Estimating Probability Distributions by Observing Betting Practices

A bookmaker takes bets on a two-horse race, attempting to minimize expected loss over all possible outcomes of the race. Profits are controlled by manipulation of customer' betting behavior; in order to do this, we need some information about the probability distribution which describes how the customers will bet. We examine what information initial customer' betting behavior provides about this probability distribution, and consider how to use this to estimate the probability distribution for remaining customers.     

Explaining life course and cohort variation in the relationship between education and health: the role of income

Researchers have attempted to explain the relationship between education and health by incorporating mediators-such as income--through which schooling affects health. Research has also shown that the education-health relationship varies across age and cohort. This article integrates these themes in an investigation of the role income plays in the changing relationship between education and health. Using data from the 1972-2001 National Health Interview Surveys, I find that the direct relationship between education and health is weakening across cohorts, while the indirect effect of education through income is strengthening across cohorts. Cohort change in this indirect effect is equally attributable to change in the relationships between education and income and between income and health. Life course differences in direct and indirect relationships vary in shape, suggesting that a substantive explanation---one that does not rely solely on selective mortality--is warranted. The results suggest that future research should continue to employ a life course framework.     

Immediate Memory for Mismatched Speech and Representational Gesture Across Development

Two experiments examined how 7- and 8-year-old children, 9- and 10-year-old children, and adults process mismatched, task-related speech and gesture differently as a function of development. Participants watched videotapes of children speaking and gesturing about the concept of conservation. Using a recognition paradigm, we assessed immediate memory for information conveyed in mismatched speech and gesture. In Experiment 1, we used recognition of verbal statements to probe participants' memory, whereas in Experiment 2, we used recognition of gestural statements to probe memory. When probed with verbal statements in Experiment 1, 9- and 10-year-old children failed to retrieve gestured information. When probed with gestural statements in Experiment 2, 9- and 10-year-old children failed to retrieve verbal information. In contrast, the younger children and adults showed retrieval of both verbal and gestural information across both recognition methods in Experiments 1 and 2. These results suggest a U-shaped function with the 9- and 10-year-old children showing a limitation in the ability to process contradictory messages simultaneously conveyed in two modalities. Implications for identifying a transitional period in the development of representational skills are discussed.     

Moving from ‘what we know works’ to ‘what we do in practice’: An evidence overview of implementation and diffusion of innovation in transition to adulthood for care experienced young people

Global research has shown that most young people who are care experienced are not prepared to transition to independent living at 18 years of age and require support into early adulthood. We used rigorous systematic methods to identify English-based peer reviewed and grey literature describing innovations relevant to care experienced young people as they transition into adulthood, with a focus upon lessons for their implementation and diffusion. We synthesised the evidence narratively and organise data linked to seven key areas important to the transition to adulthood: (1) Health and well-being; (2) relationships; (3) education and training; (4) employment; (5) participation in society; (6) accommodation; (7) other. Twenty-five papers met our inclusion criteria. This review has found that, whilst there are a broad spectrum of innovations taking place within the social care environment for care experienced young people to support their transition into adulthood, there exists limited insight into how best to support implementation and diffusion of evidence-based innovation. We drew upon the ‘Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research’, developed in the setting of clinical service delivery, to highlight challenges in implementing and diffusing evidence-based innovation for care experienced young people transitioning into adulthood.