Measuring ambiguity attitude: (Extended) multiplier preferences for the American and the Dutch population

Empirical studies of ambiguity aversion often use measures that are not grounded in theory. This paper shows how a theoretically-founded measure of ambiguity aversion can be derived from Hansen and Sargent’s theory of multiplier preferences. Multiplier preferences are used in macroeconomics to capture model uncertainty. At the micro level, they have not been applied yet, because they do not permit ambiguity seeking, which is usually observed for a substantial proportion of subjects. We give a preference foundation for (extended) multiplier preferences accommodating both ambiguity aversion and ambiguity seeking and we propose a simple method to measure them using matching probabilities. We illustrate our method in two large representative samples (Dutch and American) and obtain the first micro estimates of multiplier preferences.     

Early Childhood Education Centre Director Perceptions of Challenging Behaviour: Promising Practices and Implications for Professional Development

Given their key role in overall programme quality, it is critical to examine how early childhood programme centre directors in the United States perceive challenging behaviour. Participants completed a survey asking which behaviours they perceive to be most problematic, the number of children dismissed or expelled from the programme during the last year, and the most commonly used strategies for addressing challenging behaviours. Results point to several promising practices and highlight the variability in access to evidence‐based practices based on programme type. Areas that warrant more targeted professional development are discussed, and findings are situated within the larger early childhood context.     

A New Model of Trend Inflation

This article introduces a new model of trend inflation. In contrast to many earlier approaches, which allow for trend inflation to evolve according to a random walk, ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend inflation is constrained to lie in an interval. The bounds of this interval can either be fixed or estimated from the data. Our model also allows for a time-varying degree of persistence in the transitory component of inflation. In an empirical exercise with CPI inflation, we find the model to work well, yielding more sensible measures of trend inflation and forecasting better than popular alternatives such as the unobserved components stochastic volatility model. This article has supplementary materials online.     

Residential and Racial Mortality Differentials in the South by Cause of Death1

Abstract Mortality levels and differences by metropolitan-nonmetropolitan residence for blacks and whites are examined in the South using life-table techniques. Life tables are constructed for Southern subpopulations using U.S. vital statistics and census data for 1980, and differences in the life expectancies are decomposed by cause of death. Results suggest that life expectancy is higher for metropolitan and white populations. Racial mortality differences are slightly greater in metropolitan areas of the South when compared to the nonmetropolitan South. Residential mortality differences are attributable mainly to differences in the effects of heart disease and accidents. Most of the racial mortality difference is due to differences in effects of malignant neoplasms, cardiovascular disease, perinatal conditions, and homicide. Policy efforts aimed at specific causes of death in specific populations are suggested as a means of reducing racial or residential life expectancy differentials.     

Application of life table techniques to measurement of contraceptive effectiveness

Two problems are associated with the analysis of use-effectiveness of contraception. First, couples belonging to a sample of contraceptors typically vary in their monthly chances of contraceptive failure. Second, one does not observe for many, and perhaps a majority of the couples, how long they can remain protected with the contraceptive, because either they are stopping contraception to plan a pregnancy or else observation of them is being interrrupted by lost contact, by discontinuation of contraception for other reasons, or by the end of the study. It is argued that because of these two problems-namely, sample heterogeneity and incomplete histories-the Pearl pregnancy rate, which has been traditionally used to measure contraceptive effectiveness, is inadequate.A life table method is described that permits one to combine incomplete histories with complete ones for purposes of estimating the proportions of the sample that might have remained protected for specified periods if all members had remained under observation for these periods. The versatility of the techniques is illustrated in relation toa retrospective survey. A detailed account of procedure is given. Finally, it is shown that only under specialized conditions that are rarely met in practice is it possible to estimate the results of the new technique from knowledge of Pearl pregnancy rates alone.     

Frequency of Selecting Noise Variables in Subset Regression Analysis: A Simulation Study

This article presents the results of a simulation study of variable selection in a multiple regression context that evaluates the frequency of selecting noise variables and the bias of the adjusted R ² of the selected variables when some of the candidate variables are authentic. It is demonstrated that for most samples a large percentage of the selected variables is noise, particularly when the number of candidate variables is large relative to the number of observations. The adjusted R ² of the selected variables is highly inflated.     

Some Additional Considerations of Protocol Analyses

The Analysis of Verbal Behavior -     

Psychosocial Well‐Being and the Relationship Between Divorce and Children's Academic Achievement

As an unprecedented number of children live in families experiencing divorce, researchers have developed increasingly complex explanations for the consequences associated with marital dissolution. Current accounts focus on changes to family finances, destabilized parenting practices, elevated parental conflict, and deterioration of the parent–child relationship, to explain the impact of divorce. A less studied explanation draws attention to children's diminished psychosocial well‐being following divorce. Using data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study—Kindergarten cohort (ECLS‐K) (N = 10,061), I examined the role of psychosocial well‐being in the relationship between divorce and children's outcomes. The results suggest that divorce is associated with diminished psychosocial well‐being in children, and that this decrease helps explain the connection between divorce and lower academic achievement.     

Evaluation of an Innovative Tool for Child Sexual Abuse Education

Child sexual abuse poses a serious threat to public health and is often unreported, unrecognized, and untreated. Prevention, early recognition, and treatment are critically important to reduce long-term effects. Little data are available on effective methods of preventing child sexual abuse. The current research demonstrates a unique approach to promoting awareness and stimulating discussion about child sexual abuse. Qualitative methods have rarely been used to study child sexual abuse prevention. Qualitative inductive analyses of interviews from 20 key informants identified both positive and negative assessments with six emergent themes. The themes revealed inherent tensions in using narrative accounts to represent the complex cultural context within which child sexual abuse occurs. More research is needed, but the program shows potential as a methodology to raise awareness of child sexual abuse.