Pre- versus post-crisis central banking in Qatar

In the years before the global financial crisis of 2008–2010, Qatar experienced a huge build-up of liquidity surplus in the banking system, mainly driven by surging net capital inflows. This paper identifies various sources of interbank liquidity in Qatar and discusses the various implications of structural primary liquidity surplus for the money market in particular and the economy at large. The paper attempts to evaluate the Qatar Central Bank policy making and conduct during the pre- and post-crisis periods within a framework of the Austrian monetary overinvestment theories, and concludes that the central bank had forcibly committed several forced monetary policy mistakes, which resulted in a breakdown in the interest rate channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This led to the inability of the central bank to control the interbank interest rate and to an accelerating inflation rate during the pre-crisis years. In contrast, a dramatic change in the central bank's monetary policy framework and a deliberate monetary policy mistake on behalf of the central bank resulted in a restoration of the interest rate channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, stabilization of the interbank interest rate close to the central bank's policy rate and a sharp deceleration in the inflation rate in the post-crisis period. The paper concludes by offering brief policy recommendations.     

Frailty modeling for clustered survival data: an application to birth interval in Bangladesh

The present work demonstrates an application of random effects model for analyzing birth intervals that are clustered into geographical regions. Observations from the same cluster are assumed to be correlated because usually they share certain unobserved characteristics between them. Ignoring the correlations among the observations may lead to incorrect standard errors of the estimates of parameters of interest. Beside making the comparisons between Cox's proportional hazards model and random effects model for analyzing geographically clustered time-to-event data, important demographic and socioeconomic factors that may affect the length of birth intervals of Bangladeshi women are also reported in this paper.     

Global value chains for medical gloves during the COVID-19 pandemic: Confronting forced labour through public procurement and crisis

This paper evaluates ways in which labour issues in global value chains for medical gloves have been affected by, and addressed through, the COVID-19 pandemic. It focuses on production in Malaysia and supply to the United Kingdom's National Health Service and draws on a large-scale survey with workers and interviews with UK government officials, suppliers and buyers. Adopting a Global Value Chain (GVC) framework, the paper shows how forced labour endemic in the sector was exacerbated during the pandemic in the context of increased demand for gloves. Attempts at remediation are shown to operate through both a reconfigured value chain in which power shifted dramatically to the manufacturers and a context where public procurement became higher in profile than ever before. It is argued that the purchasing power of governments must be leveraged in ways that more meaningfully address labour issues, and that this must be part of value chain resilience.     

Correlation Between Perception-Based Journal Rankings and the Journal Impact Factor (JIF): A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

This study, based on systematic review and meta-analysis, aimed to collect and analyze evidence on correlation between perception-based journal rankings and the most popular citation-based measure, Thomson Reuters Journal Impact Factor (JIF). A search was conducted in the Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar databases. After the screening of titles, abstracts, and full text, 18 articles were selected as eligible for review and analysis. The included studies belonged to various subject areas in social sciences, science, and technology. The correlation coefficients found in most of the studies were statistically significant in a positive direction. The heterogeneity test was positive. Therefore, the random-effect method of meta-analysis was applied. The value of pooled correlation coefficient indicated a moderate positive relationship between two methods of assessing the quality of academic journals. The absence of a high correlation makes decision making based on a single ranking method dangerous. Therefore, a hybrid approach for journal assessment is recommended.     

Tests for noncorrelation of two multivariate ARMA time series

In many situations, we want to verify the existence of a relationship between multivariate time series. In this paper, we generalize the procedure developed by Haugh (1976) for univariate time series in order to test the hypothesis of noncorrelation between two multivariate stationary ARMA series. The test statistics are based on residual cross-correlation matrices. Under the null hypothesis of noncorrelation, we show that an arbitrary vector of residual cross-correlations asymptotically follows the same distribution as the corresponding vector of cross-correlations between the two innovation series. From this result, it follows that the test statistics considered are asymptotically distributed as chi-square random variables. Two test procedures are described. The first one is based on the residual cross-correlation matrix at a particular lag, whilst the second one is based on a portmanteau type statistic that generalizes Haugh's statistic. We also discuss how the procedures for testing noncorrelation can be adapted to determine the directions of causality in the sense of Granger (1969) between the two series. An advantage of the proposed procedures is that their application does not require the estimation of a global model for the two series. The finite-sample properties of the statistics introduced were studied by simulation under the null hypothesis. It led to modified statistics whose upper quantiles are much better approximated by those of the corresponding chi-square distribution. Finally, the procedures developed are applied to two different sets of economic data.     

Druz’ia ponevole: Rossiia i bukharskie evrei, 1800–1917 [Reluctant Friends: Russia and Bukharan Jews, 1800–1917]

Jewish Themes in Contemporary Hungarian Literature

Avraham Bogatir. Napja (Seven Days in the‐ Life of Abraham Bogatir), by György G. Kardos. Budapest, Magvetö, 1968 and 1969. 427 pp. Ft. 1950.

Hova Tuntek a Katonak? (Where Did All the Soldiers Go?), by György G. Kardos. Budapest, Magvetö, 1971. 282 pp. Ft. 15.00.

Varakozok Lakomaja (The Banquet of Those that Wait), by Imre Keszi. Budapest, Magvetö, 1969. 214 pp. Ft. 17.50.

Soviet Yiddish Book on the Kaunas Ghetto

Zeyere. Blikn Hobn Zikh Bagegnt (Their Eyes Met), by Meyer Yelin.¹ Moscow, Sovetsky Pisatel, 1972. 382 pp.

An Opportunity Missed

The Jews of Poland, by Bernard D. Weinryb. Philadelphia, The Jewish Publication Society of America, 1973. xvi, (2) 424 pp. $10.00.

A Source of Holocaust History

Wicher Wolnosci. Dziennik Powstanca, by Waclaw Zagorski, London 1957 (English edition, Seventy Days, translated by D. J. Welsh, London 1957, 2nd ed. 1959). 391 pp.

Wolnosc W Niewoli (Freedom in Captivity), isdem, London 1971. 543 pp.

Useful Compendia on Communism

Biographical Dictionary of the Comintern, by Branko Lazitch in collaboration with Milorad M. Drachkovitch, Stanford, California, Hoover Institution Press, Stanford University, 1973. xxxxii, 458 pp. $15.00.

World Communism: A Handbook 1918–1965, ed. by Witold S. Sworakowski, Stanford, California, Hoover Institution Press, Stanford University, 1973. xv, 576 pp. Appendix. Index of Persons. Index of Subjects. $25.00.

A Soviet Exposition of Extremist Views

Istochnik Opasnogo Krizisa (Rol Sionizma V Razzhiganii Konflikta Na Blizhnem Vostoke) — The Source of a Dangerous Crisis (The Role of Zionism in Unleashing the Middle East Conflict), by V. P. Ladeykin. Moscow, Izdatelstvo Politicheskoy Literatury, 1973. 296 pp. 1 r. 08 k.     

Project agility assessment: an integrated decision analysis approach

Agility is the ability of a project to respond to a changing environment effectively. This may include the capability of a project to be adapted to the dynamism that exists in the stakeholders’ needs, technological changes, etc. To assure such a capability, it is necessary to assess the extent of projects’ adaptability to change. This could be done by expressing the agility in terms of some quantifiable parameters such as size of the project's organisation, levels of expertise, etc. However, there are uncertainties embedded in measurement of such parameters caused by imprecision and lack of well-defined information, which cannot be well treated by conventional assessment approaches. To address such a complexity, in this article, a decision aid model using fuzzy set theory is proposed for agility assessment of projects. The applicability of the proposed model will be demonstrated by a case study in software development project management.     

Anopheles subpictus Grassi: Observations on survivorship and population size using mark-release-recapture and dissection methods

Summary A mark-release-recapture experiment to estimate population survivorship and absolute size was performed with wild-caughtAn. subpictus adults at the village of Khano-Harni, Lahore District, Punjab Province, Pakistan during September 1978, the end of the monsoon rainy season, when temporal population abundance was maximized. Daily survival rate estimated from the recapture sequence of marked adults was low, males=0.192 and females=0.343. Survivorship for females estimated by several vertical age-grading procedures ranged from 0.347 to 0.628. Both stage- and age-specific life tables were calculated from vertical age-grading data determined by the dilatation method. Female and male population size was estimated byBailey’s modification of theLincoln Index and was found to average 4478.4 and 6106.8, respectively. The bionomics, survivorship and population size ofAn. subpictus in the Lahore are indicated that this species was probably not important in the transmission of human malaria.     

Effective International Tourism Management: A Strategic Approach

The objective of the study was to explore the relationship between international tourism indicators, crime rate, and vulnerability in a panel of 16 tourist-oriented countries over the period of 1990–2014. The study constructed a vulnerability index by using three socioeconomic factors, (1) poverty, (2) income inequality, and (3) unemployment rate. The results show that crime rate and vulnerability both decreases international tourism demand, which were mediated through inadequate education and health resources. Trade openness moderately supported the international tourism demand under the crime rate and vulnerability index. The results confirmed the crime Kuznets curve that turned into inverted U-shaped relationship between crime rate and per capita income, while this relationship was not confirmed for vulnerability index. The panel causality relationships confirmed the unidirectional causality between crime-vulnerability and international tourism. Growth-fueled tourism demand was analyzed under a crime and vulnerability index. The study concludes that international tourism is an implied solution to reduce human costs by involving tourists to in pleasure activities to at tourists’ destinations.     

Two-Dimensional Warranty Cost Analysis for Second-Hand Products

In spite of the recent steady increase of the volume of the second-hand markets, often customers remain in doubt regarding the quality and durability of the second-hand products. Aiming to reduce and share this uncertainty, dealers offer warranty on their products. Offering warranty for second-hand products is a relatively new marketing strategy employed by dealers of used electronic equipment, furniture, automobiles, etc. Usually, for used products, the dealer's expected warranty cost is a function of product reliability, past age and usage, servicing strategy and conditions and terms of the warranty policy/contract. Sometimes the offered policy is limited by two parameters, typically the product age and usage after the sale. This type of policies is referred to as two-dimensional warranty policies. In this article, we develop statistical models for estimating the dealer's expected warranty cost for second-hand products sold with two-dimensional free repair/replacement warranty.