Debt management in a small open economy: A theoretical and an empirical study for Belgium

This article analyzes the effects of debt management and its consequence for the control of base money in a small open economy (Belgium). The study compares the effects obtained from a small theoretical model with the results of a larger empirical model.The theoretical model focuses on the financing of government by money operation, on the bond rate, and on the international reserve of the Central Bank.The empirical model is a medium-term one, including the demand and the supply sectors of the economy and permitting simultaneous analysis of real and financial variables.The effects of an endogeneous or exogenous debt management have been studied by numerical simulation of modification in the public expenditure, the world trade, and the discount rate.     

Autoportrait des footballeurs de metier

Professional football players are well known public figures and in the French case always considered as working class people. An enquiry with questionnaires showed that this does not reflect the reality of the French players in the past as well as in the present. French professional football players consider themselves as artists and their social origins are quite diverse. They use particular strategies in their careers in order to improve their social conditions. Overall, it can be said that the social standing of footballers has increased during the last decade.     

Alcohol abuse on a college campus: A needs assessment

This paper reports the results of a needs assessment study conducted by a university-based alcohol abuse prevention project. Data are presented on the drinking patterns and drinking problems of a random sample of 462 students. Results suggest that students are experiencing numerous difficulties in the physical, educational, legal and psychosocial areas due to their use of alcoholic beverages. Implications for prevention and intervention programming are discussed and the need for planning programs from a data-based perspective rather than a rational and intuitive approach is stressed.     

原子簇的合成方法、性质表征与结构

利用给电子有机和无机配位体的交换反应和金属卤化物与羰基金属阴离子的复分解反应,合成异核原子簇具有反应条件温和易于控制,收率较高的特点。本文描述Fe_3(CO)_9(C_2H_2)_3等11个原子簇的合成方法,配位状态与簇核的结构。     

Interval Estimation of the Stress-Strength Reliability with Independent Normal Random Variables

This article develops a procedure to obtain highly accurate confidence interval estimates for the stress-strength reliability R = P(X > Y) where X and Y are data from independent normal distributions of unknown means and variances. Our method is based on third-order likelihood analysis and is compared to the conventional first-order likelihood ratio procedure as well as the approximate methods of Reiser and Guttman (1986 Reiser, B., Guttman, I. (1986). Statistical inference for Pr(Y < X): the normal case. Technometrics 28: 253257.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Guo and Krishnamoorthy (2004 Guo, H., Krishnamoorthy, K. (2004). New approximate inferential methods for the reliability parameter in a stress-strength model: the normal case. Commun. Statist. Theor. Meth. 33: 17151731.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The use of our proposed method is illustrated by an empirical example and its superior accuracy in terms of coverage probability and error rate are examined through Monte Carlo simulation studies.     

A Bayesian Time Series Model of Multiple Structural Changes in Level,Trend, and Variance

We investigate whether seasonal-adjustment procedures are, at least approximately, linear data transformations. This question was initially addressed by Young and is important with respect to many issues including estimation of regression models with seasonally adjusted data. We focus on the X-11 program and rely on simulation evidence, involving linear unobserved component autoregressive integrated moving average models. We define a set of properties for the adequacy of a linear approximation to a seasonal-adjustment filter. These properties are examined through statistical tests. Next, we study the effect of X-11 seasonal adjustment on regression statistics assessing the statistical significance of the relationship between economic variables. Several empirical results involving economic data are also reported.     

Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series With a Changing Mean

This study considers testing for a unit root in a time series characterized by a structural change in its mean level. My approach follows the “intervention analysis” of Box and Tiao (1975) in the sense that I consider the change as being exogenous and as occurring at a known date. Standard unit-root tests are shown to be biased toward nonrejection of the hypothesis of a unit root when the full sample is used. Since tests using split sample regressions usually have low power, I design test statistics that allow the presence of a change in the mean of the series under both the null and alternative hypotheses. The limiting distribution of the statistics is derived and tabulated under the null hypothesis of a unit root. My analysis is illustrated by considering the behavior of various univariate time series for which the unit-root hypothesis has been advanced in the literature. This study complements that of Perron (1989), which considered time series with trends.