de la prevision d'un processus fonctionnel autorégressif d'ordre 1

ABSTRACT We present a method to approximate and forecast, on an entire interval, a continuous-time process. For this purpose, we use the modelization of ARH(l) processes, defined by Bosq (1991). We deal with the practical problem of the discretization of the observed trajectories and approximate them by means of spline functions. We show by simulations that for well-chosen smoothing parameters, good prediction can be obtained in comparison with the “predictable” part of the process. Finally, we apply this model to forecast road traffic and compare it with a SARIMA model.     

La victime et le policier : point de vue profane et point de vue professionnel sur la délinquance

Comparing surveys of victims with police statistics illustrates the differences between lay and professional views of crime. Victims’expectations and the police handling of cases do not always match. The determinants of victims’ decisions to report incidents to the police are briefly summarised; and the ways the police classify victims’account and handle their complaints, examined. This analysis is based on two sets of data: a victimisation survey of a sample of 10?504 persons aged 15 and older, drawn from the Île-de-France Region; the police statistics corresponding to the same area.     

How Therapeutic Intervention Does Create the Prerequisites of Change in Human Relations

The purpose of this paper is to stress our belief that therapeutic intervention does not have the power to create durable, predetermined changes in human systems. Still, a number of therapists seem to feel that certain adjustments are necessary if improvement is to occur and try to convince families to adopt them. Such partial moves ignore the question of what has prevented the family from discovering such beneficial adaptations on its own.
We suggest that the basic rules of the family prohibit it from changing. Tb stimulate the inherent healing capacities of human systems, a preferable goal might be to validate the present functioning of the family through an understanding of the different levels of its self perception (phenomenological model, mythical model). If this is done effectively, a possible reformulation of the relationship is truly facilitated. Relations between the participants will continue, but will no longer be what they were before. The effectiveness of the intervention is confirmed by the appearance of new beliefs, new perceptions. Any behavioral modifications shown by family members are logical consequences of their new conception of the relationship, not the causes of it.