Approximation of power in multivariate analysis

We consider the calculation of power functions in classical multivariate analysis. In this context, power can be expressed in terms of tail probabilities of certain noncentral distributions. The necessary noncentral distribution theory was developed between the 1940s and 1970s by a number of authors. However, tractable methods for calculating the relevant probabilities have been lacking. In this paper we present simple yet extremely accurate saddlepoint approximations to power functions associated with the following classical test statistics: the likelihood ratio statistic for testing the general linear hypothesis in MANOVA; the likelihood ratio statistic for testing block independence; and Bartlett's modified likelihood ratio statistic for testing equality of covariance matrices.     

Choice and circumstance: Qualitative insights into contemporary childlessness in Australia

Using data from in-depth interviews with 115 women, men and couples in eastern Australia for whom family formation was a recent, current or imminent future issue, this article explores contemporary childlessness among those physically able to have children. It differentiates between those childless by choice and by circumstance, and among other themes highlights (i) the role preservation of lifestyle appears to play as a motive for deliberate childlessness following development of a life course through early adulthood that both generates lifestyle aspirations and often places parenthood on the backburner until after age 30, and (ii) the roles difficulty forming suitable relationships, women’s desire for meaningful careers, and male involvement in family formation decisions play in bringing about childlessness by circumstance.     

论俄罗斯海洋强国战略

俄罗斯海洋强国战略是其强国战略的组成部分。总体上看,其根本目的是通过全面发展海洋事业谋求国家社会和经济的发展以及长治久安;其主要内容包括建设海洋经济强国、海军强国和海洋科技强国,其中,以发展海洋经济为重点,表现为开发海底油气资源、发展海上航运业、布局渔业产业、复兴船舶工业、恢复海军实力和开展海洋科学研究这六大方面。     

宋明地方志与南昌地区许逊信仰的变迁

在今江西南昌地区许逊信仰的历史变迁中,道教内外人士都对许逊形象进行过多重塑造,使其兼具道教与民间祠神的色彩。其间,除了《道藏》材料,宋明地方志起到独特作用。一方面,宋明方志在与许逊相关记载方面表现出的序列变化,与唐宋以来道教人士对许逊形象的重塑以及宋元净明道的发展同步;另一方面,由于唐宋时期的《图经》成为地方神祇进入祀典、走向合法化的重要载体,地方志又以儒家传统经典为收纳祠神的标准,这些影响到了明代南昌地区许逊形象的转变。通过明代地方志的再次塑造,许逊从一位斩蛟水神、道教真君、净明道祖师进而演变为一位符合儒家祭祀经典要求、有功于地方社会的福主,进入地方祀典。     

基于认知和情绪的个体内OCB和CWB的动态转化机制探究

近年来,组织公民行为(OCB)和反生产工作行为(CWB)的研究受到组织科学的关注。最新的研究已经逐渐将OCB和CWB概念化为情节性的行为,它们是随着时间而发生动态改变的行为序列。基于Lazarus的认知动机关系理论(CMR)和Weiss的情感事件理论(AET),采用个体内的方法,提出的以认知和情绪为中介,伴随着时间变化,OCB和CWB在个体内实现动态转化的理论框架模型,可以揭示OCB和CWB之间动态转化的本质,同时也可为组织干预——增加建设性行为(OCB)和减少破坏性行为(CWB)提供理论和方法的指导。     

可持续发展的障碍：越权的环境事件

为当代人带来好处的人为环境变化将会给后代人造成可预见的危害。因为“时滞效应”,这些环境变化产生的利弊在代际之间的分配极为殊异。包括生物多样性丧失和全球气候变化等,一些全球最大的环境问题就是如此。对于西方国家的政府而言,这些问题的棘手性不仅在于在实践中如何避免不受欢迎的政策选择,而且还是自由民主制的一个理论问题。当前的政治合法性概念授权政府依据当代公民的而不是后代公民的利益而采取行动。一个自由民主制的政府无权推行有益于后代人利益的政策,因为如果这样做会对当代选民产生束缚。这样做就是政府的越权——超越了决策的合法范围。结果就是所有环境事件几乎都超越了政府解决问题的权限,成为越权（ultra vires）的环境事件。可持续发展概念体现了代际公平,在这个意义上,当前的政治合法性概念就是在阻碍可持续发展。     

EC anti-dumping laws as a barrier to trade

Anti-dumping (AD) laws in the EC are intended to establish ‘fairness’ between trading partners. But there are negative effects, in particular, firms with weak firm specific advantages can shelter behind AD laws; they can even follow shelter-based strategies and lobby for protection.Alan Rugman and Michael Gestrin explain how shelter can be used as a management strategy, and how AD laws have grown up in the EC since 1979 to affect sectors of industry and geographic regions. They conclude by pointing out that a shelter-based strategy by a strong firm can undermine the very competitive pressures in its home market that made it internationally competitive in the first place.     

New contracts: The key to change

Successfully managing change in an organization is very difficult. Paul Strebel sets out a new way of doing this, based on contract theory which states that stakeholders have both an explicit and implicit individual contract with their companies. These contracts must be modified if corporate change is to proceed.The author develops five propositions about the role of contracts in change management. Change can only succeed if these five propositions are satisfied and the operational implications fully understood and implemented.