Family transitions in Young Adulthood

Using the first (1995) and third (2001-2002) waves of the Add Health survey, we examine women 's family transitions up to age 24. Only a third of all women marry, and a fifth of those marriages dissolve before age 24. Three out of eight women have afirst birth, with a substantial majority of those births outside of marriage: 66% for whites, 96% for blacks, and 72% for Mexican Americans. Cohabitation is the predominant union form; 59% of women cohabit at least once by age 24. Most cohabitations are short lived, with approximately one in five resulting in a marriage. We summarize the family and relationship experience of women up to age 24 in terms offour categories, each accounting for roughly a quarter of all women. Category 1 has the women who remain single nonparents. Category 2 has the early marriers, women whose marriage is not preceded by a first birth. Category 3 has those who become single parents. Category 4 has the women who cohabit at least once, but who do not marry or have a birth by age 24. The strictly ordered transitions of the 1950s are long gone and have been replaced by a variety of paths to adulthood.     

Measuring longevity achievements under welfare interdependencies: a case for joint life expectancy indicators

Whereas period life expectancy constitutes an intuitive indicator of the survival conditions prevailing at a particular period, this paper argues that, given the existence of welfare interdependencies, that widespread indicator is nonetheless an incomplete measure of the longevity achievements relevant for human well-being. The central importance of coexistence for human-beings implies that usual life expectancy measures should be complemented by joint life expectancy indicators, which measure the average coexistence time under particular survival conditions. After a study of the theoretical foundations of ‘single’ and ‘joint’ life expectancy indicators, it is shown that joint life expectancy measures tend to enrich significantly the comparison of longevity achievements across countries and periods. Moreover, the introduction of joint life expectancy indicators—as a complement to conventional life expectancy measures—into multi-variable indexes such as the United Nations’ HDI is also shown to affect international rankings of standards of living to a non negligible extent.

Are there gender and country of origin differences in immigrant labor market outcomes across European destinations?

The 1994–2000 waves of the European Community Household Panel are used to study the earnings of immigrants as compared to native workers in 15 European countries. At the time of arrival, there is a significant negative partial effect of foreign birth on individual earnings compared to the native born in the destination of around 40%. These differences vary across origins and destinations and by gender. Immigrant earnings catch-up to those of the native born after around 18 years in the destination. Schooling matters more for earnings for women, whereas, language skills are relatively more important for men.

Colourism and African–american wealth: evidence from the nineteenth-century south

Black is not always black. Subtle distinctions in skin tone translate into significant differences in outcomes. Data on more than 15,000 households interviewed during the 1860 US federal census exhibit sharp differences in wealth holdings between white, mulatto, and black households in the urban South. We document these differences, investigate relationships between wealth and recorded household characteristics, and decompose the wealth gaps to examine the returns to racial characteristics. The analysis reveals a distinct racial hierarchy. Black wealth was only 20% of white wealth, but mulattoes held nearly 50% of whites’ wealth. This advantage is consistent with colourism, the favouritism shown to those of lighter complexion.

ATTITUDES TOWARDS THE EURO: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY BASED ON THE GERMAN SOCIO-ECONOMIC PANEL (SOEP)

This paper investigates changing attitudes towards the euro over time in Germany using longitudinal micro-data from the German Socio Economic Panel Study. We observe that a large part of the German population was worried about the new currency both before and after its introduction. Social psychological theories provide insight into these attitudes. Concerns regarding the euro are apparently connected with problems in handling the new currency and with the press coverage of price rises. For these reasons, future EMU member states should prepare their populations better for these challenges.     

A class of weighted dependence measures for bivariate failure time data

This paper considers a class of summary measures of the dependence between a pair of failure time variables over a finite follow-up region. The class consists of measures that are weighted averages of local dependence measures, and includes the cross-ratio-measure and finite region version of Kendall's τ; recently proposed by the authors. Two new special cases are identified that can avoid the need to estimate the bivariate survivor function and that admit explicit variance estimators. Nonparametric estimators of such dependence measures are proposed and are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal with variances that can be consistently estimated. Properties of selected estimators are evaluated in a simulation study, and the method is illustrated through an analysis of Australian Twin Study data.     

Standard errors for EM estimation

The EM algorithm is a popular method for computing maximum likelihood estimates. One of its drawbacks is that it does not produce standard errors as a by-product. We consider obtaining standard errors by numerical differentiation. Two approaches are considered. The first differentiates the Fisher score vector to yield the Hessian of the log-likelihood. The second differentiates the EM operator and uses an identity that relates its derivative to the Hessian of the log-likelihood. The well-known SEM algorithm uses the second approach. We consider three additional algorithms: one that uses the first approach and two that use the second. We evaluate the complexity and precision of these three and the SEM in algorithm seven examples. The first is a single-parameter example used to give insight. The others are three examples in each of two areas of EM application: Poisson mixture models and the estimation of covariance from incomplete data. The examples show that there are algorithms that are much simpler and more accurate than the SEM algorithm. Hopefully their simplicity will increase the availability of standard error estimates in EM applications. It is shown that, as previously conjectured, a symmetry diagnostic can accurately estimate errors arising from numerical differentiation. Some issues related to the speed of the EM algorithm and algorithms that differentiate the EM operator are identified.     

Suicide and mental health problems among Swedish youth in the wake of the 1990s recession

The purpose of this explorative study is to bring together a variety of Swedish data sources with indicators of youth mental health and living conditions in order to illuminate trends during the last decades, elucidate possible determinants of mental ill health and develop hypotheses to explain the observed trend patterns. The analyses in the study reveal some surprising inconsistencies with respect to the mental health trends among young people during the 1990s. Most striking is the pattern of increasing youth unemployment coinciding with almost inverse trends in the rates of suicide. The secular trends in fatal suicides during this period do not show any increase but some actual decrease in sub‐populations despite high sustained levels of unemployment. In contrast, survey data indicate that the general mental health of youth during this period appears to have deteriorated.     

Testing for No Effect by Cosine Series Methods

The properties of three lack-of-fit tests that are related to non-parametric cosine regression analysis are examined in the context of testing for a constant mean function. Analytic power comparisons of these tests vs a most powerful test are made using intermediate asymptotic relative efficiency. In particular, a data-driven test is produced which is asymptotically as efficient as the most powerful test over a class of alternatives. A small scale simulation experiment is conducted to ascertain the extent that the large sample comparisons are applicable to finite samples.