Model-based measurement of latent risk in time series with applications

Summary.  Risk is at the centre of many policy decisions in companies, governments and other institutions. The risk of road fatalities concerns local governments in planning countermeasures, the risk and severity of counterparty default concerns bank risk managers daily and the risk of infection has actuarial and epidemiological consequences. However, risk cannot be observed directly and it usually varies over time. We introduce a general multivariate time series model for the analysis of risk based on latent processes for the exposure to an event, the risk of that event occurring and the severity of the event. Linear state space methods can be used for the statistical treatment of the model. The new framework is illustrated for time series of insurance claims, credit card purchases and road safety. It is shown that the general methodology can be effectively used in the assessment of risk.     

Mediation and Minority Members of Academe

Focus groups are used to gather information from minorities in a university setting. Minority members of three campus groups (students, staff, and faculty) identified issues that could lead to relational conflicts. Alternative methods of dispute resolution are discussed in terms of their suitability and viability for use by minorities in academe. Mediation is presented as the preferred process for conflict resolution on an increasing number of college and university campuses. Mediation as a form of sociological practice in academia is a wide-open field of opportunity.     

Crisis in rural life and crisis in thinking: directions for critical research*

La crise contemporaine de la vie rurale et agricole c'est produite simultanément avec une crise de la pensée et de la recherche critique: une analyse basée sur l'engagement à créer une société plus rationelle, démocratique et égalitaire. L'économie politique, le paradigme prédominant, a contribuée de façon importante à l'identification et à l'analyse des méchanismes économiques sur lesquels se développent la crise sociale. Mais celui-ci n'a tenu aucun compte d'enquêter sur la façon dont une crise est vécue par ceux qui en sont le plus touchés, et sur les perspectives de changement queue crise du genre peut offrir. Ceci est due d'un côtéà la nature des hypothèses théoriques de l'économie politique, ainsi que sur la façon dont les économistes politiques utilisent les méthodes des sondages dans leurs travaux empiriques. En utilisant les ressources offertes par la theorie sociale et les résultats de recherche primaire et empirique, cet article suggère de nouvelles directions pour la recherche critique de la vie rurale. Nous expliquons que ce genre de recherche devrait devenir plus hermaneutique et phénoménologique dans le but de concentrer sur les perceptions, l'analyse personnelle et les activités de ceux qui vivent dans les milieux ruraux, surtout lorsque ceux-ci essaient de préserver leurs communautés contre l'influence de l'extérieur. II n'est plus nécessaire, de présumer que les chercheur(e)s et leur sujets doivent demeurer détachés si la recherche est sérieusement scientifique et érudite. Cet article considère certaines implications théoriques, empiriques et historiques qu'apporte cet argument. The contemporary crisis in agriculture and rural life has been paralleled by a crisis in critical thinking and research: analysis informed by the commitment to a more rational, democratic and egalitarian society. Political economy, the currently dominant critical paradigm, has made important contributions to the identification and analysis of the economic mechanisms through which social crisis develops. But it has by and large failed to probe both the ways in which crisis is actually experienced by people enduring it and the real possibilities for change that a crisis situation might offer. This failure stems both from the nature of the theoretical assumptions which inform political economy and the manner in which political economists deploy methods of survey research in their empirical work. Using both the resources of social theory and the results of empirical, primary research, this paper attempts to suggest new directions for critical research into rural life. J t argues that this research should adopt a more explicitly hermeneutical and phenomenological focus which should put the perceptions, self-understandings and activities of rural people themselves, particularly as they strive to preserve their communities against outside forces, more fully at the centre of analysis. No longer should it be assumed that researchers and those studied must remain separate if research is to be truly scholarly and scientific. The paper addresses some possible theoretical, empirical and historical     

Sexual Behaviors,Sexual Health Practices,and Community Engagement Among Gay and Bisexually Identified Men Living in Rural Areas of the United States

Limited research has focused on the sexual behaviors of men who have sex with men (MSM) from rural communities. We examined the sexual and health-related behaviors of MSM living in rural areas of the United States in order to understand the sexual health repertoire of this population. A total of 5,357 participants living in rural settings were recruited online and completed an anonymous Internet-based survey that assessed sexual behaviors, condom use, and men’s engagement with various community activities and events. These data provide a greater understanding of sexual health profiles that exist among rural MSM and will help inform the design of effective programs for men in these often underserved communities.     

Merger in the British Voluntary Sector: The Example of HIV/AIDS Agencies

This article explores the policy and organizational drives towards cooperation and merger within the voluntary sector. We draw together theoretical and empirical literature on the topic and identify six factors which may be hypothesized to be associated with a decision to cooperate in the voluntary sector: adverse macro-economic conditions; the search for an organizational niche; severe resource dependency; a drive for organizational growth; funders' concern about duplication of provision; and perceived crisis. We then present a case study which provides detailed data about the circumstances leading to a decision to merge by several independent voluntary agencies working in the HIV/AIDS field. We analyse the multiplicity of factors which drove the agencies and the complex interrelationships between those factors. Policy pressures, pragmatism and the personal values of key managers are found to be particularly important. Finally, we consider the implications of our study for policy analysis and future research.     

VOTING AND IMITATIVE BEHAVIOR

Political behavior generates private benefits by helping people fit in with desired friends. A voter imitates other voters, but at the same time they imitate him. An equilibrium solution requires exogenous variables: the narrow self-interest of the participants. The reduced form makes one's vote a function of the narrow self-interest of others as well as one's own. In accord with the model, a person's party identification depends on his ethnic group's current income and its income in 1909 as well as his own income.     

Leader behaviors and career derailment potential: A multi-analytic method examination of rating source and self–other agreement

Based on extensive research that views leadership as a multi-faceted phenomenon, we examined how the relationships between task-oriented and relationship-oriented leader behaviors and career derailment potential vary by observer perspective. We present findings using three different analytical techniques: random coefficient modeling (RCM), relative weight analysis (RWA), and polynomial regression (PR). RCM findings suggest that self-, direct report, peer, and supervisor ratings of leader behaviors differ and are associated with career derailment potential. RWA results indicate that self-ratings matter the least, whereas peer ratings of leader behaviors typically matter the most in predicting career derailment potential. PR analyses indicate that career derailment potential is lowest when self-ratings are lower than other ratings of leader behaviors and/or when self–other ratings converge on higher, rather than lower, ratings of leader behaviors. Implications for leadership and self–other agreement research and professional practice are discussed.     

A Method for Estimating Lifetime Cancer Risks from Limited Epidemiologic Data

Partly because of the poor quality of exposure information on humans, most lifetime carcinogenic risk assessments have been based on animal data. There are, however, surrogate measures for exposure that have not been fully utilized. One of these is duration of exposure where data on mean exposure levels are available. A method is presented for the use of such data, and the method is illustrated by developing a risk assessment from the available epidemiologic literature on gasoline and kidney cancer. This risk assessment is fairly consistent across studies and close to a risk assessment based upon an experiment with rats. While there needs to be much improvement in the quality of environmental data available to epidemiologists, it is possible that a number of risk assessments can be made from existing epidemiologic data and efforts directed away from extrapolation from animal data.