Modelling a disease-relevant contact network of people who inject drugs

This study uses social network analysis to model a contact network of people who inject drugs (PWID) relevant for investigating the spread of an infectious disease (hepatitis C). Using snowball sample data, parameters for an exponential random graph model (ERGM) including social circuit dependence and four attributes (location, age, injecting frequency, gender) are estimated using a conditional estimation approach that respects the structure of snowball sample designs. Those network parameter estimates are then used to create a novel, model-dependent estimate of network size. Simulated PWID contact networks are created and compared with Bernoulli graphs. Location, age and injecting frequency are shown to be statistically significant attribute parameters in the ERGM. Simulated ERGM networks are shown to fit the collected data very well across a number of metrics. In comparison with Bernoulli graphs, simulated networks are shown to have longer paths and more clustering. Results from this study make possible simulation of realistic networks for investigating treatment and intervention strategies for reducing hepatitis C prevalence.     

Bayesian analysis for partially observed network data,missing ties,attributes and actors

We consider partially observed network data as defined in Handcock and Gile (2010). More specifically we introduce an elaboration of the Bayesian data augmentation scheme of Koskinen et al. (2010) that uses the exchange algorithm (Caimo and Friel, 2011) for inference for the exponential random graph model (ERGM) where tie variables are partly observed. We illustrate the generating of posteriors and unobserved tie-variables with empirical network data where 74% of the tie variables are unobserved under the assumption that some standard assumptions hold true. One of these assumptions is that covariates are fixed and completely observed. A likely scenario is that also covariates might only be partially observed and we propose a further extension of the data augmentation algorithm for missing attributes. We provide an illustrative example of parameter inference with nearly 30% of dyads affected by missing attributes (e.g. homophily effects). The assumption that all actors are known is another assumption that is liable to be violated so that there are “covert actors”. We briefly discuss various aspects of this problem with reference to the Sageman (2004) data set on suspected terrorists. We conclude by identifying some areas in need of further research.     

Networks and geography: Modelling community network structures as the outcome of both spatial and network processes

This paper focuses on how to extend the exponential random graph models to take into account the geographical embeddedness of individuals in modelling social networks. We develop a hierarchical set of nested models for spatially embedded social networks, in which, following Butts (2002), an interaction function between tie probability and Euclidean distance between nodes is introduced. The models are illustrated by an empirical example from a study of the role of social networks in understanding spatial clustering in unemployment in Australia. The analysis suggests that a spatial effect cannot solely explain the emergence of organised network structure and it is necessary to include both spatial and endogenous network effects in the model.     

“Trust Me”: Differences in expressed and perceived trust relations in an organization

The possibility of resolving the tension between trust as a psychological condition and trust as a general organizing principle depends on assumptions about the convergence of expressed and perceived trust relations. In empirical organizational research these assumptions are frequently left implicit and only rarely modeled directly. Using data that we have collected on trust relations within the top management team of a multiunit industrial group we specify and estimate multivariate exponential random graph models (ERGMs) that reveal important differences in the structural logics underlying networks of expressed and perceived trust relations. Results confirm that trust induces awareness and produces expectations of reciprocity – features that are consistent with the view of trust as a general organizing principle. Results also show that networks of perceived trust relations are characterized by tendencies toward reciprocity and generalized giving of trust. When multivariate network effects are introduced, however, expressed trust relations no longer show a significant tendency toward reciprocation. Interpreted together these results suggest that: (i) the distribution of expressed and perceived trust relations differs; (ii) expressed trust relations in organizations are more hierarchical than are perceived trust relations, and (iii) expressed and perceived trust relations need to be modeled jointly. These findings suggest caution in the adoption and interpretation of trust only as a general organizing principle, and suggest that psychological mechanisms also play an important role in the making and breaking of trust relations within organizations.     

Pregnancy,work and women's well-being: A review

Abstract

Pregnancy is potentially a stressful period for working women for ergonomic, psychological and organizational reasons, yet the well-being of women is seldom the focus of research on working during pregnancy. This paper reviews the literature on women's experience of being pregnant at work. It concludes that, while working conditions are usually not well suited to pregnant women, the majority of women encounter only minor difficulties and regard working in a positive way. However, for a minority of women working during pregnancy adversely affects their well-being. These are likely to be women working during pregnancy adversely affects their well-being. These are likely to be women who are most at risk from work-related stress at other times. The literature suggests that working during pregnancy has still to be accepted and accommodated by employers and colleagues.     

An introduction to exponential random graph (p) models for social networks

This article provides an introductory summary to the formulation and application of exponential random graph models for social networks. The possible ties among nodes of a network are regarded as random variables, and assumptions about dependencies among these random tie variables determine the general form of the exponential random graph model for the network. Examples of different dependence assumptions and their associated models are given, including Bernoulli, dyad-independent and Markov random graph models. The incorporation of actor attributes in social selection models is also reviewed. Newer, more complex dependence assumptions are briefly outlined. Estimation procedures are discussed, including new methods for Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimation. We foreshadow the discussion taken up in other papers in this special edition: that the homogeneous Markov random graph models of Frank and Strauss [Frank, O., Strauss, D., 1986. Markov graphs. Journal of the American Statistical Association 81, 832–842] are not appropriate for many observed networks, whereas the new model specifications of Snijders et al. [Snijders, T.A.B., Pattison, P., Robins, G.L., Handock, M. New specifications for exponential random graph models. Sociological Methodology, in press] offer substantial improvement.     

Recent developments in exponential random graph (p*) models for social networks

This article reviews new specifications for exponential random graph models proposed by Snijders et al. [Snijders, T.A.B., Pattison, P., Robins, G.L., Handcock, M., 2006. New specifications for exponential random graph models. Sociological Methodology] and demonstrates their improvement over homogeneous Markov random graph models in fitting empirical network data. Not only do the new specifications show improvements in goodness of fit for various data sets, but they also help to avoid the problem of near-degeneracy that often afflicts the fitting of Markov random graph models in practice, particularly to network data exhibiting high levels of transitivity. The inclusion of a new higher order transitivity statistic allows estimation of parameters of exponential graph models for many (but not all) cases where it is impossible to estimate parameters of homogeneous Markov graph models. The new specifications were used to model a large number of classical small-scale network data sets and showed a dramatically better performance than Markov graph models. We also review three current programs for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters and we compare these Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimates with less accurate pseudo-likelihood estimates. Finally, we discuss whether homogeneous Markov random graph models may be superseded by the new specifications, and how additional elaborations may further improve model performance.     

NEW SPECIFICATIONS FOR EXPONENTIAL RANDOM GRAPH MODELS

The most promising class of statistical models for expressing structural properties of social networks observed at one moment in time is the class of exponential random graph models (ERGMs), also known as p * models. The strong point of these models is that they can represent a variety of structural tendencies, such as transitivity, that define complicated dependence patterns not easily modeled by more basic probability models. Recently, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have been developed that produce approximate maximum likelihood estimators. Applying these models in their traditional specification to observed network data often has led to problems, however, which can be traced back to the fact that important parts of the parameter space correspond to nearly degenerate distributions, which may lead to convergence problems of estimation algorithms, and a poor fit to empirical data.
This paper proposes new specifications of exponential random graph models. These specifications represent structural properties such as transitivity and heterogeneity of degrees by more complicated graph statistics than the traditional star and triangle counts. Three kinds of statistics are proposed: geometrically weighted degree distributions, alternating k -triangles, and alternating independent two-paths. Examples are presented both of modeling graphs and digraphs, in which the new specifications lead to much better results than the earlier existing specifications of the ERGM. It is concluded that the new specifications increase the range and applicability of the ERGM as a tool for the statistical analysis of social networks.