Understanding exponential smoothing via kernel regression

Exponential smoothing is the most common model-free means of forecasting a future realization of a time series. It requires the specification of a smoothing factor which is usually chosen from the data to minimize the average squared residual of previous one-step-ahead forecasts. In this paper we show that exponential smoothing can be put into a nonparametric regression framework and gain some interesting insights into its performance through this interpretation. We also use theoretical developments from the kernel regression field to derive, for the first time, asymptotic properties of exponential smoothing forecasters.     

Review of educational interventions to increase traditional birth attendants’ neonatal resuscitation self-efficacy

Background

Annually, up to 2.7 million neonatal deaths occur worldwide, and 25% of these deaths are caused by birth asphyxia. Infants born in rural areas of low-and-middle-income countries are often delivered by traditional birth attendants and have a greater risk of birth asphyxia-related mortality.

OWN‐NATIONALITY BIAS: EVIDENCE FROM UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FOOTBALL REFEREES

We examine the existence and magnitude of own‐nationality bias. Using player‐match level data from 12 seasons of the UEFA Champions League (UCL) and referee assignment policies that pair players and referees from the same country, we determine the bias that referees exhibit toward players from their native country. Players officiated by a referee from the same country receive a 10% increase in beneficial foul calls. Referees' own‐nationality bias is more pronounced for national team players, players at home, and in later stages of the tournament. Elite referees exhibit as much, or more, own‐nationality bias as their less experienced counterparts. (JEL L83, J15)     

Aging male symptomatology and eating behavior

Objective: The literature on eating disorders in older males is still very limited. We assessed the relationship between aging male symptomatology and eating behavior in middle-aged and older men.

Method: We distributed anonymous questionnaires to men aged 40–75?years living in or near Innsbruck, Austria, covering demographic items, current eating disorder symptoms (as defined by DSM-5), and associated measures of eating pathology, body image, and sports activity (including exercise addiction). We also administered the Aging Males’ Symptoms scale (AMS), and classified respondents as “high-AMS” (AMS score ≥37; N?=?82) or “low-AMS” (AMS score <37; N?=?386).

Results: High-AMS men reported a significantly higher mean current BMI, a greater prevalence of eating disorder symptoms, higher scores on the Eating Disorder Examination Questionnaire, greater risk of exercise addiction, and more negative body image than low-AMS men.

Discussion: We found a marked association between aging-male symptomatology and eating-disorder symptomatology in aging men. Our findings suggest that clinicians should carefully inquire about eating disorder symptoms in men aged 40 and above reporting aging-male symptomatology. Importantly, several men in the study reported “purging” via excessive exercise (as opposed to the more common methods of vomiting or use of laxatives or diuretics), and therefore this should be a subject of inquiry in clinical evaluations. To pursue these findings, subsequent studies of eating disorders in older men should consider assessing endocrinological measures, particularly testosterone levels, and should use longitudinal designs.     

A Longitudinal Study of the Developmental Trajectories of Parental Attachment and Career Maturity of South Korean Adolescents

This study tested the developmental trajectories of career maturity (CM) and parental attachment (PA), the longitudinal influence of both, and gender as a moderator. Findings showed developmental progressions in adolescents’ PA and CM over 4 years. The change in PA was positively related to the developmental change in CM. For gender, there was a statistically significant difference in the initial status of CM and PA but no significant difference in developmental change. This study verified the longitudinal influence of PA on CM and showed that the cross‐sectional effect of predictors on CM needs to be distinguished from the longitudinal effect in future studies.     

Adjusting to natural disasters

People adjust to the risks presented by natural disasters in a number of ways; they can move out of harms way, they can self protect, or they can insure. This paper uses Hurricane Andrew, the largest U.S. natural disaster prior to Katrina, to evaluate how people and housing markets respond to a large disaster. Our analysis combines a unique ex post database on the storm’s damage along with information from the 1990 and 2000 Censuses in Dade County, Florida where the storm hit. The results suggest that the economic capacity of households to adjust explains most of the differences in demographic groups’ patterns of adjustment to the hurricane damage. Low income households respond primarily by moving into low-rent housing in areas that experienced heavy damage. Middle income households move away to avoid risk, and the wealthy, for whom insurance and self-protection are most affordable, appear to remain. This pattern of adjustment with respect to income is roughly mean neutral, so an analysis based on measures of central tendency such as median income would miss these important adjustments.     

Washington report: abortion battle

Mobilization of the proabortion forces is necessary to counter the strongarm tactics of the Right-to-Life groups and to provide a reason for Congress not to bow to antiabortion pressure. Action is necessary in the following areas: 1) maintaining the support of the major non-Catholic religious groups, 2) limiting the application of the Church 'right of conscience' amendment, and 3) preventing antiabortion and antibussing forces from joining together to call state constitutional conventions.     

Evidence-based practice knowledge and utilization among social workers

In this study the researchers examined the knowledge, skills, and use of Evidence-Based Practice in a sample of social workers from different practice settings. Using an electronic survey, data were collected from a group of social work practitioners (N = 200). Participants in their 30s and 40s demonstrated the most knowledge and use of Evidence-Based Practice. In addition, a high percentage of social workers reported to be knowledgeable about social work research databases; a smaller percentage actually used online resources in their practice. Through this study the researchers add to what is currently known about social workers' perceptions, knowledge, and use of Evidence-Based Practice.