全文获取类型
收费全文 | 304篇 |
免费 | 6篇 |
专业分类
管理学 | 60篇 |
人口学 | 23篇 |
丛书文集 | 1篇 |
理论方法论 | 20篇 |
综合类 | 4篇 |
社会学 | 136篇 |
统计学 | 66篇 |
出版年
2023年 | 1篇 |
2021年 | 1篇 |
2020年 | 11篇 |
2019年 | 12篇 |
2018年 | 11篇 |
2017年 | 6篇 |
2016年 | 9篇 |
2015年 | 13篇 |
2014年 | 6篇 |
2013年 | 43篇 |
2012年 | 27篇 |
2011年 | 14篇 |
2010年 | 8篇 |
2009年 | 10篇 |
2008年 | 14篇 |
2007年 | 11篇 |
2006年 | 9篇 |
2005年 | 8篇 |
2004年 | 12篇 |
2003年 | 13篇 |
2002年 | 8篇 |
2001年 | 2篇 |
2000年 | 3篇 |
1999年 | 3篇 |
1998年 | 5篇 |
1997年 | 1篇 |
1996年 | 5篇 |
1995年 | 1篇 |
1994年 | 2篇 |
1993年 | 4篇 |
1992年 | 5篇 |
1991年 | 4篇 |
1990年 | 2篇 |
1989年 | 3篇 |
1988年 | 4篇 |
1987年 | 1篇 |
1985年 | 2篇 |
1982年 | 3篇 |
1981年 | 2篇 |
1980年 | 1篇 |
1979年 | 1篇 |
1978年 | 2篇 |
1977年 | 1篇 |
1974年 | 2篇 |
1972年 | 2篇 |
1969年 | 1篇 |
1965年 | 1篇 |
排序方式: 共有310条查询结果,搜索用时 46 毫秒
51.
Galateia Terti Isabelle Ruin Jonathan J. Gourley Pierre Kirstetter Zachary Flamig Juliette Blanchet Ami Arthur Sandrine Anquetin 《Risk analysis》2019,39(1):140-161
This article focuses on conceptual and methodological developments allowing the integration of physical and social dynamics leading to model forecasts of circumstance‐specific human losses during a flash flood. To reach this objective, a random forest classifier is applied to assess the likelihood of fatality occurrence for a given circumstance as a function of representative indicators. Here, vehicle‐related circumstance is chosen as the literature indicates that most fatalities from flash flooding fall in this category. A database of flash flood events, with and without human losses from 2001 to 2011 in the United States, is supplemented with other variables describing the storm event, the spatial distribution of the sensitive characteristics of the exposed population, and built environment at the county level. The catastrophic flash floods of May 2015 in the states of Texas and Oklahoma are used as a case study to map the dynamics of the estimated probabilistic human risk on a daily scale. The results indicate the importance of time‐ and space‐dependent human vulnerability and risk assessment for short‐fuse flood events. The need for more systematic human impact data collection is also highlighted to advance impact‐based predictive models for flash flood casualties using machine‐learning approaches in the future. 相似文献
52.
This paper proposes a new bootstrap procedure for mean‐squared errors of robust small‐area estimators. We formally prove the asymptotic validity of the proposed bootstrap method and examine its finite‐sample performance through Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that our procedure performs well and competes with existing ones. We also provide an application to the estimation of the total volume and value of cash, debit card, and credit card transactions in Canada as well as in its provinces and subgroups of households. In particular, we found that there is a significant average annual decline rate of 3.1% in the volume of cash transactions and that this decline is relatively higher among high‐income households living in heavily populated provinces. Our bootstrap estimator also provides indicators of quality useful in selecting the best small‐area predictor among several alternatives in practice. 相似文献
53.
Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas Jonathan A. Parker 《Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society》2002,70(1):47-89
This paper estimates a structural model of optimal life‐cycle consumption expenditures in the presence of realistic labor income uncertainty. We employ synthetic cohort techniques and Consumer Expenditure Survey data to construct average age‐profiles of consumption and income over the working lives of typical households across different education and occupation groups. The model fits the profiles quite well. In addition to providing reasonable estimates of the discount rate and risk aversion, we find that consumer behavior changes strikingly over the life cycle. Young consumers behave as buffer‐stock agents. Around age 40, the typical household starts accumulating liquid assets for retirement and its behavior mimics more closely that of a certainty equivalent consumer. Our methodology provides a natural decomposition of saving and wealth into its precautionary and life‐cycle components. 相似文献
54.
Mathieu Gagnon Pierre Gosselin Isabelle Hudon-ven der Buhs Karine Larocque Karine Milliard 《Journal of Nonverbal Behavior》2010,34(1):27-42
Facial expressions of fear and disgust have repeatedly been found to be less well recognized than those of other basic emotions
by children. We undertook two studies in which we investigated the recognition and visual discrimination of these expressions
in school-age children. In Study 1, children (5, 6, 9, and 10 years of age) were shown pairs of facial expressions, and asked
to tell which one depicted a target emotion. The results indicated that accuracy in 9- and 10-year-olds was higher than in
5- and 6-year-olds for three contrasts: disgust–anger, fear–surprise, and fear–sadness. Younger children had more difficulty
recognizing disgust when it was presented along with anger, and in recognizing fear when it was presented along with surprise.
In Study 2, children (5, 6, 9, and 10 years of age) were shown a target expression along with two other expressions, and were
asked to point to the expression that was the most similar to the target. Contrary to our expectations, even 5- and 6-year-olds
were very accurate in discriminating fear and disgust from the other emotions, suggesting that visual perception was not the
main limiting factor for the recognition of these emotions in school-age children. 相似文献
55.
Peter Steyn Esmail Salehi-Sangari Leyland Pitt Michael Parent Pierre Berthon 《Public Relations Review》2010
The Social Media Release (SMR) is emerging as a potentially powerful public relations tool in a world of social network media, particularly when targeted at influential bloggers. The research described here studies the factors that influence bloggers to use SMRs, using the Technology Acceptance Model as a theoretical framework, concentrating specifically on their perceptions of usefulness and ease of use. 相似文献
56.
Chantal Lavergne Dominique Damant Marie‐Ève Clément Chantal Bourassa Geneviève Lessard Pierre Turcotte 《Child & Family Social Work》2011,16(3):353-363
This paper looks at the response of the child protection services (CPS) system in cases where exposure to domestic violence occurs alone or together with abuse or neglect, focusing on the factors involved in decisions to maintain the case open for ongoing services or remove children from the home. The study is based on an analysis of clinical and administrative data from the files on children reported to a CPS agency in Montreal, Canada. A total of 1 071 substantiated reports were documented, including 337 cases of co‐occurrence (32%). Analysis of the data shows that domestic violence does not by itself constitute a factor liable to lead to more intrusive intervention. The CPS response appears to be influenced more by the existence of other forms of maltreatment and risk factors. Additionally, while domestic violence may be associated with more severe individual and family problems, it does not influence the decision to keep the case open because the child still need services. The lack of any connection between domestic violence and this decision is a cause for concern, as results indicate that such families need help. Knowing how to respond to their needs therefore remains a major challenge. 相似文献
57.
We consider circular block designs for field-trials when there are two-sided spatial interference between neighbouring plots of the same blocks. The parameter of interest is total effects that is the sum of direct effect of treatment and neighbour effects, which correspond to the use of a single treatment in the whole field. We determine universally optimal approximate designs. When the number of blocks may be large, we propose efficient exact designs generated by a single sequence of treatment. We also give efficiency factors of the usual binary block neighbour balanced designs which can be used when the number of blocks is small. 相似文献
58.
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a popular approach to address inference problems where the likelihood function is intractable, or expensive to calculate. To improve over Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) implementations of ABC, the use of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods has recently been suggested. Most effective SMC algorithms that are currently available for ABC have a computational complexity that is quadratic in the number of Monte Carlo samples (Beaumont et al., Biometrika 86:983?C990, 2009; Peters et al., Technical report, 2008; Toni et al., J.?Roy. Soc. Interface 6:187?C202, 2009) and require the careful choice of simulation parameters. In this article an adaptive SMC algorithm is proposed which admits a computational complexity that is linear in the number of samples and adaptively determines the simulation parameters. We demonstrate our algorithm on a toy example and on a birth-death-mutation model arising in epidemiology. 相似文献
59.
Pierre Monforte 《Social movement studies》2013,12(4):409-425
This paper seeks to analyse the process of Europeanization of social movements mobilizing around the asylum policy since the middle of the 1990s. Taking the example of the principal French associations which have mobilized on this topic, the paper explores the dynamics that lead these associations to increasingly address the European institutions since the launching of the process of harmonisation of asylum policies. In particular, it shows that particular attention shall be given to the relationship between the associations that have constituted at the national level and the set of actors that are mobilized on this issue exclusively at the European level (which is defined as a European advocacy coalition). Through the analysis of this relationship, it can be seen that the French associations follow different processes of Europeanization. Some follow a process of inclusion into the existing European advocacy coalition while others create alternative mobilizations at the European level. This study allows us to observe and to analyse the similarities and differences in the interactions between social movements and institutions in the national political space and in the European political space on this particular issue. In doing so, it seeks to present an original perspective on a process of ‘Europeanization from below’. This research is based on the in-depth analysis of 11 associations which are representative of the diversity of the movement related to the asylum issue in France. It uses different methods that were developed in social movements studies: frame analysis, protest-event analysis and network analysis. It is based on several sources: associative discourses and publications, in-depth interviews, and associative internal literature. 相似文献
60.