Une Dialectique Des Migrations : Acculturation Et Transition Démographique

It is argued that two types of migration have tended to follow each other. One is a ‘colonizing’ migration corresponding to a technical, military and economic advantage of one group over another, associated at first with a demographic surge in the first group; the other is a ‘social-capillarity’ migration occurring when the first, ‘colonizing’ group has completed its demographic transition and the second has barely started. Two hypotheses concerning the outcome of this process are presented. The first — optimistic — hypothesis of economic advance in the second group, implies a return to demographic equilibrium. The second hypothesis is a catastrophic one, the implications of which are hard to predict. Finally, the need for a specific co-operative effort is underlined.     

Statistical models for the analysis of controlled trials on acute migraine

Specific efficacy criteria were defined by the International Headache Society for controlled clinical trials on acute migraine. They are derived from the pain profile and the timing of rescue medication intake. We present a methodology to improve the analysis of such trials. Instead of analysing each endpoint separately, we model the joint distribution and derive success rates in any criteria as predictions. We use cumulative regression models for each response at a time and a multivariate normal copula to model the dependence between responses. Parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood. Benefits of the method include a reduction in the number of tests performed and an increase in their power. The method is well suited to dose–response trials from which predictions can be used to select doses and optimize the design of subsequent trials. More generally, our method permits a very flexible modelling of longitudinal series of ordinal data. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparative Mixed Risk Aversion: Definition and Application to Self-Protection and Willingness to Pay

We analyze the optimal choices of agents with utility functions whose derivatives alternate in sign, an important class that includes most of the functions commonly used in economics and finance (Mixed Risk Aversion, MRA, Caballé and Pomansky, 1996). We propose a comparative mixed risk aversion definition for this class of utility functions, namely, More Risk Averse MRA, and provide a sufficient condition to compare individuals. We apply the model to optimal prevention and willingness to pay. More risk averse MRA agents spend less to reduce accident probabilities that are above 1/2. They spend more only when accident probabilities are below 1/2. Explanations in terms of risk premiums are provided. The results presented also allow for the presence of background risk.     

A new axiomatic foundation of partial comparability

The paper presents some results obtained in searching for a new axiomatic foundation for partial comparability (PC) in the frame of non-conventional preference modeling. The basic idea is to define an extended preference structure able to represent lack of information, uncertainty, ambiguity, multidimensional and conflicting preferences, using formal logic as the basic formalism.A four-valued paraconsistent logic is therefore described in the paper as a more suitable language for the purposes of the research. The concepts of partition, general binary relations properties, fundamental relational system of preferences (f.r.s.p.), maximal f.r.s.p. and well founded f.r.s.p. are then introduced and some theorems are demonstrated in order to provide the axiomatic foundation of PC. The main result obtained is a preference structure that is a maximal well founded f.r.s.p. This preference structure facilitates a more flexible, reliable and robust preference modeling. Moreover it can be viewed as a generalization of the conventional approach, so that all the results obtained until now can be used under it.Two examples are provided at the end of the paper in order to give an account of the operational potentialities of the new theory, mainly in the area of multicriteria decision aid and social choice theory. Further research directions conclude the paper.This research has been done while the first author was in the Université Libre de Bruxelles under the Research in Brussels actions.     

The Haitian Revolution,History's New Frontier: State of the Scholarship and Archival Sources

Focusing on the era of the Haitian Revolution, this article analyses recent historiographical developments in both French and English. Though the field has made great strides in recent decades, it occasionally remains hampered by insufficient archival research, a parochial approach by US and French scholars, and linguistic fragmentation. The article also includes a survey of the main archival resources that are available to scholars in Europe, the Caribbean, and the USA.     

Allocation rules for cooperative games with restricted communication and a priori unions based on the Myerson value and the average tree solution

We consider cooperatives games (TU-games) enriched by a system of a priori unions and a communication forest graph which are independent from each other. These two structures reflect the limitations of cooperation possibilities. In this framework, we introduce four Owen-type allocation rules, which are defined by a two-step application of an allocation rule à la Owen (in: Henn R, Moeschlin O (eds) Essays in mathematical economics and game theory, Springer, Berlin, 1977) to TU-games with a priori unions where the TU-game is replaced by Myerson’s (Math Oper Res 2:225–229, 1977) graph-restricted TU-game. The four possibilities arise by applying, at each step, either the Myerson value (Myerson 1977) or the average tree solution (Herings et al. in Games Econ Behav 62:77–92, 2008). Our main result offers comparable axiomatizations of these four allocation rules.

     

Conditional mode estimation for functional stationary ergodic data with responses missing at random

In this paper, we investigate the asymptotic properties of a non-parametric conditional mode estimation given a functional explanatory variable, when functional stationary ergodic data and missing at random responses are observed. First of all, we establish asymptotic properties for a conditional density estimator from which we derive almost sure convergence (with rate) and asymptotic normality of a conditional mode estimator. This new estimate take into account missing data, and a simulation study is performed to illustrate how this fact allows to get higher predictive performances than those obtained with standard estimates.     

The effect of parameter estimation on the performance of one-sided Shewhart control charts for zero-inflated processes

ABSTRACT

Zero-inflated probability models are used to model count data that have an excessive number of zeros. Shewhart-type control charts have been proposed for the monitoring of zero-inflated processes. Usually their performance is evaluated under the assumption of known process parameters. However, in practice, their values are rarely known and they have to be estimated from an in-control historical Phase I sample. In the present paper, we investigate the performance of Shewhart-type control charts for zero-inflated processes with estimated parameters and propose practical guidelines for the statistical design of the examined charts, when the size of the preliminary sample is predetermined.