Diagnostic checks for discrete data regression models using posterior predictive simulations

Model checking with discrete data regressions can be difficult because the usual methods such as residual plots have complicated reference distributions that depend on the parameters in the model. Posterior predictive checks have been proposed as a Bayesian way to average the results of goodness-of-fit tests in the presence of uncertainty in estimation of the parameters. We try this approach using a variety of discrepancy variables for generalized linear models fitted to a historical data set on behavioural learning. We then discuss the general applicability of our findings in the context of a recent applied example on which we have worked. We find that the following discrepancy variables work well, in the sense of being easy to interpret and sensitive to important model failures: structured displays of the entire data set, general discrepancy variables based on plots of binned or smoothed residuals versus predictors and specific discrepancy variables created on the basis of the particular concerns arising in an application. Plots of binned residuals are especially easy to use because their predictive distributions under the model are sufficiently simple that model checks can often be made implicitly. The following discrepancy variables did not work well: scatterplots of latent residuals defined from an underlying continuous model and quantile–quantile plots of these residuals.     

Simultaneous Confidence Intervals for the Difference of Two Survival Functions

In comparing two treatments with failure time observations, confidence bands for the "difference" of two survival curves provide useful information about a global picture of the treatment difference over time. In this note, we propose a rather simple procedure for constructing such simultaneous confidence intervals. Our technique can also be used in the one-sample case, which has been extensively studied in the literature.     

Rényi statistics for testing hypotheses in mixed linear regression models

Rényi divergences are used to propose some statistics for testing general hypotheses in mixed linear regression models. The asymptotic distribution of these tests statistics, of the Kullback–Leibler and of the likelihood ratio statistics are provided, assuming that the sample size and the number of levels of the random factors tend to infinity. A simulation study is carried out to analyze and compare the behavior of the proposed tests when the sample size and number of levels are small.     

Putting the First Audience First: Conducting Useful Evaluation for a Risk-Related Government Agency

The risk communication practitioner in a government agency has two essential, interdependent tasks. One is to help develop and monitor effective communication programs with various external public audiences. The other task is to do the same thing for the senior government managers whose support is a prerequisite to addressing the first audience. Hence, the second audience–the manager–is really the first. This paper addresses ways in which communication practitioners can satisfy this crucial audience. A profile of these managers suggests that they would find it highly beneficial to have more control over the public problems they encounter, especially in view of the growing pressures to do more with less and demonstrate "customer satisfaction." They would rather avoid crises than manage them. And they would rather have their bosses praise their successes than challenge their budgets or punish their perceived difficulties or failures. Communication practitioners who can help them attain such benefits will find their efforts in great demand. They would be helpful team members who provide timely insights that can make and show agency success. We offer ten ways for communication practitioners to be more useful which focus their current strengths on satisfying senior managers'needs by becoming more valuable members of the program team. By becoming more useful to the senior manager they serve both the agency and its publics.     

Associations among altruism, burnout dimensions, and organizational citizenship behaviour

Most studies of burnout have focused on lack of resources, prevalence of burnout, and negative outcomes. In contrast, this study examined the relationships among altruism, burnout and a positive outcome, namely, the engagement in organizational citizenship behaviour. Web questionnaires were distributed to employees in three professional organizations. The results from the 178 respondents indicated that altruism is related to organizational citizenship behaviour. Of the three dimensions of burnout, only reduced personal accomplishment was (negatively) associated with engagement in organizational citizenship behaviours. Implications of the results are discussed and directions for future research are offered.     

Statistical inference for olfactometer data

Summary.  Olfactometer experiments are used to determine the effect of odours on the behaviour of organisms such as insects or nematodes, and typically result in data comprising many groups of small overdispersed counts. We develop a non-homogeneous Markov chain model for data from olfactometer experiments with parasitoid wasps and discuss a relation with the Dirichlet–multinomial distribution. We consider the asymptotic relative efficiencies of three different observation schemes and give an analysis of data intended to shed light on the effect of previous experience of odours in the wasps.     

Ethics of care and social policy

Care work is to a high degree equivalent with female work and has not, to any great extent, been of interest to traditional social sciences. Women's studies has however changed this, and today there is a broad academic discussion about care work as well as about the concept of care itself. This article reviews this discussion; the concepts of care and ethics are linked and given feminine content. With reference to studies within the authors' research programme: "Care for the elderly: conditions and everyday realities", results are then reviewed that show how organizational, political and ideological relationships affect the content and quality of care. Finally, European social policy trends and the consequences of new systems of paying for care are discussed from a gender perspective. The authors warn against a context-free coupling between women and an ethic of care, and show how neoliberal politics can use feminist "struggle concepts" to put women "back in their place".     

Follow-up of male pathological gamblers after treatment: The relationship of intellectual variables to relapse

Male pathological gamblers entering a comprehensive treatment program were followed-up for twelve months after treatment completion. Twelve month follow-up was obtained for 45 of the 66 patients entering treatment. Total abstinence was reported by 55% (n=25) of the patients located for twelve month follow-up. A relationship was found between abstinence at six month follow-up and selected subscales of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale, performance scale. The implications of these findings for sub-typing gamblers are discussed.     

The borda and condorcet principles: Three medieval applications

We report three medieval works, hitherto unknown to social choice, which discuss procedures for elections when there are more than two candidates. Two of the three propose Borda methods and the third a Condorcet method of successive pairwise comparison. All three discuss problems of manipulation. One of them displays a matrix for pairwise comparisons; this is a work written in 1299, nearly 600 years before the matrix notation was believed to have been invented by C. L. Dodgson. We conclude with a review of the theory of voting in medieval Europe.We acknowledge with gratitude the support of the Leverhulme Trust for IMcL's work on the history of social choice; William Riker for an initial lead on Nicolas Cusanus; Alexander Murray for translating Cusanus and reviewing IMcL's translation of Lull's Latin text; and Robert Pring-Mill for reviewing JL's translation of Lull's Catalan text.