Understanding U.S. fertility: findings from the National Survey of Family Growth,Cycle III

The 1st overview of findings from Cycle III of the National Survey of Family Growth, the latest of 7 such surveys of US fertility since 1955 and the 1st to cover all women of childbearing age in the conterminous US is presented. Interviews between August 1982 and February 1983 with 7969 women, representative of 54 million women aged 15-44, reveal that sterilization is now the leading contraceptive method in the US, used by 33% of all contraceptors in 1982 (22%, female sterilization; 11% male sterilization), followed by the pill (29%), condom (12%), diaphragm (8%), and IUD (7%). Linked to this is the continuing decline in unwanted births since the baby boom peak in 1957, which accounted for nearly 1/2 of the drop between 1973 and 1982 in ever-married women's children ever born, from 2.2 to 1.9/woman. However, births conceived sooner than planned increased slightly among younger married women, probably due to the large drop in pill use since 1973 and increased use of the less effective diaphragm and condom among couples still intending to have more children. Black women are now more likely than white women to use the most effective female methods: female sterilization, pill, and IUD. Only 45% of women aged 15-44 in 1982 had used a contraceptive method at 1st intercourse. 4 out of 5 women married for the 1st time between 1975 and 1982 had intercourse before marriage. However, premarital sexual activity may be leveling off among white teenagers after a steep rise since the early 1970s and declining moderately among black teenagers. 16% of 1st marriages among ever-married women aged 15-44 in 1982 had been dissoved within 5 years, mostly by divorce or separation. 59% of black women with children in 1982 had their 1st birth before marriage, compared to 11% of white mothers. The proportion of babies who were breastfed more than doubled between 1970-71 and 1980-81, from 24 to 53%.     

Sex differences in valuations of the environment?

Sexual selection theory affords a rationale for predicting that men, especially young men, may be more willing than women to risk harms and to discount the future in the pursuit of short-term gains. These propositions apply to many domains of risky behavior, and it is likely that they apply to decisions involving potential harms to the environment and health hazards as well. Two preliminary studies of university subjects' responses to hypothetical dilemmas that support the predicted sex difference are described. Important understudied questions are, to what extent reckless risk acceptance may be mitigated by material wellbeing, by marriage, and by parenthood.     

Aversion to one risk in the presence of others

The more risk-averse of two individuals need not have the smaller certainty equivalent for a risk \~x if another risk or combination of risks w is present. It is shown that he must, however, if either individual's conditional certainty equivalent for x is increasing in w. For independent risks, this condition follows immediately if either individual is decreasingly risk-averse, giving a natural proof of a known result. Another short proof of this result and necessary and sufficient conditions in the independent case are give. For multivariate utilities, the corresponding results do not hold, but it is proved simply that any mixture of decreasingly risk-averse utilities is decreasingly risk-averse. Also touched upon are risk aversion's relation to generalized means, concave composition, risk sharing, and interest rates, the application of the results to discounting under uncertainty and selection of investment level, and their connection to singly crossing distributions, noise, and dominance.     

Validation of a Novel Air Toxic Risk Model with Air Monitoring

Three modeling systems were used to estimate human health risks from air pollution: two versions of MNRiskS (for Minnesota Risk Screening), and the USEPA National Air Toxics Assessment (NATA). MNRiskS is a unique cumulative risk modeling system used to assess risks from multiple air toxics, sources, and pathways on a local to a state‐wide scale. In addition, ambient outdoor air monitoring data were available for estimation of risks and comparison with the modeled estimates of air concentrations. Highest air concentrations and estimated risks were generally found in the Minneapolis‐St. Paul metropolitan area and lowest risks in undeveloped rural areas. Emissions from mobile and area (nonpoint) sources created greater estimated risks than emissions from point sources. Highest cancer risks were via ingestion pathway exposures to dioxins and related compounds. Diesel particles, acrolein, and formaldehyde created the highest estimated inhalation health impacts. Model‐estimated air concentrations were generally highest for NATA and lowest for the AERMOD version of MNRiskS. This validation study showed reasonable agreement between available measurements and model predictions, although results varied among pollutants, and predictions were often lower than measurements. The results increased confidence in identifying pollutants, pathways, geographic areas, sources, and receptors of potential concern, and thus provide a basis for informing pollution reduction strategies and focusing efforts on specific pollutants (diesel particles, acrolein, and formaldehyde), geographic areas (urban centers), and source categories (nonpoint sources). The results heighten concerns about risks from food chain exposures to dioxins and PAHs. Risk estimates were sensitive to variations in methodologies for treating emissions, dispersion, deposition, exposure, and toxicity.     

Evaluating multisystemic efforts to impact disproportionality through key decision points

Working in four communities, Casey Foundation/Center for the Study of Social Policy (CSSP) Alliance on Racial Equity (the Alliance) have developed a Racial Equity Scorecard for measuring disproportionality at key decision points for use in impacting disproportionality in the child welfare system. The four communities include King County, Washington; Guilford County, North Carolina; Ramsey County, Minnesota; and Woodbury County, Iowa. Data from one site--Woodbury County, Iowa--are used as an example. This article provides the background and method for identification and measurement of key decision points in the child welfare system to track change effected by multisystemic approaches to reduce disproportionality. Interpretation of the results in the scorecard is provided and recommendations for future interventions based on the data are discussed.     

Multimodal urgency coding: auditory, visual, and tactile parameters and their impact on perceived urgency

Through a series of investigations involving different levels of contextual fidelity we developed scales of perceived urgency for several dimensions of the auditory, visual, and tactile modalities. Psychophysical ratings of perceived urgency, annoyance, and acceptability as well as behavioral responses to signals in each modality were obtained and analyzed using Steven's Power Law to allow comparison across modalities. Obtained results and their implications for use as in-vehicle alerts and warnings are discussed.     

Dose–Response Modeling: Extrapolating From Experimental Data to Real‐World Populations

Dose–response modeling of biological agents has traditionally focused on describing laboratory‐derived experimental data. Limited consideration has been given to understanding those factors that are controlled in a laboratory, but are likely to occur in real‐world scenarios. In this study, a probabilistic framework is developed that extends Brookmeyer's competing‐risks dose–response model to allow for variation in factors such as dose‐dispersion, dose‐deposition, and other within‐host parameters. With data sets drawn from dose–response experiments of inhalational anthrax, plague, and tularemia, we illustrate how for certain cases, there is the potential for overestimation of infection numbers arising from models that consider only the experimental data in isolation.     

Theorizing conspiracy

Theory and Society -