MARKET STRUCTURE AND MEDIA DIVERSITY

We estimate a mixed logit model of the demand for local news service. Results provide evidence that suggest the representative consumer values more diverse news, more coverage of multicultural issues, and more information on community news, and has a distaste for advertising. Demand estimates are used to calculate the impact on consumer welfare from a marginal decrease in the number of independent television stations that lowers the amount of diversity, multiculturalism, community news, and advertising. Consumer welfare decreases, but the losses are smaller in large markets. For example, small‐market consumers lose $45 million annually while large‐market consumers lose $13 million. (JEL C9, C25, L13, L82, L96)     

Substance use among older youth transitioning from foster care: Examining the protective effects of religious and spiritual capital

Among older youth transitioning from the foster care system, this longitudinal study examined the association of religious and spiritual capital to substance use in the past year at age 19. Participants consisted of African American (N = 179) and White non‐Hispanic (N = 133) older youth in foster care. Drawing from social capital theory, it was posited that religious service attendance (a proxy for religious capital) and belief in a spiritual force (a proxy for spiritual capital) would be inversely associated with substance use. Multiple logistic regression results indicated support for the first and second hypothesis for White foster youth only. Among White foster youth, more frequent religious service attendance and greater belief in a spiritual force were associated with a lower likelihood of illegal substance and polysubstance use. No association between religious or spiritual capital and substance use was found among African American foster youth. The findings underscore the importance of conducting spiritual assessments to help ensure older foster youth who have strong religious or spiritual orientations are in environments where they are accommodated and supported.     

An intuitive risk factors search algorithm: usage of the Bayesian network technique in personalized medicine

The article focuses on the application of the Bayesian networks (BN) technique to problems of personalized medicine. The simple (intuitive) algorithm of BN optimization with respect to the number of nodes using naive network topology is developed. This algorithm allows to increase the BN prediction quality and to identify the most important variables of the network. The parallel program implementing the algorithm has demonstrated good scalability with an increase in the computational cores number, and it can be applied to the large patients database containing thousands of variables. This program is applied for the prediction for the unfavorable outcome of coronary artery disease (CAD) for patients who survived the acute coronary syndrome (ACS). As a result, the quality of the predictions of the investigated networks was significantly improved and the most important risk factors were detected. The significance of the tumor necrosis factor-alpha gene polymorphism for the prediction of the unfavorable outcome of CAD for patients survived after ACS was revealed for the first time.     

DIVERSIFICATION GAINS FROM INCLUDING REAL ESTATE IN MIXED-ASSET PORTFOLIOS*

Diversification gains in mean-variance efficiency derived from including real estate in financial asset portfolios are examined. Optimal financial and mixed-asset portfolios were generated by selecting from an investment universe including several distinct financial and real estate media. Deficiencies of previous studies were overcome by employing data with improved representativeness and comparability. The efficient mixed-asset portfolios dominated the efficient financial asset portfolios implying that purely financial asset diversification is inefficient. The optimal mixed-asset portfolio prescribed that approximately two-thirds of the investment wealth be allocated to real estate and one-third to the financial media.     

Automating argument construction

Over the past five years the Artificial Intelligence Center at SRI has been developing a new technology to address the problem of automated information management within real- world contexts. The result of this work is a body of techniques for automated reasoning from evidence that we call evidential reasoning. The techniques are based upon the mathematics of belief functions developed by Dempster and Shafer and have been successfully applied to a variety of problems including computer vision, multisensor integration, and intelligence analysis.

We have developed both a formal basis and a framework for implementating automated reasoning systems based upon these techniques. Both the formal and practical approach can be divided into four parts: (1) specifying a set of distinct propositional spaces, (2) specifying the interrelationships among these spaces, (3) representing bodies of evidence as belief distributions, and (4) establishing paths of the bodies for evidence to move through these spaces by means of evidential operations, eventually converging on spaces where the target questions can be answered. These steps specify a means for arguing from multiple bodies of evidence toward a particular (probabilistic) conclusion. Argument construction is the process by which such evidential analyses are constructed and is the analogue of constructing proof trees in a logical context.

This technology features the ability to reason from uncertain, incomplete, and occasionally inaccurate information based upon seven evidential operations: fusion, discounting, translation, projection, summarization, interpretation, and gisting. These operation are theoretically sound but have intuitive appeal as well.

In implementing this formal approach, we have found that evidential arguments can be represented as graphs. To support the construction, modification, and interrogation of evidential arguments, we have developed Gister. Gister provides an interactive, menu-driven, graphical interface that allows these graphical structures to be easily manipulated.

Our goal is to provide effective automated aids to domain experts for argument construction. Gister represents our first attempt at such an aid.     

Nest predators,but not nest survival,differ between adjacent urban habitats

Growing human populations make it imperative for ecologists to identify strategies to conserve biodiversity in human-dominated landscapes, such as cities. Effects of urbanization on birds are particularly well-studied, but questions remain regarding the best conservation approaches. Debate about the relative utility of focusing conservation efforts on nature reserves versus developed lands has focused largely on comparing species abundance or presence, with few studies addressing underlying behavioral or demographic mechanisms. Here we evaluated differences in avian reproductive success in nature reserves and matrix habitats to test the assumption that nest predation is lower within areas protected from development. Specifically, we investigated 1) whether nest survival differed in replicated pairs of forest parks and residential neighborhoods and 2) whether differences in nest survival were associated with changes in which species most frequently depredated nests. From April–August 2007–2014, we monitored nests of two native birds, American robin (Turdus migratorius) and northern cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis), and video-documented nest predators in paired forest-matrix habitats in the Columbus, Ohio metropolitan area. We found similar rates of nest survival in the two habitats for both robins (Χ²₁?=?0.715, p?=?0.398, n?=?741 nests) and cardinals (Χ²₁?=?0.926, p?=?0.336, n?=?1156 nests), but interactions between predators and prey differed. In particular, domestic cats (Felis catus) were over five times as likely to depredate cardinal nests in matrix habitats versus forest parks (Χ²₁?=?7.24, simulated p?=?0.010; n_forest?=?3, n_matrix?=?7). Our results suggest that at least in some circumstances, nest success of native birds may be equivalent between nature reserves and adjacent residential matrix habitats, and thus residential neighborhoods may contribute positively to bird conservation in urban landscapes.     

Landscape urbanization threatens plant phylogenetic diversity in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Urbanization causes species loss around the world, but its effects on phylogenetic diversity are poorly known in tropical forests. Using a patch-landscape approach in an urbanizing region of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, we tested whether the increase in landscape urbanization reduces plant species density, phylogenetic richness and divergence, and increases the relatedness among co-occurring individuals and species. We assessed plant responses to urbanization in adult (diameter at breast height?>?10 cm) and sapling communities (2.5–10 cm diameter) separately, as saplings are proxies of the future flora. We sampled 2860 woody plants belonging to 155 species in nine circular landscapes with urbanization level varying from 0% to 45%, and estimated the relatedness among the species that have increased and decreased in relative abundance in more urbanized landscapes (winner and losers, respectively). As expected, species density and phylogenetic richness decreased with the increase in urbanization. These responses were consistent for adult and sapling communities, suggesting a persistent loss of species and lineages in more urbanized landscapes. Contrary to our expectations, phylogenetic divergence and structure did not respond to urbanization, indicating that the more urbanized landscapes still retain much evolutionary history. However, because the relatedness among winners was greater than among losers, it is likely that the phylogenetic divergence gradually reduces and the relatedness increases, resulting in impoverished forests with uncertain ability to provide ecosystem services such as carbon storage and pest control. This environmental cost should be taken into account to align urban sprawl with biodiversity conservation.     

The relationship between Black and gay community involvement and HIV-related risk behaviors among Black men who have sex with men

Black gay men must navigate identities and stigmas related to being gay and Black, and report higher HIV incidence relative to their White male counterparts although they report lower rates of drug use and risky sexual behaviors. This study examined whether closeness to the gay or Black community correlated with HIV-related risk and protective behaviors. Data were drawn from uConnect, a population-based cohort study of young Black men who have sex with men (YBMSM) on Chicago's South Side. The sample consists of 618 Black MSM ranging in age from 16 to 29. Cross-sectional measures for this study include Black and gay community closeness, drug use, sexual risk behaviors, HIV testing, and health promotion behaviors. Closeness with the gay community was associated with greater pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) knowledge as well as participating in health promotion programs along with higher rates of transactional sex and having sex under the influence of substances, and increased odds of self-reported HIV seropositivity. Involvement in the Black community was associated with lower odds of reporting being HIV positive. Findings suggest that programs and initiatives are needed to help promote the positive aspects of the Black and gay communities, while minimizing the negative correlates of such involvements.     

Quick,uncertain, and delayed adults: timing,sequencing and duration of youth-adult transitions in Canada

The transition from youth to adulthood in western societies has become more prolonged and complex as traditional societal norms have lost influence. Using retrospective data from a cohort of 43-year-old Canadians surveyed in 2010 (n?=?405), we mapped the timing, sequencing, and duration of ‘first stage’ youth-adult transitions (leaving home, finishing formal education, obtaining a full-time job) and ‘second stage’ youth-adult transitions (marriage, parenthood, home ownership). Latent profile analysis identified five distinct transition profiles – norm-setters, quick adults, uncertain adults, adult students, and delayed adults – with different amounts and timing of post-secondary educational investment playing an important profile-shaping role. Although youth-adult transitions have become less standardized and more individualized, especially for first stage transitions, these transitions are still quite structured and continue to be affected by gender and family socioeconomic status.