QUESTION WORDING AND PARTISANSHIP: CHANGE AND CONTINUITY IN PARTY LOYALTIES DURING THE 1992 ELECTION CAMPAIGN

Gallup macropartisanship varies more over time than aggregatemeasures of partisanship employing the standard Michigan SurveyResearch Center (SRC) party identification measure, but previousanalyses do not provide direct evidence about why Gallup macropartisanshipis more variable. Although these differences could result fromthe short-term focus of the Gallup party affiliation question,aggregate-level analyses cannot test the effects of questionwording directly. Between March and October 1992, we conducteda series of question-wording experiments, employing six statewidecomputer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) surveys of Michiganadults, including a four-wave panel study. Our analyses stronglysuggest that the Gallup measure responds more to short-termpolitical conditions and clearly demonstrate that the Gallupmeasure is less stable over time. These individual-level resultshelp explain why Gallup macropartisanship varies more over timethan aggregate measures of partisanship employing the standardSRC measure and raise questions about the degree to which onecan generalize from analyses using the Gallup data to the researchliterature on party identification.     

Government Risk Management Priorities: A Comparison of the Preferences of Asian Indian Americans and Other Americans

A survey was conducted of approximately 200 Asian Indian Americans and 200 other residents of New Jersey in order to understand the risk management priorities that they want government to have. We found that Asian Indian Americans, especially younger women, focused on personal/family risks, such as alcohol and drug abuse, sexual abuse, and domestic violence. The New Jersey comparison group, in contrast, placed war/terrorism and loss of health care services and insurance at the top of their priorities for government. These results suggest stressful acculturation-related issues within the Asian Indian community. Both populations want more risk management from government than they believe government is currently providing. Respondents who wanted more from government tended to dread the risk, be fearful of the consequences, trust government, and have a feeling of personal efficacy. Within the Asian Indian American sample, wide variations were observed by language spoken at home and religious affiliation. Notably, Muslims and Hindi language speakers tended not to trust government and hence wanted less government involvement. This study supports our call for studies of recent migrant populations and Johnson's for testing ethnic identity and acculturation as factors in risk judgments.     

The transition to parenthood in Puerto Rico: Occupational status and the timing of first births

This study examines the relationship between occupational status and fertility timing during a period of rapid development in Puerto Rico. Our fundamental hypothesis is that women with higher status occupations face greater opportunity costs than those with less valued jobs and therefore will be more likely to postpone parenthood until later ages than women without such high costs. We test this hypothesis using event history techniques with data from the 1982 Puerto Rico Fertility and Family Planning Assessment, an island-wide survey of women between the ages of 15 and 49. The analysis examines the effects of occupational status on the timing of first births, and finds strong support for the basic hypothesis, especially regarding the post-ponement of teen births. After the teen years, the effects are less pronounced. Overall, it appears that employment opportunities have played an important role in childbearing decisions in Puerto Rico.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Denver, Colorado, 30 April–2 May 1992.     

盆景风格因子初探

盆景艺术风格是盆景艺术家的创作个性在作品中的外在表现 ,它对盆景艺术的发展起着很重要的作用 ,人们对盆景的感性认识直接来源于盆景的风格。大部分盆景方面的书和文章都会涉及到盆景艺术风格的问题 ,但是 ,迄今为止对盆景艺术风格的形成和发展进行过系统研究的人还不是很多。基于对艺术发展规律和中国各种艺术风格盆景发展历史的研究 ,该文详细论述了影响盆景艺术风格形成和发展的内在、外在因素及它们之间的关系 ,并对怎样给我国盆景艺术注入新的活力提出了一些建议 ,对我国盆景艺术的发展和创新起到一定的指导作用     

ELICITING A DIRECTED ACYCLIC GRAPH FOR A MULTIVARIATE TIME SERIES OF VEHICLE COUNTS IN A TRAFFIC NETWORK

The problem of modelling multivariate time series of vehicle counts in traffic networks is considered. It is proposed to use a model called the linear multiregression dynamic model (LMDM). The LMDM is a multivariate Bayesian dynamic model which uses any conditional independence and causal structure across the time series to break down the complex multivariate model into simpler univariate dynamic linear models. The conditional independence and causal structure in the time series can be represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). The DAG not only gives a useful pictorial representation of the multivariate structure, but it is also used to build the LMDM. Therefore, eliciting a DAG which gives a realistic representation of the series is a crucial part of the modelling process. A DAG is elicited for the multivariate time series of hourly vehicle counts at the junction of three major roads in the UK. A flow diagram is introduced to give a pictorial representation of the possible vehicle routes through the network. It is shown how this flow diagram, together with a map of the network, can suggest a DAG for the time series suitable for use with an LMDM.     

Adaptive Management: A Paradigm for Remediation of Public Facilities Following a Terrorist Attack

Terrorist actions are aimed at maximizing harm (health, psychological, economical, and political) through the combined physical impacts of the act and fear. Immediate and effective response to a terrorist act is critical to limit human and environmental harm, effectively restore facility function, and maintain public confidence. Though there have been terrorist attacks in public facilities that we have learned from, overall our experiences in restoration of public facilities following a terrorist attack are limited. Restoration of public facilities following a release of a hazardous material is inherently far more complex than in industrial settings and has many unique technical, economic, social, and political challenges. For example, there may be a great need to quickly restore the facility to full operation and allow public access even though it was not designed for easy or rapid restoration, and critical information is needed for quantitative risk assessment and effective restoration must be anticipated to be incomplete and uncertain. Whereas present planning documents have substantial linearity in their organization, the “adaptive management” paradigm provides a constructive parallel paradigm for restoration of public facilities that anticipates and plans for uncertainty, inefficiencies, and stakeholder participation. Adaptive management grew out of the need to manage and restore natural resources in highly complex and changing environments with limited knowledge about causal relationships and responses to restoration actions. Similarities between natural resource management and restoration of a public facility after a terrorist attack suggest that integration of adaptive management principles explicitly into restoration processes will result in substantially enhanced and flexible responses necessary to meet the uncertainties of potential terrorist attacks.     

Nonresponse weighting adjustment using estimated response probability

To reduce nonresponse bias in sample surveys, a method of nonresponse weighting adjustment is often used which consists of multiplying the sampling weight of the respondent by the inverse of the estimated response probability. The authors examine the asymptotic properties of this estimator. They prove that it is generally more efficient than an estimator which uses the true response probability, provided that the parameters which govern this probability are estimated by maximum likelihood. The authors discuss variance estimation methods that account for the effect of using the estimated response probability; they compare their performances in a small simulation study. They also discuss extensions to the regression estimator.     

经济系统的演化与政策作用

该文根据耗散结构的基本原理 ,将经济系统划分为平衡态、过渡态和自组织状态。并将政策因素看成是一种外部调控手段 ,分析了在经济系统的不同状态下 ,政策因素对改变系统的结构及变化趋势所起的不同作用