Covariance structure analysis via specification searches

Iterative model modification (specification searches) has become common practice in applications of covariance structure modeling techniques. The present analysis examines the reliability of a method for carrying out specification searches based on Lagrange multiplier and Wald tests. Results are compared to specification searches performed by means of likelihood ratio tests. Our findings indicate that neither of both methods is significantly superior to the other and that even in connection with very large samples, results from these search procedures can be relied upon only under favorable conditions. The authors therefore suggest the application of specification searches in a more restricted framework in which the parameters in that part of the model that is not subject to the search procedure are fixed. It is demonstrated that this concept enhances the likelihood of success of specification searches significantly.     

Probabilities and moments of generalized discrete distributfons using finite difference operators

The probabilities and factorial moments of the univar iate and multivariate generalized (or compound) discrete di st r-Lbut Lons with probability generating functions H(t)=F(G(t)) and H(t₁,…,t_k)=F(G(t₁,…,t_k))or H(t₁,…,t_k) = F(G₁(t₁),…, G_k( t_k)) are derived using finite difference operators.     

PRICES,INFLATION, AND SMOKING ONSET: THE CASE OF ARGENTINA

This article examines the effect of tobacco prices on the decision to start smoking in Argentina. Argentina is an interesting case to explore given its high smoking rates, its recent experience with periods of very high and hyperinflation, and the mixed evidence of the effect of prices on smoking onset, particularly in low‐ and middle‐income countries. We used data from four cycles of two large national surveys conducted between 2005 and 2011 and discrete‐time hazard models. We found that tobacco prices had a statistically significant and fairly large impact on the hazard of smoking onset, and these findings were robust to alternative specifications. We also found that prices had little effect on the hazards of smoking onset during periods of hyper‐ and very high inflation, which provide some support for the notion that prices lose their informational role in such periods. Governments need to be cognizant that their most important policy tool to reduce tobacco use—taxes that increase real tobacco prices—is likely no longer effective during these times. (JEL C41, H20, I12, I18)     

Extending pension coverage in Cambodia: The governance and investment challenges of the Social Security Investment Fund

Rapid economic growth, declining fertility and changes in family structures have encouraged the Kingdom of Cambodia to reform its old-age pension system. The Government of Cambodia reached an important milestone in 2019, when the Law on Social Security was promulgated. The Law includes provisions for a compulsory defined benefit pension scheme, establishing a sound framework for extending compulsory pension coverage beyond the public sector to formal private-sector workers. As a future step, the compulsory pension scheme should be extended to informal workers. To accompany the reform, the investment policy for the pension scheme’s reserve funds, including the supervisory regime and investment strategy, will be essential for the modernization of the Cambodian social security system. In this regard, Cambodia has successfully sought policy advice. However, the country should continue to seek further advice, and to act on this. Otherwise, the necessary and increasingly pressing policy ambitions of Cambodia to develop an adequate and sustainable social protection system may not be fully realized.     

The efficiency of price income situations,the real average income — a characterization

Since efficiency represents a measure of the average welfare level of the society it is often used as a synonym of “mean income” in (traditional) welfare measurement theory and neglects price information. In this note, we introduce a rather general concept of efficiency taking price information into account. Requiring some reasonable properties for efficiency judgements we look for real indicators, namely efficiency measures. By this axiomatic approach, we easily characterize a special class of (sequences of) functions that will turn out to be the real average income.     

Abel series distributions with applications to fluctuations of sample functions of stochastic processes

A two-parameter class of discrete distributions, Abel series distributions, generated by expanding a suitable pa,rametric function into a series of Abel polynomials is discussed. An Abel series distribution occurs in fluctuations of sample functions of stochastic processes and has applications in insurance risk, queueing, dam and storage processes. The probability generating function and the factorial moments of the Abel series distributions are obtained in closed forms. It is pointed out that the name of the generalized Poisson distribution of Consul and Jain is justified by the form of its generating function. Finally it is shown that this generalized Poisson distribution is the only member of the Abel series distributions which is closed under convolution.     

Exact Distributions of the Number of r-Records and the r-Record and Inter-r-Record Times

Consider a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables with an absolutely continuous distribution function. The probability functions of the numbers K_n,r and N_n,r of r-records up to time n of the first and second type, respectively, are obtained in terms of the non central and central signless Stirling numbers of the first kind. Also, the binomial moments of K_n,r and N_n,r are expressed in terms of the non central signless Stirling numbers of the first kind. The probability functions of the times L_k,r and T_k,r of the kth r-record of the first and second type, respectively, are deduced from those of K_n,r and N_n,r. A simple expression for the binomial moments of T_k,r is derived. Finally, the probability functions and binomial moments of the kth inter-r-record times U_k,r = L_k,r ? L_k?1,r and W_k,r = T_k,r ? T_k?1,r are obtained as sums of finite number of terms.     

Life on the Edge: Balancing Gendered and Occupational Identities among Unauthorized Mexican Migrant Roofers

Scholars have addressed the economic, gendered, and emotional dimensions of migration, especially as migrants move from origin to destination. However, scholarship on return migration and the subjective experiences of reintegrating to origin communities is poorly understood. In this paper, we examine the return migration of formerly unauthorized migrants who labored as roofers in the United States. We argue that the migration process redefines men’s masculinity as they attempt to balance family life in Mexico and their occupational lives in the U.S., all of which are essential for their identity but remain separated by an international border. We draw on 40 in-depth interviews with return migrant men in a small city in Guanajuato, Mexico to examine the emotional tensions men experience regarding the decision to remain in close proximity to family in Mexico and a desire to return again to their economically and emotionally fulfilling occupations in the U.S. We find that migrants’ nostalgia for prior U.S. labor market experience, in juxtaposition to reentry into the Mexican labor market, competes with current feelings of happiness and contentment obtained through family reintegration. These competing feelings, together with economic need, help explain the complex meaning of migration for return migrant men. We conclude by suggesting that once men have been exposed to U.S. life, the occupational identity becomes a “pull” that encourages future migration trips.