Higher Moments and Prediction‐Based Estimation for the COGARCH(1,1) Model

COGARCH models are continuous time versions of the well‐known GARCH models of financial returns. The first aim of this paper is to show how the method of prediction‐based estimating functions can be applied to draw statistical inference from observations of a COGARCH(1,1) model if the higher‐order structure of the process is clarified. A second aim of the paper is to provide recursive expressions for the joint moments of any fixed order of the process. Asymptotic results are given, and a simulation study shows that the method of prediction‐based estimating function outperforms the other available estimation methods.     

Firth adjusted score function for monotone likelihood in the mixture cure fraction model

Lifetime Data Analysis - Models for situations where some individuals are long-term survivors, immune or non-susceptible to the event of interest, are extensively studied in biomedical research....     

Binge drinking vs. drunkenness. The questionable threshold of excess for young Italians

The use of a standard definition of ‘binge drinking’ can potentially offer the advantage of ‘objectifying’ the concept of excessive drinking. Nevertheless, the term has become somewhat confusing, as it is often used as a synonym of drunkenness, making cross-cultural comparison difficult. The present study investigates the meaning Italian young people attribute to binge drinking, to explain the gap between self-reported rates of drunkenness and episodes of binge drinking found by comparative youth drinking surveys. About 134 face-to-face semi-structured interviews were conducted, targeting adolescents (aged 15–17) and young adults (aged 22–24) who had admitted to drinking excessively. In addition, an online forum was created, using a video clip as a stimulus and asking for web users' comments (132 were analysed). Results show how in the view of Italian bingers, binge drinking does not necessarily entail drunkenness, but only being tipsy. This is what they aim at when they drink, while they have negative attitudes and expectations regarding intoxication and its effects. This boundary establishes the concept of excess and marks the threshold between socially acceptable and unacceptable drinking. In conclusion, the concept of binge drinking cannot be used as a synonym of drunkenness, which young people in Italy judge severely.     

Managerial and professional beliefs influencing public health privatization: results of a national survey of local health department directors

This article describes managerial and professional beliefs underlying decisions to privatize public health services. We drew a stratified, nationally representative sample of local health departments and interviewed 347 department directors by telephone. We used logistic regression to establish the independent effects of various beliefs on the decision to privatize. Over half of directors did not believe that there was valid evidence that privatization results in more efficient performance, and those who believed there was such evidence were not more likely to privatize. However, directors held professional and managerial beliefs that influenced their decision to privatize. Directors most likely to privatize were those who believed that local health departments should exclusively focus on the core public health functions, those who asserted that public health should become involved in an increasingly diverse array of social problems, and those who believed that employees should be used on a temporary and contractual, rather than permanent, basis wherever possible.     

Development and Governance in the Ex-Soviet Union: An Empirical Inquiry

The widespread adoption of the concept of wellbeing in the social sciences literature has allowed researchers to move beyond a narrow economic focus on income and consumption as the primary measure of inequality and poverty. Although statistical measurement and analyses of wellbeing have become increasingly feasible due to the availability of rich datasets, the empirical literature on wellbeing remains deficient in a number of ways. In this paper we argue that it is necessary that empirical studies of wellbeing encompass multiple. Applying Sen’s capability approach as our theoretical model we subsequently develop a modelling framework that applies the polychoric principal component analysis (PCA) method for the calculation of objective wellbeing and wellbeing inequality using household asset, education, health and housing dimensions. Findings from our case study of Vietnam challenge previous single dimensional analyses and reveal a number of layers to our understanding of wellbeing inequality in Vietnam. We argue that our use of polychoric PCA is especially suited to the analysis of wellbeing by explicitly incorporating the analysis of both cardinal and ordinal variables and overcoming deficiencies established in the literature relating to the use of standard PCA.

     

An Unbalance Adjustment Method for Development Indicators

This paper analyzes some aggregation aspects of the procedure for constructing a composite index on a multidimensional socio-economic phenomenon such as development, the main focus being on the unbalance among individual dimensions. First a theoretical framework is set up for the unbalance adjustment of the index. Then an aggregation function is proposed that takes unbalance among development dimensions into account; a separate index is also introduced that measures the unbalance itself. Finally the dataset of the Index of African Governance for the year 2007 is used to test this method and compare it against the weighted arithmetic mean of variables with relation to the measured values of unbalance, yielding significantly different results for ratings and rankings, which in addition show negative correlations with the unbalance adjustment values. The changes ensuing from the adjustment are commented for some countries.     

Concerns,Challenges, and Directions of Development for the Issue of Representing Uncertainty in Risk Assessment

In the analysis of the risk associated to rare events that may lead to catastrophic consequences with large uncertainty, it is questionable that the knowledge and information available for the analysis can be reflected properly by probabilities. Approaches other than purely probabilistic have been suggested, for example, using interval probabilities, possibilistic measures, or qualitative methods. In this article, we look into the problem and identify a number of issues that are foundational for its treatment. The foundational issues addressed reflect on the position that “probability is perfect” and take into open consideration the need for an extended framework for risk assessment that reflects the separation that practically exists between analyst and decisionmaker.     

Buying into the American Dream? Mexican Immigrants,Legal Status,and Homeownership in Los Angeles County*

Objectives. Contemporary patterns of homeownership reflect the continuing racial and ethnic stratification that exists in nearly all areas of American society. Of particular interest, especially within the context of recent immigration legislation, are the homeownership experiences of Mexican immigrants in the United States. Methods. The current study employs unique data from the 2001 Los Angeles County Mexican Immigrant Residency Status Survey (LAC‐MIRSS) to examine the association between diverse forms of legal status and homeownership for Mexican immigrants. Results. Analyses indicate that the relationship between legal status and housing tenure is not statistically significant, after accounting for economic, life‐course/life‐cycle, and assimilation/social capital characteristics. Conclusions. The lack of a significant relationship is contrary to past research, perhaps explained by the explosive growth of the subprime mortgage market in the United States; the increasing recognition by financial institutions of Latino immigrants as a largely untapped, yet emerging, market in the mortgage industry; the availability of alternative forms of identification; and the institutionalization of unauthorized immigration in Los Angeles.     

Māori experiences of multiple forms of discrimination: findings from Te Kupenga 2013

ABSTRACT

Comprehensive exploration of Māori experiences of discrimination in Aotearoa New Zealand remains limited, particularly in relation to exposure to multiple and interlocking forms of discrimination. This paper presents findings from a secondary analysis of Te Kupenga 2013, the first Māori Social Survey, examining patterning and prevalence of different forms of discrimination for Māori (n?=?5,549). Māori report experiencing multiple forms of discrimination, both over their lifetimes and within the last year. Although racial discrimination was the most commonly reported form, Māori also experience discrimination on the basis of other grounds including age, gender, and income. Māori also report exposure to multiple forms of discrimination. Discrimination occurred in a range of settings, with schools and workplaces common sites. The findings support the lived reality of Māori that racial and other forms of discrimination are pervasive, and experienced in multiple domains across the life course, representing a persistent breach of rights. It is critical that other forms of discrimination are measured alongside racism in order to understand and address the realities of multiple discrimination for Māori in Aotearoa New Zealand.     

A RETROSPECTIVE STUDY ON THE INFLUENCE OF A STATE PARK-LAKE ON LAND VALUE,FROM THE TIME OF LAND ACQUISITION TO RESERVOIR FILLING

A new multiple purpose park-lake facility is being developed in the sub urbanrural fringe of the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania metropolitan region. This study assesses the impact of the new park-lake upon surrounding land values in order to provide information for improved planning and decision making in such a context. The investigation covers the period from the time of land acquisition to that of near-completion of dam construction. The results of the study provide a “baseline” from which it will later be possible to assess changes in land values as the park-lake becomes fully operational as a major public recreational facility. Two geographic zones of impact on surrounding land value are identified by the analysis, and variations in the impact of the park-lake over time are identified. The importance of these new findings to public organizations involved in recreational decision making is discussed and areas for future research are suggested.